Nuffnang

Sunday, 10 November 2013

[7122] YFG

之前买入YFG【裕丰】纯属是投机。毕竟是投机,所以当时只看2013年里的资料。通过一位网友讲到2012年得到的生物再生能源合约过后,自己也跟着深入研究它。

Basically, I bought in YFG is just for short-term speculation and purely study the details for year 2013. Someone has alerted me about the biomass contract (awarded in Jul-12) in my blog. Due to this, I have made a study on it.


发现这个生物再生能源合约可不简单。瞬间,自己觉得这次的买入不再是投机了。反而是一题很不错的投资。考虑了公司的未来与风险对比,自己再也找不到一个理由不去投资它。
【裕丰】是一个仙股,也是建筑股。对他有兴趣的人应该不多。我就挑战多数人不做的投资来考考个人的眼光。

The biomass contract looks impressive. Feel like I should not treat this buy as speculation, but it is worth to treat as a good investment. After considered the possible of risk vs return, I found no reason why should I avoid it for longer term of investment. YFG is a penny stock and also involve in construction business. This should make most of the investor avoid to invest it. Anyway, I would like to make a challenge by invest on it and to prove my own judgement.

写以下的分析来回答哪位网友的看法:

做建筑生意的公司,不必太在意去预测短期的业绩。需要看的东西是工程几时完成和能影响业绩的数目。然后就拉长来看(一两年后的效果)和耐心的去等。
APSB是从TNB得到这个13MW Biomass Power Generation Plant的工程,合约是21年。建厂的这个责任,APSB给了YFG的子公司做,工程价值是RM110mil。建成后,YFG的子公司也得到五年的管理和保养合约(不包燃烧材料),每年RM4.9mil价值,到时再由APSB决定会不会跟YFG续约(RM4.9mil x 110%
建厂的附带款条件是,部分钱以股份来交换(RM17mil)。其他,是APSB通过Term Loan(RM88mil)的贷款和APSB的股东出小部分钱(RM5mil)来买APSB的股份。APSB会以五个阶段来发出17mil ICPS sharesYFG。整个工程,会在24个月内完成。最新的季报讲,工程会在Q2FY15完成。这代表,2013年尾已经开工了。通常,付款都有credit term的限期,可能是30/60/90天。
其实,Q1FY14最新的季报,Segment Reporting,你可以看到Customer A贡献了RM19,738,452。这个数目,就是第一期Term Loan付款的数目。这个数目,加上股东的付款和部分的ICPS share就是等于24.5mil。
个人看法,这个合约能带给公司一个稳定的收入,毕竟合约是固定的数目。只要公司能够好好控制建筑,管理和保养的费用,赚多少都是在公司的预测范围。公司未来的大方向是要制造一个比较稳定的收入。如果你是老板,这个工程不能达到应有的效应,你会接吗?肯定不会是为了要得到合约而接来做吧?
这个合约值得RM110mil,管理层预测税前盈利率是大概20%。代表,这两年内的收入是RM22mil。比如,扣除25%的税,净盈利是RM16.5mil。这等于每季有RM2.06mil的净盈利(除8)。。。好像很高?不懂是不是还须扣除其他行政开支。如果要保守来算,就给他10-15%税前盈利率好了。要记得,工程完成后,还有每年价值RM4.9mil管理和保养稳定合约。我预测,管理和保养的合约会很好赚。所以,盈利率应该会比较高。
单单讲到这个生物再生能源工程,看来也对公司的贡献也不错。还有其他手上的工程的收入。剩下的分析,就交给大家慢慢去思考思考。。。

My reply (analysis) to Carson88's comment:

For company involve in construction business, I will not predict the business result in short-term, but will look on its contract's value and completion time-frame. Follow by judge the impact from the contracts within 1-2 years. Then, just buy in and wait patiently.

TNB awarded a 21 years contract on 13MW Biomass Power Generation Plant project to APSB. Whereby, APSB awarded the construction, operation and maintenances contract to YFG. Pls see the details below:

"A fully owned subsidiary of YFG has on 10th July 2012 entered into an Operating and Maintenance Agreement (O&M Agreement) with Agni Power Sdn. Bhd. to undertake the operation, maintenance and repair services of the 13MW Biomass Power Generation Plant with 10MV exportable energy to be built, production and supply of electric power to Tenaga Nasional Berhad for a term of Five (5) years  from the date on which APSB shall have certified to YFG under the Engineering, Procurement and Construction Contract (EPC Contract) by means of a Substantial Completion Certificate that APSB has taken over that part of the Proposed Power Plant required to be completed from YFG at an Initial Maintenance Fee amounting to RM4.9 million per annum.

The Initial Maintenance Fee shall include the labour costs, power consumption, water consumption but shall exclude the supply of raw empty fruit bunches of oil palm trees which shall be used as fuel for the Proposed Power Plant and insurances for the Proposed Power Plant.


The parties agree that One (1) year prior to the expiry of the Term, APSB shall have the right to determine whether to further renew the Term and the Maintenance Fee shall be reviewed and increased by a rate of ten per centum (10%) of the Initial Maintenance Fee."

The deal between YFG and APSB is as below, which partial payment (RM17mil) will go through issue of ICPS to YFG. (Represents 19% of the total issued and paid up capital of APSB.)
YFG
YFG - Biomass Contract's Payment Details

The power plant construction has started on Q4FY12 and will complete on Q2FY15. The first payment has been reflected on YFG's balance sheet at Q1FY14 (refer to segment reporting of the quarter report).

The rationale for entering into the O&M Agreement is to fit into YFG’s strategy to diversify its business by providing operation and maintenance services in order to bring in recurring revenue. Once the Proposed Power Plant has been successfully completed and commissioned, the O&M Agreement is expected to bring in recurring revenue which will contribute positively to YFG’s future consolidated earnings and net assets.

The management expects to derive an expected pre-tax margin of approximately 20% arising from EPC contract, representing an estimated pre-tax profit of approximately RM22mil over the 2-year duration of the proposed project. Let's say if the tax is 25%, the total net profit will be RM16.5mil or equivalent to RM2.06mil quarterly (total 8 quarters). It looks a lot? Not sure whether still need to minus off the administration fee. To be conservative, we can give it at 10%-15% discount. To be remind that there will be another RM4.9mil/year arise from maintenance work as recurring income for the company. Normally, maintenance work will come with good profit margin.

Purely look on this biomass contract, it will definitely bring a good impact on initial and recurring income for company. What if by considering other on hand contracts awarded at 2013, valued at more than RM500mil? I will let you all to think about it...

资料来源(Source):
http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/subweb.nsf/all/8B547C11DFFE9A8A48257AC3001A98A1/$File/PJI%20-%20Circular%20(Dated%2027%2011%2012).pdf

之前关于【裕丰】分析(Previous analysis for YFG):基本投机篇:YFG】

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

先谢谢歪大的详尽分析。

“建厂的附带款条件是,部分钱以股份来交换(RM17mil)。其他,是APSB通过Term Loan(RM88mil)的贷款和YFG的股东出小部分钱(RM5mil)来买APSB的股份。”
这边歪大有点搞错了,应该是APSB还要出5million来付款予YFG。之前,我也想过那笔19.73million是不是第一期payment。如果是,应该是19.73M + 1.115M(term loan + cash by APSB)才合理吧。

EPC Contract带来的20%盈利(22M)是很高,不过其中17M将会拿来购买ICPS,所以其实是5M盈利。盈利应该跟着payment一起进账吧?如果能预测到第一期payment,接下来的盈利就比较容易掌握了。

歪大在于O&M contract的考量也很有道理。尤其工厂刚起好,机械还很新,应该不大需要major maintenance。5年过后,ICPS转换成ordinary shares,卖电得来的盈利也可以得到分红,的确是不错的recurring income。

无论如何,YFG的前景的确是可以期待的,尤其是另外在手的5亿项目。呵呵。。

carlson88

TS S said...

YFG的股东出小部分钱(RM5mil)来买APSB的股份。。。然后APSB从这RM5mil来给YFG作为工程的付款。这也代表RM5mil是从YFG股东付出。ICPS没有给股息,限期是20年,五年后才可以转换去普通票。这样的东西,YFG股东既然自己也丢钱进去。还是他们看到什么好处?

RM22mil的盈利,看来只有RM5mil的钱进公司的口袋。但是那“隐形”价值17mil的APSB ICPS,也应是会反射在投资里的盈利表算为一种资产增值(收入)吧?要不然,那价值RM17mil的东西要丢去那里?

五年过后,ICPS可以随时转去普通票,到时才能把所谓“隐形”的收入变成“真正“的收入。

Anonymous said...

请问“YFG的股东出小部分钱(RM5mil)来买APSB的股份”这一点是在哪里看到的呢?因为如没误解,那5mil好像是APSB现有股东再入资进APSB的资金来的。。

其实13MW的棕榈渣焚烧发电厂的规模不会很大,大概需要200-300吨的棕榈渣,一座palm oil mill应该就能提供这个数量的棕榈渣。APSB能和Felda签下fuel supply contract,能和SEDA拿到quota,能从政府拿到approval也不简单的。如果第一座厂能打响头炮,未来要起第二第三座厂都不是问题。另外,焚烧发电厂是很技术性的,如果提供的技术成熟,未来的maintenance部分就不需头痛。这一点就很靠YFG的技术伙伴了,http://www.tjsino.com/en/default.asp。

至于那17mil,希望就如歪大所说那样,算是盈利部分,这样就账目就好看得多了。。:)

carlson88

TS S said...

不好意思,是我自己看错。是APSB的股东,不是YFG的股东。等下要修改之前写的一些资料。
你对油棕行业好像有不错的认识。你是内行人吗?
在资料里看到,YFG在这个行业还是很新。运作费也许会比较高。毕竟管理层讲到可以做到20%的净盈利。那就唯有相信他们吧。
其实我是凭个人的想法去思考盈利表范围的东西。不一定是准确,但是应该也比较逻辑点吧。
漏洞,错误和学问很多时候都是从交谈里学习到了。谢谢你的参与。:)

TS S said...

Carson对油棕股有研究吗?有哪一个是你自己觉得比较有prospect的?我很久没观察油棕股了。没什么心水股。
如果你有研究,可以email我私底下交谈。:)

Anonymous said...

呵呵。。我不是在油棕行业混的,而是在焚烧发电厂行业混,所以可以大概了解在大马要secure直到要起好一座这样的厂的难处。。
不仅是YFG在这行业新,而是这整个绿色能源行业在大马都还很新。就单说要起这一类型的厂,大马就没有这样的技术,可是在外国却已蛮成熟了。

我也没什么看油棕股的哦。。挖掘新股还是歪大比较在行。。呵呵。。
如果看到有潜力的股,再和歪大联络。。 :)

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TS S said...

欢迎连接。。。