Friday 16 October 2015

Participation Analysis 【参与率分析】 @ 15-Oct-15


Foreign investors movement is unknown for today's market. Anyhow, foreign investors have been the net buyer for the past 7 days consecutively. The previous 2 times recorded with 7 days consecutively net buy by foreign investor were mid-Mar'15 & end-Apr'15. But this time is showing higher traded value compared to the previous. Perhaps we can use the past trends to predict the coming market trend. Time will prove whether similar trend will happen.

LR - Local Retails 【散户】
LI - Local Institution 【本地基金】
F - Foreign 【外资】

Sunday 11 October 2015

LANDMRK: AGM信息 (AGM Information)

前几个月的股票市场情绪很糟糕,为了避免不再多加恐慌,所以没有立刻公开地分享公司的AGM信息。观察了这个星期的市场情绪后,加上外资开始出现少许的回流(6-Oct @ 0.6亿,7-Oct @ 2.9亿 & 8-Oct @ 1.2亿),才选择开始做简单的分析。虽然笔者选择开始慢步进场,主要选择跌得深和有价值的股,但是还是必须步步为营来操作。一旦观察到外资再大力抛售,将会选择出场再做观众。下个星期再给大家跟进参与率的分析。

讲回正题。通过Landmrk AGM的信息,可以了解之前的盈利预期做得太乐观了。水晶湖(Crystal Lagoon)的开张是如期进行,但是周围设备的进展还是在很初期的阶段。如此的进展,看来还是需要多2年才可以看到比较明显的盈利。到时候,国际机场也应该接近开始运作的时期。


Market sentimental is very bad in the past few months. It caused me become hesitate to share the AGM information and to avoid unnecessary further panic to investors. The market sentimental looks better in this week and the foreign investors are coming back slowly (6-Oct @ 61mil,7-Oct @ 290mil & 8-Oct @ 120mil). Thus, I decided to share it today. I have started to step in into market in slow pace by focus on deep falling and undervalued stocks. But I still remind myself to be very caution in this market. If the foreign investors are back to great selling mode, I shall retreat as observer again. I will make a Participation Analysis by next week to follow the situation.

Back to the topic. From the Landmark AGM's information, it is very obvious that my previous prediction on the timing is too optimistic. Crystal Lagoon was successfully launched as per schedule, but the surrounding accommodation and facilities are still in very preliminary stage. With this kind of progress, it seem need another 2 years before we can see significant profit to surface. By that time, the launch date of international airport should be around the corner as well.

Just monitor the Treasure Bay Bintan development progress closely. I still believe it is just matter of time in order to let the company to perform well in the future.

Source: Credit to Angie.