Nuffnang

Wednesday, 23 July 2014

[6963] VS



公司的背景 | Company Background

如果投资者只以一般的方式去看待威城的数据,这间公司将会变成一个弃婴。投资要看未来,也要了解公司生意的性质。数据如低ROE,低盈利率,高债务,通通都不能带上用场。值得参考的数据有如现金流和营业额。可以带来盈利率变化的情况包括新产品的盈利率,运营成本和材料成本控制,货币兑换率的波动。

简单来形容,【威城】是一间做代工生意的公司。这类生意的盈利率会很低,也很依赖主要顾客给的订单。所以,业绩一般都会有很大的波动。每当大经济变坏,营业额就会大跌。主要原因是其顾客给的生意被影响而导致的连锁反应。其次,只要有某个大顾客退出或大量减少公司的订单,业绩就会变得很难看。观察过去10年业绩的波动,就明白背后的原理了。

在现有的情况,高应收债和高存货,都代表业绩转折点的现象。只有得到陆续增长的订单,才会造成现有的情况。

This company will become an abandoned selection if investors using a common view to look on its fundamental figure. We must invest on the future and understand the nature of the company business. Data such as low ROE, low profit margin and high debt, all are not suitable to make valuation for this company. Cash flow and revenue will be a good reference for fundamental valuation. Profitability is subject to change, including net profit of new products, operating costs and material costs control, fluctuations in currency exchange rates.

In brief, VS is a contract manufacturer doing OEM business for their customers. The profit margin for such business will be low naturally and very dependent on major customers for orders. Therefore, the results generally have large fluctuations. When economy in deterioration, turnover will collapse. The main reason is the business of its customers to be affected and cause a chain reaction. Secondly, if there is a major customer exit or significantly reduce the company's orders, the performance will becomes very bad. By looking on its performance over the past 10 years, we can understand the rationale behind the business nature.

In the current case, the high debt and high inventory accounts, represents a turning point in the performance of the phenomenon. Only get another increase orders, giving rise to the current situation.


每季/每年业绩 | Quarterly/Yearly Results


注:Q3FY2014带来了一笔外汇亏损,负数RM4.4mil。
ATTN: Q3FY2014 reported a derivative loss on currency forward contracts of -RM4.4mil.


三十大股东 | Top 30 Shareholders

大型投资机构,总共有7个。如果没有错,比去年增加了3个。
Total of 7 substantial investment institutions holding the company share. If not mistaken, it has increased 3 compared to last year.


分部业绩 | Segment Results

在Q1-3FY2014大马的分部业绩,可以看到盈利率会比去年好,反而营业额比较不达标。但是,重点不在Q1-3FY2014,而是接下来的下一季和未来。
印尼的部分,没什么影响力。不多谈。
去年把中国的子公司(VSIG)股份增加了17.18%。现在公司以53.84%持股率来掌控子公司的运作决定权。主要原因是来稳定零件供应给予大马的生产线。暂时子公司还是在亏损的状况。只要管理层成功把中国子公司的运作费管理好,就会把公司的盈利再步提高。

Malaysia segment results in Q1-3FY2014, we can see the profit margin is better than last year. But the revenue is less impressive than last year. However, the focus is not Q1-3FY2014, but next quarter onwards.
For Indonesia segment, it is not significant. Thus, just ignore it.
In last year, company has increased of 17.18% shareholding in VSIG, a subsidiary in China. As of now, the company has 53.84% shareholding ratio to control the operation decision of the subsidiary. The main reason is to give a stable supply of spare parts to Malaysia's production lines. At the moment, VSIG is still making loss. If the management succeeds to make a good operating costs control on VSIG, it will further improve the company's profitability.


买点 | Buy Points

1. 自从DYSON这位大顾客离去大部分产品生产线后,Keurig Green Mountain化身为其身边更大的巨人。Keurig Green Mountain的合作伙伴包括SUBWAY(全世界最多连锁店的公司),STARBUCKS,COCA-COLA,NESTLE,等等的消费大品牌公司。
2. 新咖啡机组装生产线在5月正式投入运作。6月新款咖啡机产量将达到10万台,而7月数量更将倍增。这代表FY14Q3的业绩(二月至四月),是还没有新厂带来的贡献。所以,FY14Q4的业绩预测会非常亮眼。【22-Jul-14 產能料雙位數增長‧威城財測調高
3. 股息政策:盈利派发率为最少40%或以上。盈利上升,股息也会跟着上。
4. 很好的股息派发记录。也有给分红和派库存股(现在有超过0.6%)的习惯。

以上简单又非凡的状况,已经有足够理由让我去投资【威城】了。
笔者的平均买入价为RM1.61。

1. When DYSON, a major customer retreat its business, Keurig Green Mountain turns to be a greater major customer immediately. Keurig Green Mountain's consumer brand partners include SUBWAY (the largest chain restaurants company), STARBUCKS, COCA-COLA, NESTLE and so on.
2. New coffee machine assembly line has started its operation in May. In June, the new coffee machine production will reach 100,000 units, while in July, it will further doubling the number. This represents FY14Q3 performance (February-April), is not yet contributes by this new coffee machine order. Therefore, the performance in FY14Q4 is expected to be very strong. 【22-Jul-14 VS Industry Fair Value
3. Dividend Policy: Profit payout rate is not less than 40%. Increase in profit mean dividend will increase too.
4. Having a good track record of dividend payout. Also, company did distributed bonus and treasury share (>0.6% at this moment) in the record.

With above simple but extraordinary criteria, I have no hesitation to invest in VS.
My average purchase price is RM1.61.

关于KEURIG绿山公司 | About Keurig Green Mountain, Inc.

As a leader in specialty coffee, coffee makers, teas and other beverages, Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. (Keurig) (NASDAQ: GMCR), is recognized for its award-winning beverages, innovative Keurig®brewing technology, and socially responsible business practices. The Company has inspired consumer passion for its products by revolutionizing beverage preparation at home and in the workplace. Keurig supports local and global communities by investing in sustainably-grown coffee and by its active involvement in a variety of social and environmental projects. By helping consumers drink for themselves, we believe we can brew a better world. For more information visit: www.KeurigGreenMountain.com. To purchase Keurig® products visit: www.Keurig.com or www.Keurig.ca.

Press Releases: 
http://www.keuriggreenmountain.com/Media/PressReleases.aspx?ResultPage=1&Year=2014

1-Jul-14:NESTLÉ COFFEE-MATE Finds its Perfect Mate in Keurig
"We're excited to welcome Coffee-mate into our ever expanding Keurig family of brands," said John Whoriskey, President, U.S. Sales & Marketing of Keurig. "As a company, we're dedicated to bringing new innovation and flavor combinations to our Keurig brewer users. With a beloved consumer brand like Coffee-mate in K-Cup® packs, we hope to make consumers' coffee routines that much simpler while delivering the great taste they expect."
Keurig® brewers use innovative brewing technology to deliver a fresh-brewed, perfect single cup of hot or brewed over ice coffee, tea, cocoa, or fruit brews every time at just the touch of a button. The Keurig® single cup brewing system was recently recognized as the "Brand of the Year" in the single serve coffee maker category in the 2014 Harris Poll EquiTrend® Equity Study. For the third consecutive year, the Keurig® system has received the highest ranking in the coffee maker category based on consumers' perceptions of familiarity, quality, and purchase consideration, a selection of several qualifying elements evaluated.
20-Jun-14 Keurig Green Mountain's First Cold Pod Manufacturing Unit - Analyst Blog
Similar to the coffee machines, Keurig Cold machine expected to be launched in 2015, will use pods to make sodas, sports drinks and other beverages at the touch of a button.
In order to increase the brand power of Keurig Cold, Keurig Green Mountain has inked a 10-year partnership deal in Feb 2014 with beverage giant The Coca Cola Company ( KO ). Per the deal, Keurig Green Mountain will exclusively make Coca-Cola branded pods for the cold beverage system. Additionally, both the companies will work toward the development and launch of the new brewer. The strategic partnership will not only aid the launch but also provide a strong platform to the new brewer for global growth. (Read: Green Mountain Coca Cola Close Deal )
18-Jun-14 Keurig Green Mountain Hits a 52-Week High
Keurig Green Mountain shares have been on the rise this year as it reaps benefits from its several strategic alliances, which help it to maintain a leading position in the single serve brewing category.
KeurigGreen Mountain recently signed a deal with America’s most popular restaurant Subway to widen the homemade single-serve coffee options for Keurig users. Under the agreement, Keurig Green Mountain’s new K150 brewer series will be installed at the Subway restaurants across the U.S.
Earlier this year, Keurig Green Mountaininked a multi-year agreement with Italy’s coffee company Luigi Lavazza SpA under which Lavazza SpA’s flagship coffee Lavazza will now be available in K-Cup packs for use on Keurig brewers.
Moreover, the Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company is foraying into the cold beverage and soda market. It will launch the new Keurig brewer  The Keurig Cold Machine — which will make sodas, sports drinks and other beverages using pods at the touch of a button — in the second half of fiscal 2014.
10-Jun-14 Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. and SUBWAY Announce Hot Beverage Partnership
Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. (Keurig) (NASDAQ: GMCR), a leader in specialty coffee, coffee makers, teas and other beverages with its innovative brewing technology, and the SUBWAY® restaurant chain today announce a partnership to bring Keurig's single serve brewers to thousands of the restaurant brand's North American locations.
14-Mar-14 Keurig Green Mountain and Starbucks Amend Agreement
Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. (Keurig) (NASDAQ: GMCR), a leader in specialty coffee, coffee makers, teas and other beverages with its innovative brewing technology, and Starbucks Coffee Company (NASDAQ: SBUX), the global leader in the premium single cup coffee category, announced today amended terms to the companies' existing five-year agreement.
The companies have updated their agreement to continue to expand Starbucks range of K-Cup® pack offerings and to promote expanded consumer choice as Keurig continues to build its Keurig® brewing system. In exchange for eliminating the super-premium coffee exclusivity terms of the existing agreement Starbucks will receive improved business terms, including significantly expanded Starbucks K-Cup® pack and variety types.
9-May-11 V.S. Industry unit appointed OEM partner by US-based Keurig
V.S. Industry Bhd (VSI) unit V.S. Plus Sdn Bhd has been appointed by US-based Keurig Incorporated (Keurig) as an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) partner to produce Keurig's Single-Cup coffee brewers.

4 comments:

Chin Hoe said...

请问虫大对Symlife有何看法?

TS S said...

对symlife没研究。不如你先给我讲为何看好它?讲重点。

Anonymous said...

虫大你好,请问你还看好2015的VS吗?咖啡机预计会继续带来盈利只是担心大市不好拖累了。虫虫大怎么看?

TS S said...

看法一样。基本面和2015年的业绩应该还很好。只是担心大市拖累。