[6963] VS

公司的背景 | Company Background

如果投资者只以一般的方式去看待威城的数据，这间公司将会变成一个弃婴。投资要看未来，也要了解公司生意的性质。数据如低ROE，低盈利率，高债务，通通都不能带上用场。值得参考的数据有如现金流和营业额。可以带来盈利率变化的情况包括新产品的盈利率，运营成本和材料成本控制，货币兑换率的波动。

简单来形容，【威城】是一间做代工生意的公司。这类生意的盈利率会很低，也很依赖主要顾客给的订单。所以，业绩一般都会有很大的波动。每当大经济变坏，营业额就会大跌。主要原因是其顾客给的生意被影响而导致的连锁反应。其次，只要有某个大顾客退出或大量减少公司的订单，业绩就会变得很难看。观察过去10年业绩的波动，就明白背后的原理了。

在现有的情况，高应收债和高存货，都代表业绩转折点的现象。只有得到陆续增长的订单，才会造成现有的情况。

This company will become an abandoned selection if investors using a common view to look on its fundamental figure. We must invest on the future and understand the nature of the company business. Data such as low ROE, low profit margin and high debt, all are not suitable to make valuation for this company. Cash flow and revenue will be a good reference for fundamental valuation. Profitability is subject to change, including net profit of new products, operating costs and material costs control, fluctuations in currency exchange rates.

In brief, VS is a contract manufacturer doing OEM business for their customers. The profit margin for such business will be low naturally and very dependent on major customers for orders. Therefore, the results generally have large fluctuations. When economy in deterioration, turnover will collapse. The main reason is the business of its customers to be affected and cause a chain reaction. Secondly, if there is a major customer exit or significantly reduce the company's orders, the performance will becomes very bad. By looking on its performance over the past 10 years, we can understand the rationale behind the business nature.

In the current case, the high debt and high inventory accounts, represents a turning point in the performance of the phenomenon. Only get another increase orders, giving rise to the current situation.


每季/每年业绩 | Quarterly/Yearly Results

注：Q3FY2014带来了一笔外汇亏损，负数RM4.4mil。
ATTN: Q3FY2014 reported a derivative loss on currency forward contracts of -RM4.4mil.


三十大股东 | Top 30 Shareholders

大型投资机构，总共有7个。如果没有错，比去年增加了3个。
Total of 7 substantial investment institutions holding the company share. If not mistaken, it has increased 3 compared to last year.

分部业绩 | Segment Results

在Q1-3FY2014大马的分部业绩，可以看到盈利率会比去年好，反而营业额比较不达标。但是，重点不在Q1-3FY2014，而是接下来的下一季和未来。
印尼的部分，没什么影响力。不多谈。
去年把中国的子公司（VSIG）股份增加了17.18%。现在公司以53.84%持股率来掌控子公司的运作决定权。主要原因是来稳定零件供应给予大马的生产线。暂时子公司还是在亏损的状况。只要管理层成功把中国子公司的运作费管理好，就会把公司的盈利再步提高。

Malaysia segment results in Q1-3FY2014, we can see the profit margin is better than last year. But the revenue is less impressive than last year. However, the focus is not Q1-3FY2014, but next quarter onwards.
For Indonesia segment, it is not significant. Thus, just ignore it.
In last year, company has increased of 17.18% shareholding in VSIG, a subsidiary in China. As of now, the company has 53.84% shareholding ratio to control the operation decision of the subsidiary. The main reason is to give a stable supply of spare parts to Malaysia's production lines. At the moment, VSIG is still making loss. If the management succeeds to make a good operating costs control on VSIG, it will further improve the company's profitability.

买点 | Buy Points

1. 自从DYSON这位大顾客离去大部分产品生产线后，Keurig Green Mountain化身为其身边更大的巨人。Keurig Green Mountain的合作伙伴包括SUBWAY（全世界最多连锁店的公司），STARBUCKS，COCA-COLA，NESTLE，等等的消费大品牌公司。
2. 新咖啡机组装生产线在5月正式投入运作。6月新款咖啡机产量将达到10万台，而7月数量更将倍增。这代表FY14Q3的业绩（二月至四月），是还没有新厂带来的贡献。所以，FY14Q4的业绩预测会非常亮眼。【22-Jul-14 產能料雙位數增長‧威城財測調高】
3. 股息政策：盈利派发率为最少40%或以上。盈利上升，股息也会跟着上。
4. 很好的股息派发记录。也有给分红和派库存股（现在有超过0.6%）的习惯。

以上简单又非凡的状况，已经有足够理由让我去投资【威城】了。
笔者的平均买入价为RM1.61。

1. When DYSON, a major customer retreat its business, Keurig Green Mountain turns to be a greater major customer immediately. Keurig Green Mountain's consumer brand partners include SUBWAY (the largest chain restaurants company), STARBUCKS, COCA-COLA, NESTLE and so on.
2. New coffee machine assembly line has started its operation in May. In June, the new coffee machine production will reach 100,000 units, while in July, it will further doubling the number. This represents FY14Q3 performance (February-April), is not yet contributes by this new coffee machine order. Therefore, the performance in FY14Q4 is expected to be very strong. 【22-Jul-14 VS Industry Fair Value】
3. Dividend Policy: Profit payout rate is not less than 40%. Increase in profit mean dividend will increase too.
4. Having a good track record of dividend payout. Also, company did distributed bonus and treasury share (>0.6% at this moment) in the record.

With above simple but extraordinary criteria, I have no hesitation to invest in VS.
My average purchase price is RM1.61.

关于KEURIG绿山公司 | About Keurig Green Mountain, Inc.

As a leader in specialty coffee, coffee makers, teas and other beverages, Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. (Keurig) (NASDAQ: GMCR), is recognized for its award-winning beverages, innovative Keurig®brewing technology, and socially responsible business practices. The Company has inspired consumer passion for its products by revolutionizing beverage preparation at home and in the workplace. Keurig supports local and global communities by investing in sustainably-grown coffee and by its active involvement in a variety of social and environmental projects. By helping consumers drink for themselves, we believe we can brew a better world. For more information visit: www.KeurigGreenMountain.com. To purchase Keurig® products visit: www.Keurig.com or www.Keurig.ca.

Press Releases: 
http://www.keuriggreenmountain.com/Media/PressReleases.aspx?ResultPage=1&Year=2014

1-Jul-14：NESTLÉ COFFEE-MATE Finds its Perfect Mate in Keurig

"We're excited to welcome Coffee-mate into our ever expanding Keurig family of brands," said John Whoriskey, President, U.S. Sales & Marketing of Keurig. "As a company, we're dedicated to bringing new innovation and flavor combinations to our Keurig brewer users. With a beloved consumer brand like Coffee-mate in K-Cup® packs, we hope to make consumers' coffee routines that much simpler while delivering the great taste they expect."
Keurig® brewers use innovative brewing technology to deliver a fresh-brewed, perfect single cup of hot or brewed over ice coffee, tea, cocoa, or fruit brews every time at just the touch of a button. The Keurig® single cup brewing system was recently recognized as the "Brand of the Year" in the single serve coffee maker category in the 2014 Harris Poll EquiTrend® Equity Study. For the third consecutive year, the Keurig® system has received the highest ranking in the coffee maker category based on consumers' perceptions of familiarity, quality, and purchase consideration, a selection of several qualifying elements evaluated.

20-Jun-14 Keurig Green Mountain's First Cold Pod Manufacturing Unit - Analyst Blog

Similar to the coffee machines, Keurig Cold machine expected to be launched in 2015, will use pods to make sodas, sports drinks and other beverages at the touch of a button.
In order to increase the brand power of Keurig Cold, Keurig Green Mountain has inked a 10-year partnership deal in Feb 2014 with beverage giant The Coca Cola Company ( KO ). Per the deal, Keurig Green Mountain will exclusively make Coca-Cola branded pods for the cold beverage system. Additionally, both the companies will work toward the development and launch of the new brewer. The strategic partnership will not only aid the launch but also provide a strong platform to the new brewer for global growth. (Read: Green Mountain Coca Cola Close Deal )

18-Jun-14 Keurig Green Mountain Hits a 52-Week High

Keurig Green Mountain shares have been on the rise this year as it reaps benefits from its several strategic alliances, which help it to maintain a leading position in the single serve brewing category.
KeurigGreen Mountain recently signed a deal with America’s most popular restaurant Subway to widen the homemade single-serve coffee options for Keurig users. Under the agreement, Keurig Green Mountain’s new K150 brewer series will be installed at the Subway restaurants across the U.S.
Earlier this year, Keurig Green Mountaininked a multi-year agreement with Italy’s coffee company Luigi Lavazza SpA under which Lavazza SpA’s flagship coffee Lavazza will now be available in K-Cup packs for use on Keurig brewers.
Moreover, the Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company is foraying into the cold beverage and soda market. It will launch the new Keurig brewer  The Keurig Cold Machine — which will make sodas, sports drinks and other beverages using pods at the touch of a button — in the second half of fiscal 2014.

10-Jun-14 Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. and SUBWAY Announce Hot Beverage Partnership

Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. (Keurig) (NASDAQ: GMCR), a leader in specialty coffee, coffee makers, teas and other beverages with its innovative brewing technology, and the SUBWAY® restaurant chain today announce a partnership to bring Keurig's single serve brewers to thousands of the restaurant brand's North American locations.

14-Mar-14 Keurig Green Mountain and Starbucks Amend Agreement

Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. (Keurig) (NASDAQ: GMCR), a leader in specialty coffee, coffee makers, teas and other beverages with its innovative brewing technology, and Starbucks Coffee Company (NASDAQ: SBUX), the global leader in the premium single cup coffee category, announced today amended terms to the companies' existing five-year agreement.
The companies have updated their agreement to continue to expand Starbucks range of K-Cup® pack offerings and to promote expanded consumer choice as Keurig continues to build its Keurig® brewing system. In exchange for eliminating the super-premium coffee exclusivity terms of the existing agreement Starbucks will receive improved business terms, including significantly expanded Starbucks K-Cup® pack and variety types.

9-May-11 V.S. Industry unit appointed OEM partner by US-based Keurig

V.S. Industry Bhd (VSI) unit V.S. Plus Sdn Bhd has been appointed by US-based Keurig Incorporated (Keurig) as an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) partner to produce Keurig's Single-Cup coffee brewers.

Participation Analysis 【参与率分析】 @ 17-Jul-14

OPR升息0.25%后，部分投资者都预测外资会开始撤离股市。最近的几天，反而看到外资资金明显回流大马股市。
散户持有率继续创新低，KLCI指数却继续创新高。

Some investors predict foreign fund will retreat from Malaysia stock market after Malaysia announced OPR increased by 0.25%. From the observation on recent days, foreign fund is increasing their stake instead of selling.
Local retails still continues the selling activity aggressively to hit its historical low. KLCI index react differently and continues its up trend on peak level.

LR - Local Retails 【散户】
LI - Local Institution 【本地基金】
F - Foreign 【外资】

灯饰立法 (Lighting Legislation)

Facts About the Incandescent Light Bulb Law

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Qk7Vsl_5qc

New efficiency standards mean we're changing the way we light our world for the better.

Understand your options.
Lighting choices are changing between 2012 and 2014 in favor of options that use less energy

The Story on Lighting Legislation

Between 2012 and 2014, standard 40- and 100-watt incandescent light bulbs must use 30% less energy to meet minimum efficient standards. What does it all mean?

• You are not required to throw out your existing bulbs.
• Manufacturers simply can't manufacture certain bulbs as time goes on.
• There is a range of specialty incandescent bulbs that are exceptions, including 3-ways, reflectors, appliance bulbs and some decorative options.
• Moving forward, you'll choose from better technology like energy-efficient soft white, CFL and LED options.

What are the alternatives?

There are many no-compromise, energy-efficient options that fit your fixtures and provide the light you need.

---

GE energy smart® CFLs

GE energy smart® CFLs are a common energy-efficient replacement option. With GE energy smart® bright from the start™ bulbs, there's even a CFL that achieves instant brightness the moment you flip the switch.

• Use 75% less energy than incandescent bulbs
• Last more than 7 years*

Compare energy costs:
► GE Energy Smart CFL vs standard incandescent bulb

---

GE energy-efficient soft white

GE energy-efficient soft white offer the closest alternative to traditional incandescent bulbs.

• Use 28% less energy than incandescent bulbs
• Same size & shape
• Nearly the same light output
• Dimmable & instantly bright

► See how much you can save

---

GE energy smart® LEDs

GE energy smart® LEDs provide a highly energy-efficient and long-lasting lighting solution.

• Last up to 22 years*
• Use 75% less energy than incandescent bulbs

* Based on three (3) hours use per day.
These bulbs use less energy but some provide less brightness. See package for details.

http://www.gelighting.com/LightingWeb/na/consumer/inspire-and-learn/lighting-legislation/


Phase-out of incandescent light bulbs

Governments around the world have passed measures to phase out incandescent light bulbs for general lighting in favor of more energy-efficient lighting alternatives. Phase-out regulations effectively ban the manufacture, importation or sale of incandescent light bulbs for general lighting. The regulations would allow sale of future versions of incandescent bulbs if they are sufficiently energy efficient.

Brazil and Venezuela started the controversial phase-out in 2005,^{[citation needed]} and the European Union, Switzerland,^[1] and Australia^[2] started to phase them out in 2009.^[3] Likewise, other nations are implementing new energy standards or have scheduled phase-outs: Argentina,^[4] and Russia in 2012, and the United States, Canada,^[5] Mexico, Malaysia^[6] and South Korea in 2014.^[7]

Phase out of incandescent light bulbs around the world

  A full ban

  A partial ban

  A programme to exchange a number of light bulbs with more efficient types

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_incandescent_light_bulbs

Lighting Legislation

The Phase-Out of Inefficient light bulbs
Inefficient light bulbs are being phased out and being replaced by energy saving lamps. Energy saving lamps are not just traditional Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFLs) but include energy saving version of halogen, linear fluorescent and even LEDs:-

• Compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs): these are the most common energy saving light bulbs and come in stick shape, candle shape, small or medium screw and bayonet fittings
• Energy saving halogen light bulbs: a good option if a consumer already has halogen lights in their home. They consume around 30% less electricity than standard halogen bulbs
• LED lights: these have progressed rapidly in recent years and can now be used to replace existing halogen spotlights.The first LED lamps will be endorsed under the ESR scheme by April 2009.

http://www.thelia.org.uk/lighting-guides/lamp-guide/legislation/


全球白熾燈禁用時間表 (2009.01)

LEDinside 整理「全球白熾燈禁用時間表 (2009.01)」，本表格將不定期更新。

可替代白炙燈泡的光源有很多，包括CFL螢光燈、LED照明光源、OLED照明光源等等。隨著各國陸續停止生產、禁用白炙燈泡，其他替代照明的普及度會慢慢提高，並依據光源的屬性和特點，在不同的領域中享有優勢。

http://www.ledinside.com.tw/knowledge/20090109-8979.html

MMSV: EPPs

EPP 8: Developing LED Front-End Operations

GNI by 2020 (mil)  RM 2,681

Projected jobs by 2020  7,300

Malaysia aims to establish itself as a regional and global player in the LED cluster profile through this EPP, which focuses on two main objectives:

• Tripling LED wafer fabrication capacity via organic growth of current players and attracting at least one new global player to Malaysia.
• Introducing at least two substrate manufacturers and/or epitaxy companies, which can provide more high-value added products.

MOSTI and research institutions will further define specific initiatives to leverage the availability of domestically produced and cost-efficient advanced materials to help the market expand into new classes of intermediate products, such as OLEDs.

Highlights

Osram Opto Semiconductors (M) Sdn Bhd expanded its LED chip production plant in Bayan Lepas, Penang, which will help support demand for LED lighting from the Chinese market.

In the second half of the year, MMS Ventures Bhd began manufacturing customised LED test equipment to promote the high quality production of LED products.

ELSOFT Research Bhd constructed a 90,000 sq ft facility in Bayan Lepas for LED test and process handling to meet continued growing demand from the tablet, smartphone and automotive markets.

http://etp.pemandu.gov.my/Electrical_-%E2%97%98-_Electronics-%40-Electrical_-%E2%97%98-_Electronics_-_EPP_8-%3b_Developing_LED_Front-End_Operations.aspx


EPPs in Electrical & Electronics sector

http://etp.pemandu.gov.my/Electrical_-%E2%97%98-_Electronics-@-Electrical_-%E2%97%98-_Electronics.aspx

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笔者最近跟有一位经验丰富在自动化和LED业务有关的专家谈起上述电子业的EPP 8。

什么是EPP？
EPP是指各领行业切入点项目，也是根据马来西亚的经济转型计划里的重要题目。

EPP对这个行业有帮助。
马来西亚政府应该在10年前就要做到这一点了。
这是个很好的现象，因为马来西亚政府终于醒了。
超过15年前的Agilent（以前的HP）和Osram（以前的Siemens）已经积极涉足LED产品，但大马政府只是没有意识到它的重要性。
现在，韩国和台湾已超越我们的生产量。
现在的开始，其实都不算太迟。
槟城需要一个LED行业中心的平台。
槟城仍然算是这个行业里的领导者，因为新产品的研究和开发活动都是主要通过欧盟，美国和日本这些LED的领导者来完成。
台湾和中国的方式主要是做出快速复制来赚取快钱。

MMSV的大部分订单都是来自外国。因此，只要大马政府付出更多的心思来按计划进行，笔者相信这些EPPs将受益于MMSV。


I have some talks with an experienced expert in automation and LED industry regarding the Electrical & Electronics's EPP 8 stated above.

What is EPP?
EPP is referring to entry point projects for sectors in focus under Malaysia's economic transformation programme.

EPP helps.
Malaysian government should have done this 10 years ago.
It is good that Malaysian government wake up now.
More than 15 years ago Agilent (was known as HP) and  Osram (was known as Siemens) were already actively involved in LED products but Malaysian government just did not realize how important it can be.
Now Korea and Taiwan have overtaken us in volume.
Is never too late.
Penang needs LED hub.
Penang is still leading in new products because of R&D activity are mainly done by the EU, USA n Japanese LED leaders.
Taiwan and china ways copy & make fast and easy money.

Most of MMSV's orders are come from outside Malaysia. Thus, I strongly believe these EPPs under Electrical & Electronics sector will benefit to MMSV with condition that Malaysia government put more effort as per planned.

[0113] MMSV

注（ATTN）：

笔者管理的资金，开始介入的价最低为24sen。最后一次的买价在30sen（少量）。以昨天的收市价@29.5sen，买入价的回酬最少已经超过10%。因为利益的冲突，早前完整的分析资料只能供应给部分的特殊投资者。所以，往后的分析报告，笔者也只能在事后才公开给大家做参考。
The fund under my management has started to buy in at 24sen as the lowest price. The last transaction done is at 30sen but with less invested capital. According to yesterday closing price @ 29.5sen, the invested capital return has exceeded 10% or more.Due to conflict of interest, the analysis report will only shared to certain special investors during early stage. This practise will be remain no change in future. The analysis report will only publish for public reference afterwards.

公司的背景：(Company Background)

MMSV成立于2004年3月29日为一家私营有限责任公司。过后被转换成为大马上市公司，于2004年10月19日。其IPO上市价格为发行每股27sen。
MMSV成立为MMSV集团上市在大马的ACE交易场所。（前名为MESDAQ交易场所）。目前，MMSV有2个子公司名为Micro Modular System Sdn Bhd ("MMS") and Evolusys Technologies (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd ("Evolusys")。 MMS是设计和制造工业自动化，以及设计精密模具套，夹具及固定装置。 Evolusys正在开发的硬件和软件自动化和测试解决方案。

MMS Ventures Berhad ("MMSV") was incorporated in Malaysia under the Companies Act, 1965 on 29 March 2004 as a private limited company. MMSV was converted into a public limited company and assumed its present name on 19 October 2004.

MMSV was established as the investment holding company of MMSV Group in conjunction with the listing of MMSV on the ACE Market (Formerly known as MESDAQ Market). Currently, MMSV has 2 subsidiary companies namely Micro Modular System Sdn Bhd ("MMS") and Evolusys Technologies (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd ("Evolusys"). MMS is designing and manufacturing industrial automation, as well as designing precision die sets, jigs and fixtures. Evolusys is developing hardware and software for automation and test solutions.

http://www.mmsv.com.my/
http://www.youtube.com/user/MicroModularSystem
https://www.facebook.com/MicroModularSystem

每季业绩：(Quarterly Results)

自2005年上市到2012年，公司的生意在这7年里毫无起色。在2013年，公司终于成功带来历史性的新突破。营业收入和净利润都达到了高峰点。主要的功劳是管理层在过去2年里，成功地转移公司的业务重心从半导体到LED的产品线。此外，客户也不断增加他们的需求而下单。根据公司，LED产业仍然以稳健成长的步伐。

The company is struggling in its business since 2005 until 2012, which is almost 7 years. In year 2013, company successfully hit the highest number in both revenue and net profit in his history. It is part of the effort paid off after management switched their business focus from Semiconductor to LEDs product lines in the past 2 years. Also, the achievement is coupling with the increasing customers’ demand and enquiries flowing since last year. According to company, LED industry is still growing at a steady pace, indicating that there is still a strong demand for customized machines designed to provide solutions to customers’ specific manufacturing processes.

FY2013: EPS 3.08 sen | FY2014: Dividend 1sen

Share Price (sen)	25	30
PE	8.12	9.74
DY	4.0%	3.3%

每年业绩：(Yearly Results)

- 净现金公司。 （现金= RM8.46mil 对比 总负债=RM6.45mil） 

- 在2013年，累计收入已经转为正数。笔者认为这是公司重新在今年支付股息的原因之一。 

- 流动比率（流动资产/流动负债）为3.34。这证明该公司是非常健康。可以在任何危机中，至少能维持生意的运作多几年。

- It is a net cash company. (Cash = RM8.46mil vs Total liabilities = RM6.45mil)

- Accumulated earning has turned around to be positive in 2013. I think this is one of the reasons why company is started to pay out dividend in this year.

- Current ratio (Current asset / Current liability) is 3.34. This proved the company is very health and can sustain very well in any crisis for years.

资本支出，折旧，存货撇销：(CAPEX, Depreciation, Inventory Written Off)

- 不需要付出很多资本支出来推动去年的增长。 

- 折旧率低。因此，公司不会从这个方面削弱未来的利润。 

- 2012年和2009年全年，公司面临亏损情况。主要原因是存货的报销。这个问题是否会重复在未来？笔者猜测，这些部分的亏损是当公司转移业务的重心（从半导体到LED）而造成。所以，笔者认为不会或几率很小。

- There is not many CAPEX needed to push the last year’s growth.

- Depreciation is low. Thus, it should not to erode future profit from this aspect.

- In Year 2012 & 2009, company was making loss. It is mainly due to inventory written down/off. This is a concern whether it will repeat in future? I guess this arise when company was switched focus from Semiconductor to LEDs business and it involved of a lot scrap in old technology used for Semiconductor business. Thus, I think it will not happen again or the chance is very low.

应收账及减值：(Receivables & Impairment)

- 在2013年，没有减值。2012年有RM305k的减值，不多。 

- 应收款项的情况还算健康。

- No impairment in 2013. There is RM305k impaired in 2012, but not many.

- Receivables condition is ok.

地理分部业绩：(Geographic Segment Results)

- 在2013年，马来西亚和亚洲市场的销售改善度相当不错。 

- Q1FY2014是销售额还好。销售额预计将逐渐回升。

- Malaysia & Asia markets improved very well in year 2013.

- Q1FY2014 is doing reasonable at the moments. Sales are expected to pick up gradually.

股本变动及派息纪录：(Capital Change & Dividend History)

- 公司今年重新分发股息。股息为1sen。

- Company is started to repay shareholder with dividend this year. It is 1sen for FY2014.

三十大股东：(Top 30 Shareholders)

- Metronic Glabal在16日4月2014年不再是公司的大股东。谁买把那些票买起来了？为何在公司的业绩开始好转时放手？

- 在最新的三十大股东名单里，Metronic Global的踪影完全看不见了。第三十大的票数为870,200股。

- Metronic Global has ceased to be a substantial shareholder and announced on 16-Apr-14. Who has stolen the shares? Why Metronic Global quit as the company performance is improving?

- From the latest shareholding status (as of 17-Jun-14), Metronic Global is not even in the top 30 shareholders list, which the minimum share for the 30^th shareholder is 870,200 shares.

公司的展望：(Company’s Prospect)

- 2013年报 (Annual Report 2013)

- Q1FY2014 季报(Quarterly Report)

- 以下的文章，可以知道公司接下来的重要展望。

- Below news providing information regarding the company’s prospect

16-Jun-14            Penang LED tester device makers' charged up

                http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/06/16/Penang-LED-tester-device-makers-charged-up-Their-order-books-already-filled-for-the-first-nine-month/

Ø  According to Digitimes Research, the global LED lighting market size will reach US$25.82bil this year or a market penetration rate of 23.4%, driven by the growth in demand for light bulbs, tubes and directional lamps.

“With pricing trending downward, the annual LED lighting output value will grow 38.8%,” the Digitimes Research report added.

Ø  MMS Venture managing director T.K. Sia said the group had secured over RM20mil worth of orders from US multinational corporations in Asia and directly from the US for the first nine months of 2014.

“Delivery of the test equipment will be fulfilled by the end the third quarter.

“The orders secured should help the group to boost its performance for the 2014 fiscal year ending in December, which should see double-digit growth in sales compared with a year ago,” Sia said.

竞争对手：(Competitors)

- ELSOFT（0090）和PENTA（7160）两间上市公司也有相关的LED业务。近期也从客户收到很不错的订单。 

- ELSOFT是一家具有良好的基本面，也有派息习惯的公司。但它的短期股价看起来完全估值应有的价值了。 

- PENTA也是一家近年转移业务重心的公司，从硬盘业务去LED相关业务。与MMSV相比，其基本面缺乏吸引力。2008年之后，没有派息，但其股价现在已经达到过去4年的高峰点。 

- MMSV现有的条件都比以上两间公司来的吸引。最便宜，股息最高，业绩成长率的肯定性高。其他两家公司的PE都超过20。

- 以以上的因素作为参考点，为何市场先生只给MMSV在单数位的PE？

- Both ELSOFT (0090) and PENTA (7160) are doing LEDs related business and receiving good orders from customers.

- ELSOFT is a company with good fundamental and also paying dividend. But its share price is seem like fully valued for now.

- PENTA is a company switching their focus from HDD market to LEDs and Sensors related business. Its fundamental is less attractive compared with MMSV. Yet, there is no dividend payout after 2008. But its share price now is reaching its peak for the past 4 years.

- MMSV is much attractive compared with both mentioned companies. It is much cheaper, dividend yield is higher and high certainty on the result growth. ELSOFT and PENTA are valued at above PE>20 now.

- With above reasons, why MMSV should still value at single digit PE?

FY2014业绩预测：(Estimation for FY2014’s result)

Q1: Revenue = RM5mil. NP = 0.776mil. EPS = 0.48sen.
Q2: Unknown
Q3: Revenue = RM20mil. If NP margin=16%, NP=RM3.2mil, EPS=3.2mil / 163mil (nos)=1.96sen
Q4: Unknown
Total EPS = 0.48 + 1.96 + (Q2 + Q4)EPS = 2.44 + (Q2 + Q4)EPS

Assume (Q2 + Q4)EPS = 0.56sen | FY2014 EPS = 3.0sen => PE = 25sen/3.0sen = 8.33 (zero grow?)
> If PE=18, Share price = 54sen
> If PE=15, Share price = 45sen
> If PE=10, Share price = 30sen 《 预测的股价底线。(Predict as the bottom line for share price)
Assume (Q2 + Q4)EPS = 1.06sen | FY2014 EPS = 3.5sen => PE = 25sen/3.5sen = 7.14
> If PE=18, Share price = 63sen
> If PE=15, Share price = 52.5sen
> If PE=10, Share price = 35sen
Assume (Q2 + Q4)EPS = 1.56sen | FY2014 EPS = 4.0sen => PE = 25sen/4.0sen = 6.24
> If PE=18, Share price = 72sen
> If PE=15, Share price = 60sen
> If PE=10, Share price = 40sen

If dividend payout maintain at 1sen,
> DY = 1sen/25sen = 4.0%
> DY = 1sen/30sen = 3.3%
If dividend payout increase to 1.5sen,
> DY = 1.5sen/25sen = 6.0%
> DY = 1.5sen/30sen = 5.0%

买点：(Buy Points)

1，业务开始回升。事实证明，收入和每股盈利增长。 

2，肯定在手上的RM20mil订单。预计2014年度业绩将超过2013年度。 

3，开始给股息及相当不错的股息率。 

4，单位数估值太便宜，​​尤其是给予仙股。 

5，LED相关业务还在强劲的增长趋势。

1. Business is started to pick up. It proved with revenue and eps growth.

2. RM20mil order on hand for Q3 delivery is confirmed. Expect FY2014 performance will surpass FY2013.

3. Started to pay dividend and quite attractive in term of dividend yield at this price.

4. Single digit valuation is too cheap especially for penny stock.

5. LED lighting business is in aggressive momentum growth.

弱点：(Weak Points)

1，意料以外的库存报销再次发生。 

2，似乎是一个中等门槛的业务和众多的竞争对手。 

3，小公司的业绩和成长率波动大。

1. Unexpected inventory written down/off repeat again.

2. Seem like a low barrier business and many competitors.

3. High volatility on the business sales and growth for a small cap company.

总结：(Summary)

正当我在研究着这个“仙”股，我的一个感觉就是很惊讶。觉得它是不可思议的低估！基本上，大部分“仙”股的市盈率（PE）都属于不理智的。如果以平常心去看“仙”股的基本面，你也不会对他们感得有兴趣。

MMSV是一个令人难以置信和不可抗拒的投资选择。大概研究后，我也没想太多，就立刻下单了。以我个人的经验，如果此公司的业绩能够维持或成功在未来的1-2年内扩大其盈利，并慷慨地增加其派息率至2sen，我相信到时市场先生会把他重估到至少每股50sen！ 

此外，照明企业文化和技术正在改变，渐渐把更多的产品加上LED功能。我很期待和看好这个LED行业，并期望它会继续处于爆炸性的增长。

When I’m looking on this penny stock, I’m so surprise that it is so undervalued! Basically, most of the penny stock’s PE will goes crazy and you will not have appetite to buy it if looking on its balance sheet and overall fundamental figure.

MMSV is an unbelievable and irresistible offer to me. Without think twice, I placed my order immediately on it. I bet, if company able to sustain and further grow its business in coming 1-2 years and be generous to increase its dividend payout to 2sen, I’m looking the stock to be revalued by Mr Market with at least 50sen!

Furthermore, the lighting business culture and technology is changing and divert to products with LED feature. I’m looking good in this LED industry and expect it will blooming greater in coming future.

技术分析：(Technical Analysis)

附录：(Appendix)

16-Jun-14 | Penang LED tester device makers' charged up

                http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/06/16/Penang-LED-tester-device-makers-charged-up-Their-order-books-already-filled-for-the-first-nine-month/

4-Jun-14 | Global Semiconductor Sales Increase in April; Sustained Growth Projected for 2014 & 2015

http://www.semiconductors.org/news/2014/06/04/global_sales_report_2014/global_semiconductor_sales_increase_in_april_sustained_growth_projected_for_2014_and_2015/

5-May-14 | Global Semiconductor Industry Posts Highest-Ever First Quarter Sales

http://www.semiconductors.org/news/2014/05/05/global_sales_report_2014/global_semiconductor_industry_posts_highest_ever_first_quarter_sales/

13-Mar-14 | 2014 global high brightness LED market, trends and shipment forecast

                http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20140313RS400.html

25-Jan-14 | MMS Ventures looks to bounce back

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/01/25/MMS-Ventures-looks-to-bounce-back/

“One important market is the demand to test chip-on-board (COB) LEDs that have a very high brightness and are used in general lighting, like street lamps.

“This segment generates about 30% of the group’s business. The group’s LED business generates about 70% of group revenue annually.

1-Dec-13 | Outdoor Lighting: London makes LED street light plans; US and UK projects

                http://www.ledsmagazine.com/articles/2013/12/outdoor-lighting-london-makes-led-street-light-plans-us-and-uk-projects.html

2-Oct-13 | Cree puts most light into smallest lighting LED

                http://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/components/led-lighting/cree-puts-most-light-into-smallest-lighting-led-2013-10/

1-Oct-13 | Cree, Philips Lumileds, and Luminus Devices extend COB LED technology

                http://www.ledsmagazine.com/articles/2013/10/cree-philips-lumileds-and-luminus-devices-extend-cob-led-technology.html#.UpbYnIct-n8.facebook