Nuffnang

Thursday, 24 March 2016

柔佛的行程

接下来的4和5月份,将会是笔者第一次往南下去做基本与选股课程和投资经验的分享。

本人对远距离的行程有点恐惧感。所以,每年的行程都会有个限制。希望跟有缘和有兴趣一起学习的朋友见个面。

课程所得到的资金,部分会用来做善事。除此之外,笔者也将会把自己所收到的资金,累积到一定的数目后,将会为社会做更多的事情。。。先卖个关子,让本人在未来才揭晓。


Investalks Academy

基本与选股课程是通过Investalks Academy的主办单位进行。

课程:101课程(初级课程)
地点:Crystal Crown Hotel, Johor
日期:9-Apr-2016
时间:9am to 5pm
链接:《LINK》
讲师:Y2K

》基本面的数字知识(基本数字认识,解读财务报告和公司深入资料的了解)
》对象群:没有学过基本面的新手或者想要对财报有进一步认识的投资者。


课程:202课程(选股课程)
地点:Crystal Crown Hotel, Johor
日期:10-Apr-2016
时间:9am to 5pm
链接:《LINK》
讲师:Y2K

》基本面的选股知识(寻找信息,未来盈利预测,买卖决定的考量,隐形信息的思考,找股工具和陷阱数字的可能性)
》对象群:学过基本面的投资者或者想要对新一套选股法认识的投资者。


简单介绍:
现在的Investalks Academy拥有3位讲师:
(LC Chong)曾经是某间上市公司的高层。现在属于一家跨国公司的管理层人物。基本数据的知识可是佼佼者。
(月夜)将要毕业于金融系硕士的年轻人。-善于以简单易懂的方式讲解财政报告和分析经济局势。
(Y2K)已经工作多年的一位底薪工厂劳工。以工程系的知识胡乱解读会计数据的学问。再以不三不四的基本数据方式,创造自己一套赚钱的选股投资方式。


荷兰客栈

投资经验的分享是与荷兰客栈的队员一起主办。

课程:实战经验的分享
地点:Crystal Crown Hotel, Johor
日期:14-May-2016
时间:9am to 5pm
链接:《LINK》
讲师:糊涂,寒江,Y2K


简单介绍:
荷兰客栈是由一群股痴而成立。每位成员都有个人的强行。某些队员的实战经验可不输与外界有名的投资者。
(糊涂)拥有16年投资经验的老手。不管投机还是投资,都是一位赚钱达人。晓得利用简单的数据分析,为自己的投资生涯都稳赚不赔。
(寒江)一位精明的投资者。晓得利用身边的资源,再配合基本面的条件,不管追高或捞底,都是多赚少赔,大赚小赔的状况。


注意:Investalks Academy和荷兰客栈的课程,各有不一样的分享方式,也不会带来任何咨询冲突。

Saturday, 19 March 2016

如何判断某间公司的合理价?How to determine a price tag for a company?

个人经常遇到新人问的2个问题:
1. 如何判断某间公司的合理价?
2. 如何寻找到你投资的对象股?

昨天花了一些时间,制造一个虚幻的情景来解释(1)的疑问。

故事虚幻的情景:

【第一阶段】
A公司,过去3年的盈利都是成长于3-5%的速度,股息率只有1%,市场先生给它PE7的“合理”价(比如:eps10sen,股价RM0.70)。

【第二阶段】
接下来的2年,公司决定不再给股息,因为要积极扩充业务。高层也表态会为接下来的未来3年达到每年30%的成长。
在第一年扩充业务时期,扩充费用(CAPEX)突然大增和一些不能控制的外来因素而导致盈利大减70%(eps3sen)。股价稍微下跌20%,(RM0.56),“合理”价变成PE18.6。

【第三阶段】
在第二年扩充业务时期,扩充费用继续增加,但是外来因素渐渐地平稳起来了,而盈利回升去(eps8sen)水平。股价回稳和升上到(RM0.80),“合理”价变成PE10。

【第四阶段】
扩充业务如预期中完成和开始运作的第一年就达到70% capacity。扩充费用明显减少。盈利比初期大增25%到(eps12.5sen)水平。股价大涨(RM1.50),“合理”价变成PE12。

【第五阶段】
扩充业务完成后的第二年,capacity运作提升到90%。盈利比去年大增30%到(eps16.25sen)水平。公司重新公布股息,10sen。股价大涨(RM2.50),股息率为4%,“合理”价变成PE15。4。

合理价背后的因素和思考点:

【第一阶段】
成长和股息都不吸引。估值自然不高。(PE7)

【第二阶段】
(负面因素):扩充需要2年才能看到盈利效应,再加上没有股息回归给股东。30%的成长也只是高层的称若,不一定会做到。还有高扩充费用和一些难以预测外来因素的影响。所以,那段时期也会带给部分投资者很多忧虑。这些投资者会卖股出场。(利好因素)扩充将会带来30%的盈利成长,虽然扩充其中盈利可能会大跌,但是有部分大型长期投资者看好未来的发展和认为管理层能讲到做到,所以趁机低价进场买入也带来扶持股价的效应(跌不多,股价-20% vs 盈利-70%)。。。此2派投资者的对立,导致看以“不合理”的估值(PE18.6)。

【第三阶段】
盈利开始回稳。扩充也接近尾声。此时,虽然盈利还没创新高,但是股价已经悄悄被有心人推高。这是因为市场投资者开始对未来的成长抱着正面的期望。(PE10)

【第四阶段】业务扩充明显带来高成长水平(25% vs 30%),非常接近高层的称若。虽然还是没有给股息,但是成长率已经足够让公司的“合理”价变得更高。(PE12)

【第五阶段】
30%的高成长水平,管理层的素质,重新给(高)股息,市场先生非常乐意把以前完全不明亮的一颗星(PE7)变为一颗明星(PE15.4)。


以上的构想,只是其中一种状况。要如何判断某间公司的合理价,是没有一个固定的程式。只有灵活性的应对。


There are 2 common questions often asked by newbies:
1. How to determine a price tag for a company?
2. How to figure out a company to invest?

I have spent some of my free time to create a virtual story to answer the question (1).

The story:

【Stage 1】
Company A has a track record of 3-5% profit growth in the past 3 years. Also give dividend at about 1% yield. Mr market valued it at PE 7. (E.g. EPS 10sen, share price RM0.70)

【Stage 2】
Company decided not to distribution dividend anymore for the next 2 years because they are going to do aggressive expansion during that period of time. The management team is confident to achieve 30% annual profit growth for the next 3 years once the expansion activity is completed.
In the first year of expansion, the company profit has plunged -70% (EPS 3sen) due to sudden rise in CAPEX and affected by unavoidable external influence to the business. The share price has dropped 20% (RM0.56) and its valuation become PE18.6.

【Stage 3】
During final year of expansion, its CAPEX still remain at high side, but the external interference to business has been settled down comfortably. Its profit has returned to comfortable level (EPS 8sen) and share price rise to RM0.80. Its valuation become PE10.

【Stage 4】
Expansion plan has been completed as per schedule and achieved 70% capacity utilization in the first year. CAPEX has been reduced to minimum level. Company profit has increased 25% compared to the before expansion mode (EPS 12.5sen). Share price increased dramatically to RM1.50. Thus, its valuation now improved to PE10.

【Stage 5】
It is the 2nd year after the expansion plan, capacity utilization has improved to 90%. Profit growth for this year is 30% (EPS 16.25sen). Company decided to repay (good) dividend to reward shareholders at 10sen per share. Its share price has exploded to RM2.50 and Dividend Yield improved to 4%. Finally, Mr Market awarded them with a price tag at PE15.4.


The rational behind the price tag and its consideration points.

【Stage 1】
Unattractive growth rate and DY. Low valuation is expected (PE 7).

【Stage 2】
(Negative influences)
Expansion plan take about 2 years to company and there is no dividend payment during that period of time. It is just a verbal promise of 30% profit growth by the management which may not become reality at last. High CAPEX and external market influence may affect company profit during expansion time. Part of the company existing investors are tend to sell their shares due to all of those highlighted concerns.
(Positive influences)
The expansion plan to bring a great figure for profit growth (30% per year). This prospect attracted some of the new investors who aim for longer term of investment, trying to buy in when share price fall due to bad time (profit dropped -70%). This type of investors are not worry about the short term influence to the company profit. Their effort to buy in has provided reasonable support to the share price (only drop -20%). Due to different approaches done by 2 different types of investors, the valuation for the company become unreasonable "expensive" at PE 18.6.

【Stage 3】
Profit has returned to stable level and its expansion plan is almost end. Although the profit yet break new high (EPS 8sen vs 10sen), the price share shown great response to hit new high (RM0.80 vs RM0.70). At this time, investors are expecting positive prospect in profit growth from the expansion. Thus, investors are willing to pay at price at PE 10 to buy in.

【Stage 4】
The expansion has proved a 25% profit growth result and the figure is very close to the management's prediction. Although there is no dividend announcement for the year, the growth prospect has given a good reason for investors to value it at PE 12.

【Stage 5】
With 30% profit growth rate, the excellent quality of the management team and much higher dividend yield rate, Mr Market is very happy to transform an ugly duck (PE 7) to become a golden goose (PE 15.4).

Above virtual story is just one of the example to explain the price tag valuation. There is no fixed formula to determine a price tag on a company. We have to be flexible in dealing each situation and also learn from experiences.

Monday, 28 December 2015

[0155] MGRC


公司背景

人类都会经过生,老,病,死的阶段。每个人的差异都会跟基因和生活素质息息相关。除了人类以外,与整个大环境有关联的生物也不例外。要深入了解如此复杂的关系可算是不简单的任务。在大马的股市里,正有一家把如此复杂的东西作为其业务。

跟基因学有关联的业务,其实并不容易了解。对一般大众而言,属于一个非常陌生的生意。基因,也许大家都有听闻过,但是有深入了解的人可不多,包括笔者。身为一名保守的投资者,如果对公司的业务不了解,都应该尽量避免去投资。因为笔者对如此不平凡的业务充满好奇心和感兴趣,所以决心下足功夫一步一步深入了解,而不是排个马屁不了了之。以下的文章,可以让大家比较了解关于基因背后的咨询。

Ø  一个跟A-C-G-T有关联的业务。


Ø  企业宣传片


公司的业务

以下是公司的业务分布。笔者以一位普通投资者的简单方式来大概讲解。
Ø  基因组测序
o    从零开始的某些基因研究工作。
Ø  基因组分析
o    已经有了基因组测序咨询,但是要了解某些基因深入的分析。
Ø  基因检查
o    了解个人对某种疾病的风险程度。
Ø  病理学实验室
o    病理学是研究引起疾病或由疾病造成的机体器官和组织的结构和功能变化
Ø  诊断服务
o    鉴定某些疾病。

基因组测序和基因组分析,属于合约性业务。基因检查,病理学实验室和诊断服务,属于经常性收入业务。过去几年的时间,公司正积极把业务转型,从2010年上市时完全依赖合约性的收入,渐渐地增加经常性的收入。


基因组测序和分析,都是属于大型工程的来源。主要跟大机构和医学院相关的对象合作。合约都是需要长时间更近才能得到手,大概812月。一旦合约到手,都会让公司忙上更长的时间。

其中比较大型的合约包括与森那美(Sime Darby)合作的工程。在2009年,该公司已经成功破译油棕遗传学,使之成为世界上第一家实现这一科学突破。公司也在201411月从FELDA WELLNESS得到19百万的合约,预测将会在2017年才完工。公司最近期的杰作就是与Monash University Malaysia大学研究小组成功研究首宗鱼类(亚洲龙鱼)的基因组测序。

基因组测序和分析业务,专家预测全球现状到2018年的年复合增长率是21%,也代表2018年将会达到80120亿美元的销售值。除此之外,外包的趋势正在增加,主要从美国和欧盟去到亚洲。
公司在此业务的贡献可以讲是非常多元化。还有很多让大家难以想象的工程。


基因检查,是近期公司得到快速成长的其中一个业务。Dtect是公司所创办的一系列的基因筛检服务,主要通过基因检查让大众提前预防个人有可能遇到的高风险疾病。它根据已确认的基因标记为顾客进行DNA筛检。这些标记也称为基因变异,与疾病风险息息相关。每项Dtect测试是专为一组特定的疾病而设,如心血管疾病、代谢性疾病和​​儿科疾病。Dtect检验报告能帮助检查者管理自己及亲人的健康。暂时Dtect测试的系列有以下五款。如无意外,公司将在2016年推出多一款新测试系列。详情就让公司在适当的时间才公布吧!


笔者本身曾经尝试Dtect Metabolic的测试,可以大概了解其中的过程。他们将会给你一个DNA口腔抹拭采集工具包,里面主要包括一根棉签,一个管子和一粒硅胶。然后跟着以下简单的步骤就完成收集测试者的样本。


分析报告大概会在2个星期出炉。过后就跟基因顾问见面了解详情。


更多的详情可以参考网站的咨询:http://dtect.com/dtect-tests-2/dtect-metabolic/


每款Dtect测试,一生人只需做一次,因为分析出来的个人基因资料将不会在未来而改变。每款Dtect测试价钱大概是1千到2千马币的范围。

大家可以看以下的短片来了解关于Dtect的功能。


病理学实验室,简单的讲解就是实验我们的器官,组织和体液(比如血液和尿液)来检查疾病的可能性。其实,病理学的服务是非常广阔。其中的服务就如大众所做的年度身体检查服务。比较常见的竞争对手有如BP Labs。但是公司主要跟医生和医院以合伙的方式合作,而不像BP Labs那样直接做门面的生意。其中的原因是与MGRC的创办人(Robert George Hercus)有关联。因为他是澳洲人,所以公司的生意会比较接近澳洲人的模式,特别专注自己的专长给与客户最专业的服务。公司相信通过人脉和专注的服务将会带来更好的效果。

20127月,公司公布通过其子公司MPath Sdn Bhd,收购Clinipath (Malaysia)Clinipath CapitalMedical Scan70%100%100%的股份。这也让公司正式添加了病理学的业务。在201312月和20156月,公司也继续把CM的股权提升到95%100%MPath Sdn BhdMGRCAJMAKS各自拥有50%股权的子公司。以2014年估计,CM持有6%的大马私营部门病理市场。整个大马市场的价值大概是4.28亿马币。此市值,预测2019年将会达到7.54亿马币,公司也放眼希望到时能够占有10%的市场率。

什么是病理学?
http://www.news-medical.net/health/What-is-Pathology-(Simplified-Chinese).aspx


诊断服务,属于病理学的一部分,主要是鉴定某些疾病。北美洲和澳洲属于这个行业的发达国,医生所做出的70%医疗决定,都是依赖诊断服务。福布斯的预测,此行业在2020年的未来,全球的销售值将会达到800亿美元。诊断服务里,分子诊断是增长最快的一环。它有望成为公司在未来另一个增长的业务领域。

以上的分享只属于笔者个人的了解程度,其中通过自行阅读和与专业人士交谈中得到的信息。笔者不是该行业的专家,资料也许会有差异。
接下来的文章,笔者将会继续谈到公司业务关联的咨询和个人对它的看法,比如其中的风险,转型中的变化与一些隐形的思考。

注:此文章只是纯属公司分享,并非买卖的建议。笔者认为,短期内的股价已经合理化。加上公司还有不明朗的状况。过后会慢慢继续谈。


【继续】


Company Background

Humanity will go through birth, aging, sickness and death phases. Differences in each person will be closely linked with genes and quality of life. In addition to humans, the entire creature associated with our environment is no exception. It is not an easy task to understand such a complex relationship. In the Malaysian stock market, there is a company involving in such complicated task as their business.

DNA is not an easy term to understand. Generally, it is not a common business to public. You may have heard the word of DNA, but may not have deep knowledge in it. So do I. As a conservative investor, you should avoid to invest in a company which you can’t understand its business. Its extraordinary business made me full of curiosity and interest, so I’m determined to work hard to understand it step by step, rather than an exclusive to skip it. With the following articles, we can understand more about DNA.

Ø  A business related to A-C-G-T


Ø  CORPORATE VIDEO


公司的业务 | Company Services

Below are the company business segments. Author as an ordinary investor to explains it in simple way.
Ø  Genome Sequencing
o    Perform a totally new genomics research.
Ø  Genome Analysis
o     To accelerate genomics research according to project goals.
Ø  Genetic Screening
o    To understand the risk for certain diseases
Ø  Pathology Lab
o    Pathology is the study of the way diseases and illnesses develop.
Ø  Diagnostic Services
o    To identify certain diseases

Contract base services are Genome Sequencing & Genome Analysis (Analytical Services). Recurring base services are Genetic Screening, Pathology Lab & Diagnostic Services. In the past few years, company is making effort in business transformation from contract base revenue to recurring base revenue.


Analytical Services is the large-scale project sources to the company. Their customers are those institution and medical field related parties. Normally, company takes a long time to secure a substantial project which may take about 8-12 months. But it takes a long time to complete the contract.

One of the substantial contracts completed is in year 2009. Sime Darby Bhd has successfully deciphered the genetics of the oil palm, making it the world’s first company to achieve this scientific breakthrough. Also in November 2014, the company has secured RM19 million contracts awarded from FELDA WELLNESS and expect to be completed in 2017. For the most recent news, MGRC is involved with Monash University Malaysia University research team and successful research first Malaysian fish (Asian arowana) genome sequencing. (For details, see Appendix News)
Experts predict that by 2018, the global revenue from analytical services will hit USD 8 – 12 billion at 21% CAGR. In addition, also see increasing trend in outsourcing to Asia from US and EU.

There is a lot of efforts can be offer by the company in this segment. As a layman, you will hardly to imagine it.


Genetic Screening is the one of the company’s segments seeing a rapid growth in recent time. The company has used genomic technologies to create "Dtect", which can help screen human DNA for genetic variations, thus enabling humans to empower and better manage their health. Dtect offers a series of genetic screening services. It is a preventive test to help someone to understand their risk in certain diseases according to their own genetic. Dtect is designed to screen someone’s DNA for known genetic markers. These markers, also known as variants, are associated with risks for diseases, disorders, conditions or traits. The results from the Dtect tests can help them manage their health, and the health of their loved ones. All tests are accurate for known genetic markers. Complex diseases may require comprehensive tests that utilize a wider range of markers, or DNA sequencing. Barring unforeseen circumstances, the company will launch an interesting new test in 2016. Let’s wait for it!


I have experience in the Dtect test as I have took Dtect Metabolic before. They will give you a DNA Buccal Swab Kit and it comes with a swab, a tube and a silica gel in capsule shape. Then, just follow below simples steps in order to retrieval of DNA from mouth.


Reports will be released in about two weeks. Then you should arrange a schedule with Genomics Consultant for advice.
             

Pls refer to the link for more detailshttp://dtect.com/dtect-tests/dtect-metabolic/


For each test, only need to do once in lifetime as our genetic will not change in life. The cost for each Dtect test is range is about RM1k to RM2k.

Check out the following video clip to learn more about Dtect.


Pathology lab is a simple vehicle to exam our organs, tissues, and body fluids (eg blood and urine) to examine the possibility of certain diseases. In fact, the pathology service is very broad and our annual medical check is part of it. BP Labs is the more well-known competitor that we can notice easily. Anyway, the company mainly carrying partnership with doctors and hospitals rather than direct facing with public likes BP Labs. Part of the reason for this is related to the MGRC founder (Robert George Hercus). As he is Australian, the company's business will be relatively close to the Australian model, particularly focus on their expertise to give customers the most professional service. Company believes it will work well through partnership and professional focus.

In July 2012, the company announced through its associate MPath Sdn Bhd, acquired Clinipath (Malaysia), Clinipath Captail and Medical Scan at 70%, 100% and 100% of the shares respectively. Officially, company has entered into pathology business. In December 2013 and June 2015, the company also continued to raise their stake in CM to 95% and 100% respectively. MPath Sdn Bhd is a 50:50 Joint-Venture company for MGRC and AJMAKS. In 2014, CM holds 6% of Malaysia’s private sector pathology market share which valued at RM428 million. Beyond to 2019, CM is targeting to reach 10% of market share which could value at RM754mil.


Diagnostic services, part of pathology, is use to identify certain diseases. North America and Australia are the very well developed countries in this field and 70% of healthcare decisions made by doctors are very depending on diagnostic test. According to Forbes’s forecast, global market revenue will hit USD 80 billion by 2020. Fastest growing segment is molecular diagnostics. It is expected to be another growing business segment for the company in the future.


Above share belongs only to the extent of my personal understanding, which through own reading and conversation with professionals. I’m not the industry experts, the information may vary.

In coming articles, I will talk more about business related information and some personal views on the company, such as the risks, changes seen from the company’s transformation and some wild guess through certain information.

Attn: This is only a sharing on the company business, not buy/sell recommendation. In my opinion, the share price has reflected its short term value and it still come with some uncertainty conditions. I shall share it later.



To be continue

Saturday, 28 November 2015

Investalks Academy高级课程正式开跑!

简单介绍:

笔者的基本面投资方式不一定是完美和最好的。但是最少可以让自己学习一套可以在股市赚钱的生存之道。希望笔者的一套学问,最底线可以帮助大家避免基本面不好的投资对象。通过基本面的知识,也可以把投资的风险降低。能够把坏的因素抛离,所得到好投资的几率自然会变得更高。

笔者认为,基本面的知识,是比容易掌握的学问,尤其是给予有不错教育程度的投资者。主要的障碍通常会出现在时间上和恒心的因素。只要能够克服两者,基本面的知识其实不难掌握。

前贴感言:【Investalks基本面课程】 | Investalks Academy

以下的图,是笔者从一位新手的经历到未来自我提升学习的过程。学习的路程是一门漫长时间的学问和考验。

笔者非常相信,一间公司的内在价值,如果在未来的时间会比起现在的状况继续增值,股价会经过艰难的波动而向上奔跑。

好了,回到讲解高级课的内容。

高级课程的大纲如下:

  1. 课程前菜 (Introduction)
  2. 寻找信息 (Information Sourcing)
  3. 未来盈利预测 (Predict The Future Earning)
  4. 隐形信息的思考 (Think On The Hidden Messages)
  5. 买卖决定考虑点 (Decision Making In Buy Sell)
  6. 找股工具 (Stock Selection Tool)
  7. 陷阱数字的可能性 (Possibility On Figure Trap)
  8. 示范个股分析 (Stock Analysis Examples)
【1-5】,将会以一间上市公司作为每个程序的分析为例子。

给予【8】示范个股分析,高级课程的方案将会做得多元化。不一样的讲师将会用个人专长的选股技巧来做示范。示范个股的选择,也会随着不一样的讲师和时间而更改。

笔者特别喜欢寻找比较不起眼(低调)和未来有成长的公司。
不但如此,此次高级课程的示范个股分析,笔者会以比较特殊的分析方式来选股。笔者暂时还没看过有其他分析文章用如此的方式来做预测和分析。(也许我也没把网络上的全部文章看完吧?!)

此特殊的预测:将会在明年内得到一个对或错的答案。
特殊盈利预测:突然盈利转折点的效应。
未来盈利预测:如何预测新业务的盈利。

它,属于一只不多人关注的低价股。
它,近一年的盈利一直倒退。
它,大股东坚持在公开市场一直增持股票。
它,最坏的时期已经过了。
它,转折点即将会出现。
它,“突然”盈利将会出现(特殊预测)。
它,新业务将会不久后完成。
它,新的业务将会带来非常稳定的盈利。
它,虽然还是有些风险。但是,它属于被低估了。

它,到底是什么股?此次高级课程将会揭晓!

如果时间允许,将会添加1-2间上市公司来让大家了解笔者亲身分析过程经验的分享。(过去与最近的例子)

有兴趣参与课程的投资者,可以到此部落格左上角的连接看详情或按此《link》

注意:此课程的分享,纯属让大家了解如何做分析,而不是买卖的建议。

Friday, 16 October 2015

Participation Analysis 【参与率分析】 @ 15-Oct-15

今天的大市不懂外资是净买还是净卖。可以肯定的是,过去7个交易日,外资都是净买家。上两次拥有连续7个交易为净买家的外资,已经是2015年3月中和2014年4月未的事情了。此次的交易值都比前2次来的大。接下来的走势会如何走,也许大家可以看回之前的走势作为参考。会不会有相同的走势,只有过后才懂。

Foreign investors movement is unknown for today's market. Anyhow, foreign investors have been the net buyer for the past 7 days consecutively. The previous 2 times recorded with 7 days consecutively net buy by foreign investor were mid-Mar'15 & end-Apr'15. But this time is showing higher traded value compared to the previous. Perhaps we can use the past trends to predict the coming market trend. Time will prove whether similar trend will happen.




LR - Local Retails 【散户】
LI - Local Institution 【本地基金】
F - Foreign 【外资】

Sunday, 11 October 2015

LANDMRK: AGM信息 (AGM Information)

前几个月的股票市场情绪很糟糕,为了避免不再多加恐慌,所以没有立刻公开地分享公司的AGM信息。观察了这个星期的市场情绪后,加上外资开始出现少许的回流(6-Oct @ 0.6亿,7-Oct @ 2.9亿 & 8-Oct @ 1.2亿),才选择开始做简单的分析。虽然笔者选择开始慢步进场,主要选择跌得深和有价值的股,但是还是必须步步为营来操作。一旦观察到外资再大力抛售,将会选择出场再做观众。下个星期再给大家跟进参与率的分析。

讲回正题。通过Landmrk AGM的信息,可以了解之前的盈利预期做得太乐观了。水晶湖(Crystal Lagoon)的开张是如期进行,但是周围设备的进展还是在很初期的阶段。如此的进展,看来还是需要多2年才可以看到比较明显的盈利。到时候,国际机场也应该接近开始运作的时期。

大家可以耐心地跟踪此公司的进展。笔者还是相信,此公司在未来将会有一番作为,只是时间上的出差。

Market sentimental is very bad in the past few months. It caused me become hesitate to share the AGM information and to avoid unnecessary further panic to investors. The market sentimental looks better in this week and the foreign investors are coming back slowly (6-Oct @ 61mil,7-Oct @ 290mil & 8-Oct @ 120mil). Thus, I decided to share it today. I have started to step in into market in slow pace by focus on deep falling and undervalued stocks. But I still remind myself to be very caution in this market. If the foreign investors are back to great selling mode, I shall retreat as observer again. I will make a Participation Analysis by next week to follow the situation.

Back to the topic. From the Landmark AGM's information, it is very obvious that my previous prediction on the timing is too optimistic. Crystal Lagoon was successfully launched as per schedule, but the surrounding accommodation and facilities are still in very preliminary stage. With this kind of progress, it seem need another 2 years before we can see significant profit to surface. By that time, the launch date of international airport should be around the corner as well.

Just monitor the Treasure Bay Bintan development progress closely. I still believe it is just matter of time in order to let the company to perform well in the future.

Source: Credit to Angie.


Monday, 21 September 2015

Participation Analysis 【参与率分析】 @ 21-Sep-15

26个交易日,外资就卖了21天。上3个交易日,外资买到比较有诚意,但是今天就突然翻脸变卖家。到底接下来的走势会如何发展?

个人追踪了此数据已经有三年多了。但是还捉不到数据背后的真正巧妙灵感。也许需要更多的数据时间来观察。也许多加一到二个牛熊市。

2012年5月算起,外资累积了一年的票直到2013的5月。过后就一直卖到现在。卖出的市值是2012-2013所累积的1.5倍。会多吗?如果把考虑的范围从2009-2012的五月前累积的票也算在里头,个人认为不会多。可以肯定的是,那1.5倍市值被出售的票,肯定赚翻了,也成功把指数维持在高水平。

如果纯属猜测,笔者比较导向更低的指数走势。外资的前3个交易日为何买入?是不是为了推高卖股的空间(推指数高)和得到更多的卖票权(制造卖压)?没有一个答案。唯有继续观看接下来的股市进展。更重要的是,笔者还没有以前大事进场的胆量,因为已经不大会投资在现有的市场了。

From the listed 26 number of trading days, foreign investor (F) has sold in 21 days. From the recent 3 trading days, (F) bought back some significant value of shares. But, (F) made an immediate U turn today. How the show is going on after this?

I tracked such trading data for more than 3 years and still counting. Anyway, I'm still unable to get some solid hints from such trading data analysis. I guess I still need much more time on this. Perhaps need to add on 1 to 2 bullish and bearish market.

Started from May'12, (F) is accumulating share until May'13. It follow by unstoppable selling mode until today. The sold traded value is 1.5 times compared to its accumulation from 2012-2013. Is it a lot? I don't think so if we consider its accumulation since from 2009-2012 which is not under my tracking database. One thing to be sure that, (F) has got good profit from its 1.5 times sold traded value in share and still maintain the index in reasonable high level.

By pure guess, author is more toward to further downside for index. What is the reason for (F) bought back in recent 3 trading days? To create more room for selling (push up the index) and get more share for control power (make selling pressure)? No answer for it. Just continue to see the coming market show. Anyway, I strayed in such market condition as I dare not to buy big as what I did in the past.




LR - Local Retails 【散户】
LI - Local Institution 【本地基金】
F - Foreign 【外资】