Nuffnang

Saturday, 19 March 2016

如何判断某间公司的合理价?How to determine a price tag for a company?

个人经常遇到新人问的2个问题:
1. 如何判断某间公司的合理价?
2. 如何寻找到你投资的对象股?

昨天花了一些时间,制造一个虚幻的情景来解释(1)的疑问。

故事虚幻的情景:

【第一阶段】
A公司,过去3年的盈利都是成长于3-5%的速度,股息率只有1%,市场先生给它PE7的“合理”价(比如:eps10sen,股价RM0.70)。

【第二阶段】
接下来的2年,公司决定不再给股息,因为要积极扩充业务。高层也表态会为接下来的未来3年达到每年30%的成长。
在第一年扩充业务时期,扩充费用(CAPEX)突然大增和一些不能控制的外来因素而导致盈利大减70%(eps3sen)。股价稍微下跌20%,(RM0.56),“合理”价变成PE18.6。

【第三阶段】
在第二年扩充业务时期,扩充费用继续增加,但是外来因素渐渐地平稳起来了,而盈利回升去(eps8sen)水平。股价回稳和升上到(RM0.80),“合理”价变成PE10。

【第四阶段】
扩充业务如预期中完成和开始运作的第一年就达到70% capacity。扩充费用明显减少。盈利比初期大增25%到(eps12.5sen)水平。股价大涨(RM1.50),“合理”价变成PE12。

【第五阶段】
扩充业务完成后的第二年,capacity运作提升到90%。盈利比去年大增30%到(eps16.25sen)水平。公司重新公布股息,10sen。股价大涨(RM2.50),股息率为4%,“合理”价变成PE15。4。

合理价背后的因素和思考点:

【第一阶段】
成长和股息都不吸引。估值自然不高。(PE7)

【第二阶段】
(负面因素):扩充需要2年才能看到盈利效应,再加上没有股息回归给股东。30%的成长也只是高层的称若,不一定会做到。还有高扩充费用和一些难以预测外来因素的影响。所以,那段时期也会带给部分投资者很多忧虑。这些投资者会卖股出场。(利好因素)扩充将会带来30%的盈利成长,虽然扩充其中盈利可能会大跌,但是有部分大型长期投资者看好未来的发展和认为管理层能讲到做到,所以趁机低价进场买入也带来扶持股价的效应(跌不多,股价-20% vs 盈利-70%)。。。此2派投资者的对立,导致看以“不合理”的估值(PE18.6)。

【第三阶段】
盈利开始回稳。扩充也接近尾声。此时,虽然盈利还没创新高,但是股价已经悄悄被有心人推高。这是因为市场投资者开始对未来的成长抱着正面的期望。(PE10)

【第四阶段】业务扩充明显带来高成长水平(25% vs 30%),非常接近高层的称若。虽然还是没有给股息,但是成长率已经足够让公司的“合理”价变得更高。(PE12)

【第五阶段】
30%的高成长水平,管理层的素质,重新给(高)股息,市场先生非常乐意把以前完全不明亮的一颗星(PE7)变为一颗明星(PE15.4)。


以上的构想,只是其中一种状况。要如何判断某间公司的合理价,是没有一个固定的程式。只有灵活性的应对。


There are 2 common questions often asked by newbies:
1. How to determine a price tag for a company?
2. How to figure out a company to invest?

I have spent some of my free time to create a virtual story to answer the question (1).

The story:

【Stage 1】
Company A has a track record of 3-5% profit growth in the past 3 years. Also give dividend at about 1% yield. Mr market valued it at PE 7. (E.g. EPS 10sen, share price RM0.70)

【Stage 2】
Company decided not to distribution dividend anymore for the next 2 years because they are going to do aggressive expansion during that period of time. The management team is confident to achieve 30% annual profit growth for the next 3 years once the expansion activity is completed.
In the first year of expansion, the company profit has plunged -70% (EPS 3sen) due to sudden rise in CAPEX and affected by unavoidable external influence to the business. The share price has dropped 20% (RM0.56) and its valuation become PE18.6.

【Stage 3】
During final year of expansion, its CAPEX still remain at high side, but the external interference to business has been settled down comfortably. Its profit has returned to comfortable level (EPS 8sen) and share price rise to RM0.80. Its valuation become PE10.

【Stage 4】
Expansion plan has been completed as per schedule and achieved 70% capacity utilization in the first year. CAPEX has been reduced to minimum level. Company profit has increased 25% compared to the before expansion mode (EPS 12.5sen). Share price increased dramatically to RM1.50. Thus, its valuation now improved to PE10.

【Stage 5】
It is the 2nd year after the expansion plan, capacity utilization has improved to 90%. Profit growth for this year is 30% (EPS 16.25sen). Company decided to repay (good) dividend to reward shareholders at 10sen per share. Its share price has exploded to RM2.50 and Dividend Yield improved to 4%. Finally, Mr Market awarded them with a price tag at PE15.4.


The rational behind the price tag and its consideration points.

【Stage 1】
Unattractive growth rate and DY. Low valuation is expected (PE 7).

【Stage 2】
(Negative influences)
Expansion plan take about 2 years to company and there is no dividend payment during that period of time. It is just a verbal promise of 30% profit growth by the management which may not become reality at last. High CAPEX and external market influence may affect company profit during expansion time. Part of the company existing investors are tend to sell their shares due to all of those highlighted concerns.
(Positive influences)
The expansion plan to bring a great figure for profit growth (30% per year). This prospect attracted some of the new investors who aim for longer term of investment, trying to buy in when share price fall due to bad time (profit dropped -70%). This type of investors are not worry about the short term influence to the company profit. Their effort to buy in has provided reasonable support to the share price (only drop -20%). Due to different approaches done by 2 different types of investors, the valuation for the company become unreasonable "expensive" at PE 18.6.

【Stage 3】
Profit has returned to stable level and its expansion plan is almost end. Although the profit yet break new high (EPS 8sen vs 10sen), the price share shown great response to hit new high (RM0.80 vs RM0.70). At this time, investors are expecting positive prospect in profit growth from the expansion. Thus, investors are willing to pay at price at PE 10 to buy in.

【Stage 4】
The expansion has proved a 25% profit growth result and the figure is very close to the management's prediction. Although there is no dividend announcement for the year, the growth prospect has given a good reason for investors to value it at PE 12.

【Stage 5】
With 30% profit growth rate, the excellent quality of the management team and much higher dividend yield rate, Mr Market is very happy to transform an ugly duck (PE 7) to become a golden goose (PE 15.4).

Above virtual story is just one of the example to explain the price tag valuation. There is no fixed formula to determine a price tag on a company. We have to be flexible in dealing each situation and also learn from experiences.

No comments: