Investalks Academy高级课程正式开跑！

简单介绍：

笔者的基本面投资方式不一定是完美和最好的。但是最少可以让自己学习一套可以在股市赚钱的生存之道。希望笔者的一套学问，最底线可以帮助大家避免基本面不好的投资对象。通过基本面的知识，也可以把投资的风险降低。能够把坏的因素抛离，所得到好投资的几率自然会变得更高。

笔者认为，基本面的知识，是比容易掌握的学问，尤其是给予有不错教育程度的投资者。主要的障碍通常会出现在时间上和恒心的因素。只要能够克服两者，基本面的知识其实不难掌握。

前贴感言：【Investalks基本面课程】 | Investalks Academy

以下的图，是笔者从一位新手的经历到未来自我提升学习的过程。学习的路程是一门漫长时间的学问和考验。

笔者非常相信，一间公司的内在价值，如果在未来的时间会比起现在的状况继续增值，股价会经过艰难的波动而向上奔跑。

好了，回到讲解高级课的内容。

高级课程的大纲如下：

1. 课程前菜 (Introduction)
2. 寻找信息 (Information Sourcing)
3. 未来盈利预测 (Predict The Future Earning)
4. 隐形信息的思考 (Think On The Hidden Messages)
5. 买卖决定考虑点 (Decision Making In Buy Sell)
6. 找股工具 (Stock Selection Tool)
7. 陷阱数字的可能性 (Possibility On Figure Trap)
8. 示范个股分析 (Stock Analysis Examples)

【1-5】，将会以一间上市公司作为每个程序的分析为例子。

给予【8】示范个股分析，高级课程的方案将会做得多元化。不一样的讲师将会用个人专长的选股技巧来做示范。示范个股的选择，也会随着不一样的讲师和时间而更改。

笔者特别喜欢寻找比较不起眼（低调）和未来有成长的公司。

不但如此，此次高级课程的示范个股分析，笔者会以比较特殊的分析方式来选股。笔者暂时还没看过有其他分析文章用如此的方式来做预测和分析。（也许我也没把网络上的全部文章看完吧？!）

此特殊的预测：将会在明年内得到一个对或错的答案。

特殊盈利预测：突然盈利转折点的效应。

未来盈利预测：如何预测新业务的盈利。

它，属于一只不多人关注的低价股。

它，近一年的盈利一直倒退。

它，大股东坚持在公开市场一直增持股票。

它，最坏的时期已经过了。

它，转折点即将会出现。

它，“突然”盈利将会出现（特殊预测）。

它，新业务将会不久后完成。

它，新的业务将会带来非常稳定的盈利。

它，虽然还是有些风险。但是，它属于被低估了。

它，到底是什么股？此次高级课程将会揭晓！

如果时间允许，将会添加1-2间上市公司来让大家了解笔者亲身分析过程经验的分享。（过去与最近的例子）

有兴趣参与课程的投资者，可以到此部落格左上角的连接看详情或按此《link》。

注意：此课程的分享，纯属让大家了解如何做分析，而不是买卖的建议。

Participation Analysis 【参与率分析】 @ 15-Oct-15

今天的大市不懂外资是净买还是净卖。可以肯定的是，过去7个交易日，外资都是净买家。上两次拥有连续7个交易为净买家的外资，已经是2015年3月中和2014年4月未的事情了。此次的交易值都比前2次来的大。接下来的走势会如何走，也许大家可以看回之前的走势作为参考。会不会有相同的走势，只有过后才懂。

Foreign investors movement is unknown for today's market. Anyhow, foreign investors have been the net buyer for the past 7 days consecutively. The previous 2 times recorded with 7 days consecutively net buy by foreign investor were mid-Mar'15 & end-Apr'15. But this time is showing higher traded value compared to the previous. Perhaps we can use the past trends to predict the coming market trend. Time will prove whether similar trend will happen.

LR - Local Retails 【散户】

LI - Local Institution 【本地基金】

F - Foreign 【外资】

LANDMRK: AGM信息 (AGM Information)

前几个月的股票市场情绪很糟糕，为了避免不再多加恐慌，所以没有立刻公开地分享公司的AGM信息。观察了这个星期的市场情绪后，加上外资开始出现少许的回流（6-Oct @ 0.6亿，7-Oct @ 2.9亿 & 8-Oct @ 1.2亿），才选择开始做简单的分析。虽然笔者选择开始慢步进场，主要选择跌得深和有价值的股，但是还是必须步步为营来操作。一旦观察到外资再大力抛售，将会选择出场再做观众。下个星期再给大家跟进参与率的分析。

讲回正题。通过Landmrk AGM的信息，可以了解之前的盈利预期做得太乐观了。水晶湖（Crystal Lagoon）的开张是如期进行，但是周围设备的进展还是在很初期的阶段。如此的进展，看来还是需要多2年才可以看到比较明显的盈利。到时候，国际机场也应该接近开始运作的时期。

大家可以耐心地跟踪此公司的进展。笔者还是相信，此公司在未来将会有一番作为，只是时间上的出差。

Market sentimental is very bad in the past few months. It caused me become hesitate to share the AGM information and to avoid unnecessary further panic to investors. The market sentimental looks better in this week and the foreign investors are coming back slowly (6-Oct @ 61mil，7-Oct @ 290mil & 8-Oct @ 120mil). Thus, I decided to share it today. I have started to step in into market in slow pace by focus on deep falling and undervalued stocks. But I still remind myself to be very caution in this market. If the foreign investors are back to great selling mode, I shall retreat as observer again. I will make a Participation Analysis by next week to follow the situation.

Back to the topic. From the Landmark AGM's information, it is very obvious that my previous prediction on the timing is too optimistic. Crystal Lagoon was successfully launched as per schedule, but the surrounding accommodation and facilities are still in very preliminary stage. With this kind of progress, it seem need another 2 years before we can see significant profit to surface. By that time, the launch date of international airport should be around the corner as well.

Just monitor the Treasure Bay Bintan development progress closely. I still believe it is just matter of time in order to let the company to perform well in the future.

Source: Credit to Angie.

Participation Analysis 【参与率分析】 @ 21-Sep-15

26个交易日，外资就卖了21天。上3个交易日，外资买到比较有诚意，但是今天就突然翻脸变卖家。到底接下来的走势会如何发展？

个人追踪了此数据已经有三年多了。但是还捉不到数据背后的真正巧妙灵感。也许需要更多的数据时间来观察。也许多加一到二个牛熊市。

2012年5月算起，外资累积了一年的票直到2013的5月。过后就一直卖到现在。卖出的市值是2012-2013所累积的1.5倍。会多吗？如果把考虑的范围从2009-2012的五月前累积的票也算在里头，个人认为不会多。可以肯定的是，那1.5倍市值被出售的票，肯定赚翻了，也成功把指数维持在高水平。

如果纯属猜测，笔者比较导向更低的指数走势。外资的前3个交易日为何买入？是不是为了推高卖股的空间（推指数高）和得到更多的卖票权（制造卖压）？没有一个答案。唯有继续观看接下来的股市进展。更重要的是，笔者还没有以前大事进场的胆量，因为已经不大会投资在现有的市场了。

From the listed 26 number of trading days, foreign investor (F) has sold in 21 days. From the recent 3 trading days, (F) bought back some significant value of shares. But, (F) made an immediate U turn today. How the show is going on after this?

I tracked such trading data for more than 3 years and still counting. Anyway, I'm still unable to get some solid hints from such trading data analysis. I guess I still need much more time on this. Perhaps need to add on 1 to 2 bullish and bearish market.

Started from May'12, (F) is accumulating share until May'13. It follow by unstoppable selling mode until today. The sold traded value is 1.5 times compared to its accumulation from 2012-2013. Is it a lot? I don't think so if we consider its accumulation since from 2009-2012 which is not under my tracking database. One thing to be sure that, (F) has got good profit from its 1.5 times sold traded value in share and still maintain the index in reasonable high level.

By pure guess, author is more toward to further downside for index. What is the reason for (F) bought back in recent 3 trading days? To create more room for selling (push up the index) and get more share for control power (make selling pressure)? No answer for it. Just continue to see the coming market show. Anyway, I strayed in such market condition as I dare not to buy big as what I did in the past.

LR - Local Retails 【散户】
LI - Local Institution 【本地基金】
F - Foreign 【外资】

【Investalks基本面课程】 | Investalks Academy

去年，笔者以个人身份开始了第一次的基本面课程。上次的课程，属于配合初级和高级的连续性课题。过后发觉部分没有基本面知识的学员上课起来比较吃力。所以，觉得完善的基本面课程必须把初级和高级的课题分开来教。除此之外，也可以让已经有很好基础知识的人直接参与高级的课程。

笔者非常感激去年那批有缘人，面子书和上基本课程的投资同道之人。尤其是上基本课程的那批投资者，给了笔者一个机会成为一名初出茅庐和不达标的导师。笔者在此公布，跟他们的WECHAT组群将会一次性付费和永久性的限期作为回报。

接下来的未来，笔者将会与Investalks论坛合作创办Investalks Academy来教导基本面课程。
以下是关于Investalks Academy的大方向：


Investalks Academy的课程分类：

1）初级：基本面的数字知识（基本数字认识，解读财务报告和公司深入资料的了解）
**对象群：没有学过基本面的新手或者想要对财报有进一步认识的投资者。**

2）高级：基本面的选股知识（寻找信息，未来盈利预测，买卖决定的考量，隐形信息的思考，找股工具和陷阱数字的可能性）
**对象群：学过基本面的投资者或者想要对新一套选股法认识的投资者。**


Investalks Academy的特点：

将会被邀请加入Investalks特别群组。在小组里，会员可以无限询问有关课堂上的问题，主讲人或助教将会给课程后的跟进。


Investalks Academy的课程教导方式：

高楼大厦由地起。笔者一路来都（个人）认为，最原始的学问就是最稳固的基础。所以，笔者的课程，将不需利用付费系统，而是以最原始和简单化的方式去做基本面功课。
**最原始的方式代表以最基本的季报和年报取出资料来做功课。
**简单化的方式代表以平民化的会计数字去解读数字资料。了解自己认为所需要的数字资料就好。

一旦把最基础的基本面知识都掌握起来，投资者就可以再配合系统化（付费或免费）的资料增快做功课的时间，也有能力检查和纠正系统化有可能出现的错误。


Investalks Academy的课程地点：

槟城先做试跑。**试跑期间属于有限期的特价**
如果效应好，过后也会在吉隆坡和柔佛开办。如果允许，笔者也希望可以为东马的投资者出一份力。


笔者的感言：

笔者的基本面投资方式不一定是完美和最好的。但是最少可以让自己学习一套可以在股市赚钱的生存之道。希望笔者的一套学问，最底线可以帮助大家避免基本面不好的投资对象。通过基本面的知识，也可以把投资的风险降低。能够把坏的因素抛离，所得到好投资的几率自然会变得更高。

笔者认为，基本面的知识，是比容易掌握的学问，尤其是给予有不错教育程度的投资者。主要的障碍通常会出现在时间上和恒心的因素。只要能够克服两者，基本面的知识其实不难掌握。

笔者开始学习基本面的时期，很多时间都投入在Investalks论坛里。论坛也渐渐成为了笔者学习的其中一个重要通道。要管理一个论坛，可以讲是不简单的一回事。当人多了，是非和会员的不满就会增加。当股市在高峰和挑战性的时期，分享也明显少了，因为要找低风险和高回酬的股就都不容易了。为了回报论坛成为笔记的学习通道和继续笔者的基本面课程，笔者希望可以通过这次的合作为各方带来互利互助的效应。

希望大家多多支持和包容。谢谢！


有兴趣报名者，可以通过以下的连接跟进。
http://www.investalks.com/forum/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=32167&fromuid=7544

【基本面+长期投资】| FA + Long Term Investment

何为股票长期投资？此句子看来很普通。但是却让大部分人带来不一样的意思。

笔者曾经说过，如果以基本面长期投资在股市里，都是包赚的。世上真的有包赚的东西吗？笔者的答案还是“有”，如果你懂得如何操作。

给予笔者，长期投资的意思是一直把自己投入在股市里。买股票来收或卖出股票收现金，都是属于一种投资状态。我们不一定要一直买入或持有才算是一种投资。在适当的时候，暂时把资金抽出也是一种所谓的投资。

状况1：买入或持有
在股市情绪大好时期，如果手中的股票增值，投资就算赚了。相反，如果当时手持大量现金，就会导致少赚的情况。间接中就是亏掉了大好时机。时机也就是时间，亏了时间就代表亏了钱。（什么歪理？)

状况2：把资金抽出
在股市情绪大坏时期，如果当时手持大量股票，资金面临亏损的情况就难以想象了。可以讲是亏了本钱又亏了时间（要浪费时间赚回来）。相反，当时手中持有的现金，就成功避免不必要的亏损和可以以更便宜的价钱买入，也就是间接中所谓的赚到了。（又来个歪理？)

不管什么投资，风险是避免不了的。但是，所谓的风险都是可以减低。在股票投资里，懂得做公司的基本面资料，就是一环把风险降低的学问。通过基本面的了解，我们可以避免高风险或者没把握的投资，只选择风险低和有把握得到高回酬的投资。

没把握的投资，跟赌博没两样。长期下去，要包赚真的是必须是个非常幸运的人。
有把握的投资，成功的机率就来得比错误机率高。以适当的操作长期投资下去，是不是觉得真的包赚那样？

所谓有把握的投资，都是有付才有得。要在股市里不靠他人而长期生存（稳赚），就必须懂得基本面的知识。一间预测能长期成长的公司，代表其价值会长期增值。一间会长期增值的公司，不管外围的影响有多大，把时间拉长，其价值自然会恢复到应有水平。所以，时间也是价值的最好衡量工具。

以上有谈到两种的投资方式：内在价值观（长期不理会外围的因素）和预测市场方向（状况1&2）。两者都能赚钱，只是以不一样的操作手法。但是，基本面预测和市场方向预测都是会有错误的机率出现。只要懂得做纠正，少赚或少亏都是一种控制风险的方式。价值观投资都是属于比较长期，而预测市场都是比较属于短中期。

如果事情的发生跟预测中开始出现矛盾，就必须回顾基本面来做出改变。所谓的基本面长期投资，就是要以基本面来看特你长期投资的个案。而不是所谓的长期持有和完全不卖的投资。

基本面就是一把尺，让你懂得去衡量一个东西的好坏。

所以，只要把基本面的知识打稳，错误出现的机率自然就会变低。投资10个股，只要有7个赚到不错的回酬，就可以算很不错了。只有这样，你才能达到稳赚不赔的长期投资。

股票市场都是一种钱财游戏。如果你是一位不能肯定长期投资能够包赚钱的投资者，笔者不觉得你适合留在股市里一直打转。毕竟单以运气来玩这种游戏，灾难的降临是迟早会发生的事情。


What is long term investment? The term look simple but a lot of people may think it differently.

In a previous post, I have mentioned that it is a surely profitable investment if you take it with fundamental in long run. Is that truth? I will still said "yes" if you know how to work on it.

What is the meaning of long term investment? For me, it is just as simple as you continue stay in the stock market. Cash in or cash out from stock, both are one of the investment acts. Investment doesn't mean you must always stay in the market with stock on hand. At time, keep cash is also one of the investment strategy.

Scenario 1: Buy in or holding stock
When market sentimental is good, any buy or stock on hand is a good decision to make good profit. On the other hand, you will not gain any if you holding pile of cash. In this case, you have missed the good time to invest. Time is money, it mean you are making loss indirectly. Right?

Scenario 2: Cash out and stay away
When market sentimental is bad, you will unable to imagine the loss if you holding a lot of stock. In this case, your investment capital is eroded and you need spend more time to get it back. Whereby, if you are in cash rich position, you are not only avoided the loss but gain a good timing to buy lower. Agree?

We are unable to run away from risk for any kind of investment. But, the investment risk can be minimize. In stock market, fundamental analysis is a kind of knowledge that allow you to minimize the risk. Through FA, we will able to understand and avoid the investment which is high risk and less confident. FA will direct you to the investment that you are confident and foresee a good investment return in future.

If you make an investment that you are not confident at all, you are no different from gambling. You will never able to make a surely profitable investment in long run unless you are a super lucky person. If you have a solid confident in your investment, the chances to be succeed will definitely in better position. By doing this in long run, do you think it will be a surely profitable investment?

Confident is build up by effort. If you would like to make profitable investment by yourself in long term, you should have proper FA knowledge. If you foresee a company will continue grow, it mean its intrinsic value will grow in time. Regardless how bad is the external factor, it will goes back to its reasonable value in longer term. Time is the best tool to judge the value of a company.

Both intrinsic value investment (ignore external factor in long run) and time the market (scenario 1 & 2) will also make money but in different methods. Our prediction through fundamental analysis or time the market will some time goes wrong. As long as we rectify it, lesser profit or lower loss are good to take as part of the consequence from risk management. Intrinsic value investment is more to long term whereby time the market is more to short to mid term.

If something happen against your prediction, a fundamental revisit is a must. The meaning of FA for a long term investment is to assist you to measure its fundamental from time to time. Long term investment does not ask you keep it forever by ignore things which are getting worse.

Fundamental analysis is a measurement tool for you to judge the investment whether still in good position.

Thus, if you able to build up your FA skill well, it will definitely help you to reduce mistake and investment risk. At least 7 out of 10 stocks you buy are making good profit, it will be good enough. If you able to do in proper manner, I don't see any reason it can't be a surely profitable investment in long run.

Stock market is a money game. As an investor, if you think you can't make a surely profitable investment in long run, I don't see any reason why you should still stay in stock market. It will be a disaster for an investor who is playing a game just purely depend on the luck.

【版权】| Copyright

昨晚在某些投资网站溜溜，既然看到笔者的几个作品被仿制又没交代来源。其中一个贴已在此部落格分享，其他都是只在一个论坛活动的聚会而分享。版权，必须被尊重，尤其是已经被作者写出来，而不是单凭口讲的。作品已经公布在作者的部落格，如果被仿制来转分享，必须放入原作人的名。给予那些连笔者都没公开的作品也拿来仿制，简直是太过分！笔者将不在此指名道姓，但希望此人看到此贴后会反省。

无意中也看到某些投资者对基本面+长期投资+包赚的不认同看法。其实，所谓的长期投资很多都被人误解。给予一位有经验和基本分析能力的人，也许他们会有跟我有同样的思维。关于此话题，笔者过后再跟大家谈谈。

I have visited some investment related websites on yesterday night. Surprisingly, I found some of my articles have been copied yet do not review the source of writer name. One of the article has been posted in this blog and others were shared in a talk organized by a investment forum. Copyright must be respected especially in written form (compared to verbal talk). For the article already posted in blog is well come to share again but it need to mention the source of writer name or link. For those articles which never post by writer but posted by 3rd party, I shall say he/she is having a very bad manner in sharing. I will not mention the name but hope this person will realize what need to do after read this post.

At the same time, I found some investors are still unsure the meaning of (fundamental analysis + long term investment + surely profit). The term and meaning of long term investment is mostly been twisted by public. For an investor which are experienced and coupled with FA skill, he/she should has the same thinking alike me. I will discuss more on this topic in next post.