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Saturday, 5 January 2013

[0008] WILLOW

最近我逆着风险累积了一些WILLOW。
以手上的合约,我预测接下来的2-3个Q会有不错的业绩。
股息3sen应该不成问题。只要公司没有大力发展(内部扩张计划或收购计划),最少也应该有2.5sen吧!如果有发展计划,都会对公司更有利。

以现在的股价来算(RM0.35)。如果,
Div = 3.5sen;DY=10.0%
Div = 3.0sen;DY=8.57%
Div = 2.5sen;DY=7.14%

预测明年的全年EPS会在5sen以上。如果,
EPS=6.0,PE=35/6.0=5.83
EPS=5.5,PE=35/5.5=6.36
EPS=5.0,PE=35/5.0=7.00
EPS=4.5,PE=35/4.5=7.78

必须考虑的风险因素:
1. 股市在高点。
2. 大选快要到来了。
3. 股价创新高。
4. 下个业绩会在二月公布。到时会有建议股息。而股息必须通过AGM后和在五月的业绩才正式公布。

迟点才把基本数据和技术图放上来。

。。。。。。

Recently I bought in some WILLOW by against the risk during uncertainty market.
With WILLOW's current on hand contracts, I expect the coming 2-3Q result will be pretty good.
My expectation is having 3sen dividend. As long as company do not have any expansion plan, 2.5sen dividend will be the bottom limit. Any expansion plan will be good for future.

Based on current share price at RM0.35. If
Div = 3.5sen;DY=10.0%
Div = 3.0sen;DY=8.57%
Div = 2.5sen;DY=7.14%

Expect next full year EPS will be at above 5sen. If,
EPS=6.0,PE=35/6.0=5.83
EPS=5.5,PE=35/5.5=6.36
EPS=5.0,PE=35/5.0=7.00
EPS=4.5,PE=35/4.5=7.78

Risk consideration:
1. KLCI at new high.
2. Election is just around the corner.
3. Stock price hit its new high.
4. The coming result will be announce on Feb-13, dividend will be propose. Dividend proposal need to get approval during AGM and only to be declared at May-13's quarterly result announcement.

I will post FA & TA details at later post.

1 comment:

kindo said...

这个我买过D, 乡下佬有说过管理层很乱 呵呵