Nuffnang

Thursday, 23 October 2014

Participation Analysis 【参与率分析】 @ 21-Oct-14




LR - Local Retails 【散户】
LI - Local Institution 【本地基金】
F - Foreign 【外资】

Friday, 3 October 2014

[0090] ELSOFT

         前阵子投资MMSV的决定,让我得到非常丰富的回酬。除了有幸找到如此非凡的投资选择,我也很感激MMSV所有的高层和员工。因为他们的付出,才能得来非凡的业绩。非凡的业绩是主要让股价高飞的因素。

当我研究MMSV的期间,我也开始注意到他们的其中一个竞争对手,ELSOFT。所以也开始慢慢对他开始了一些研究资料,然后也放入我的投资雷达里。趁着MMSV大起期间,我也开始了套利活动,再把部分的资金分散在ELSOFT此股。


接下来就让我慢慢分析为何我会选择表面上看来不便宜,但事实上属于非常吸引的价值投资选择。此分析,比较属于思考型,数字分析为次要。大家要以生意的趋势和公司未来的前景去看待。

          My recent investment decision on MMSV has rewarded with a handsome profit. In addition fortunate to find such an extraordinary investment choice, I am also very grateful to all MMSV executives and staff. This is because they paid a great effort to get an extraordinary performance for the company. Extraordinary performance is the main factor to make the stock price soar. 

When I studied MMSV, I also began to notice and slowly do some of the research in one of their competitors, ELSOFT and then put it in my investment radar. Taking advantage on MMSV big hike moment, I also started arbitrage activity, and then some of the funds are dispersed in ELSOFT. 

Let me slowly analyze why I would choose ELSOFT as it seem expensive in very surface observation, but in fact is a very attractive value investment option. This analysis, we should focus more on thinking type, instead of just a mathematical analysis. We need to image on the future business trends and prospects for the company.


公司背景 | Company Background

ELSOFT部分与LED有关联的生意,就是MMSV正在做着的业务。公司也开始把业务分散在医疗和汽车领域。

          LED related business is one of the business segments for ELSOT, in which MMSV is doing it right now. Company has started to expand their business territory to medical and automotive fields.

参考资料1 | Source 1

ELSOFT科研是一家以槟城为基地的公司,它的业务涉足测试及烧录系统(test and burn-in systems)和特定应用程式嵌入系统(application-specific embedded systems)的研究,设计及发展活动。
该公司主要是为半导体,光电(即液晶电视,影像感应器和汽车灯饰)和自动化领域提供设计,确证以及生产测试方案。其主要客户包括安华高(Avago),飞利浦(Philips),欧司朗(Osram),英德科技(Intotest),建兴(Lite-On)和科锐(Cree)。

参考资料2| Source 2

以下RHB提供了有关该公司的背景的综合信息。
Below RHB research has provided comprehensive information regarding the company background.

更多资料 | More Information

公司网站|Company Website: http://www.elsoftresearch.com/
产品和服务|Product & Services: www.elsoftresearch.com/products.php



每季业绩| Quarterly Results

     近期Q2的报告,公司创造了历史新高的业绩。接下来的Q3,预测业绩应该不会比输给Q2,毕竟年尾都是生产商销售的高峰,所以需要提早买入机械和组件来提升生产线。Q4,也许会属于平静期,除非公司有新业务的明显贡献。

          In recent Q2 report, company managed to break it historical high in profit. In coming next Q3, expect its result will be as good as Q2 since year end will be a shopping sentimental period. Thus, most of the industrial will buy in machine, equipment and components to increase their production capacity. In Q4, expect it will return to calm period, unless there is significant contribution from its new business segments.



每年业绩 | Yearly Results

高达40%的非凡盈利率。
净现金公司。 (现金= RM24.33mil 对比 总负债=RM10.75mil
》近期的存货,应收帐,应付帐,一一提高。都是生意开始有明显加强的现象。
》经过过去几年的积极投资活动,加上经营活动带来的盈利,现金流会慢慢变得更加吸引。
》一目了然,ELSOFT的财政状况属于非常健康。比较深入的检查就免做了。

》Up to 40% of the extraordinary profit margin.
》A net cash company. (Cash = RM24.33mil compare total liabilities = RM10.75mil)
》The recent inventory, accounts receivable, accounts payable, all are in increasing trends. All of these signs are showing the business momentum is getting better and better.
》Over the past few years actively in investing activities and coupled with earnings from operating activities, the cash flow will slowly become more attractive.
》At a glance, ELSOFT financial situation are very healthy. Further check in balance sheet is not necessary.



分部业绩| Segment Results

》稳健成长。加上新业务又会带来怎样的变化?
》Steady growth. The new business segments will bring what kind of changes?





股本变动及派息纪录 | Capital Change & Dividend History

每年稳定地派息。但是还没有给红股的记录?
》The annual dividend payment is consistent. But no bonus shares issue in record?




三十大股东 | Top 30 Shareholders

》三十大股东都是以个人名义而占有。为何没有基金的参与?接下来的分析将会有答案。
》Top 30 shareholders are as an individual in possession. Why no funds participate in it? The following analysis will have the answer.




公司展望 | Company’s Prospect

23-Nov-13           Elsoft diversifies product base
          
          ELSOFT Research Bhd, a light-emitting diode (LED) test equipment maker, will design and develop embedded systems for medical device and automotive companies next year to broaden its revenue base and to mitigate the impact of the volatile LED market.

An embedded system is a computer system with a dedicated function within a larger mechanical or electrical system, often with real-time computing constraints.

It is embedded as part of a complete device, often including hardware and mechanical parts.
Embedded systems contain processing cores that are either micro-controllers, or digital signal processors, controlling many devices in common use today.

Tan says the group’s new RM12mil facility, which was financed internally, will start operations early next year and will be used for developing the embedded systems and the new range of LED test equipment.

2-Dec-13              开发新系统至医疗及汽车业 Elsoft扩大收入基础

          他说,公司目前在国内与多家本地及外国的医疗设备和汽车公司洽谈合作设计和开发自己的设备和仪器的嵌入式系统。

陈氏称:“我们预料将于明年初与一间医疗设备达致协议,以便于明年开始安装嵌入式系统。”

汽车市场是一个增长的行业,这是由于板卡上的安全功能,汽车远程信息处理和电动汽车的需求大增所致。

12-May-14          Interview: Elsoft sees big boost from medical device segment




买入点 | Buy Points

1. 公司拥有非凡的盈利表,成长率,还有接下来也很亮眼的新业务。
2. LED核心业务,属于其中一个大马经济转型的计划,加上工业的需求而继续看好。医疗及汽车的新业务,将会把公司的业绩推上去另一个高峰。这个新行业的盈利,将会是一个以(销售)量来打造的收入。
3. 医疗业务,得到MOH(卫生部)的支持为出发点。也是大马经济转型计划里的其中一环。其中一个产品将会供应给洗肾仪器,也是可以在家用型的仪器。这个业务,先会打入政府医院。过后再介入私人医院和家庭用户。毕竟患病病者越来越多,现有政府医院的场所和设备已经供应不来了。
4. 汽车业务,对身边事物有比较敏感的人,也许会发现到,现在的汽车设备已经开始增加越来越多电子的功能了。所以,未来汽车业的趋势,将会朝向更多电子化的技术在汽车里。这些电子仪器,都需要用到嵌入式系统来控制电子仪器的系统。ELSOFT将会是这类产品的其中一个研发家。
5. 公司在今年的八月未公布股息政策为40%
6. 公司在今年五月尾申请转主板。十月正式向BURSA申请。预测明年头会完成所有转主板的程序。
7. 公司有能力给红股。随时会公布红股来提高流动票。
8. 流动票低(大概7%),只有13千多张票。
9. 基金喜欢型的投资选择公司。
10. 管理层的素质,过去高成长率的记录,和拥有未来亮眼发展的条件。

1. The company has extraordinary performance in earnings record, growth rate, followed by very bright new business segments.
2. In LED segment (current core business), is one of Malaysia's economic transformation program (ETP) and coupled with the needs of industry and this business is continue to be optimistic. For new medical and automotive business, the company's performance is expected to push up another peak. This new industry's profitability will be a volume game.
3. In medical segment, company has the MOH (Ministry of Health) support as a starting point. It is also part of ETP. One of the products will be supplied to the dialysis machine, and it is also a home-based device. This business will first enter the government hospitals and follow by the intervention of private hospitals and home users. The patients are growing, yet the existing government hospital premises and equipment are fully occupied.
4. In automotive segment, if you are sensitive enough the changes, you might find that the current automotive equipment has started adding more and more electronic function. Therefore, the future trend of the automotive industry will be toward more electronic technology in the car. These electronic devices are come with embedded systems that need to control the electronic system of the devices. ELSOFT is one of the player to develop such embedded systems.
5. The company has announced dividend policy of 40% on end of August in this year.
6. The company has proposed application to transfer into mainboard at the end of May this year. Company has officially submitted the application to BURSA on end of August. By forecast, it is estimated to be complete the listing by early of next year.
7. The company has the ability to award shareholder with bonus shares. It is one of the methods to improve the share liquidity by increase the floating share in the market.
8. Very low floating share (about 7%) which is about 13mil shares.
9. The kind of company which are fund managers’ favourite.  
10. Impressive management quality, high growth rates recorded in the past, and have a dazzling future development prospect.


忧虑点 | Weak Points

1. 市场的不稳定性,随时会迎来大调整,而导致公司的股价跟随调整。
2. 新业务的开发不成功或贡献不大。
3. 盈利的增长跟随不上现有的股价估值。

1. Market sentimental is unstable may lead to any market correction in any time, and company share price may follow to fall.
2. New business segments are not successful or insignificant contribution to company earning.
3. Probability is unable to catch up to current high valuation of the share price.


结论 | Summary

          ELSOFT表面上看来不便宜。但是如果投资者有深入对他研究,再加上未来不错的发展前景,其实现在买入来收都不属于贵。好的东西,价值会变得越来越贵。当事实发生在你眼前,他反而会变得比以前更贵。投资看未来,买股看价值。虽然笔者错过了早期更便宜的股价,但是觉得现有的股价,还是很值得投资。

以现在的股价,预测不多散户敢于在这个水平进场。因为大部分的散户都是把股价放在眼里的最前线和属于后知后觉的一群投资者。
还有一个重点,大型基金是不能买入创业板的公司(除了特殊情况)。基金也会对拥有发展前景亮眼的公司爱不释手。

以下是笔者预测过后将会发生在投资字典里的隐形数学公式:
公布股息政策 + 转去主板 + 业绩增长 + 亮眼业务发展前景 = 吸引基金的参与。
》吸引基金参与的附带条件 = 分发红股来增加流动票。

尝试再去思考,再想象。。。如果未来每季的平均EPS4sen5sen,或更高,以现在的股价,到底值不值得比基金早一步先买入来收藏?

          Apparently, ELSOFT seem not cheap. But if investors have in-depth research on this company, coupled with good future prospects, in fact, it is worth to buy in and keep. A good instrument, it will become more expensive by time. If you wait until the facts occurred in front of you, it will become more expensive than ever. Investment on the future, buy at the value. Although I missed the earlier cheaper price, but that the current share price, is worth to invest still.

At the current share price, retail investors most probably not dare to buy in. This is because they are the type of investors who rarely to look on future prospect and lagging in information reading.
Fund managers are not allowed to buy in ACE market listed company (except under special circumstances). But fund manager love too much on companies with great prospects.

Below is a special mathematical formula in my investing dictionary:
》Dividend Policy + Mainboard Transfer + Growing Earnings + Great Business Prospects = Attraction for Fund Manager Participation.
》Additional Condition to Attract Fund Manager to Participate = Bonus Shares Issue to Increase Share’s Liquidity.


Try to think and imagine... If the future quarterly average EPS is 4sen, 5sen, or higher, to the current share price, is it worthwhile to step in ahead before fund manager join the party?