这次的差劲业绩（EPS 0.18sen）主要原因是SEB，子公司（汽油业）所导致。
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1890165
SUCCESS拥有65%SEB的股份，Q42014的业绩亏损了大概九百万。季报讲解是因为其中一个工程的开销管理做得不好。
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1890157
SEB的营业额占了SUCCESS的三分之一。所以，他对公司所带来的影响是不可忽略的。
在汽油价还没大跌前，汽油业未来的前景其实还不错的。现在连PETRONAS都大事公布会继续减少开支。所以，接下来的前景只可以讲是黑暗模糊。
除此之外，近期也要网友问到我关于SUCCESS的看法。经过我去年重新深入研究公司的帐目，我就以以下的回答讲解公司的问题：
SUCCESS看来其实很不错，但是投资起来也不太放心。
1）收债能力差和顾客的还债期限长。加上常常出现烂债。
- 这些烂债就如盈利的寄生物，往往所赚的都会被蛀掉部分。
2）现金流差，常出现负数。主要原因是长期的CAPEX都很高。
- 就如身体所所制造的血液，不能补回所流失的血。长期维持这样，体质肯定越来越差。如果没有办法改变，也许进ICU的时期，会跟股东们讨血来救命。
SUCCESS便宜也许是以上的原因。
这个问题也许是管理层以太过积极的方式把公司快速扩张而导致帐目达不到一个好的平衡点，也或许是这个行业原本的本质问题。
接下来的时间，如果公司能够把以上的问题解决和交出漂亮的帐目数据，也是就是他的爆发期。要不然，还是跟这位只有外在美的美眉说声道别话吧。外面的世界，美眉多得是，多到搭讪不完。
公司应该很难在1-2年内把帐目做好（如果真的能做得到）。加上汽油业的前景不明朗，个人认为，要以严格的价值投资法去投资，SUCCESS的股价要振作起来真的难如登天！
SUCCESS reported a bad quarter result with eps 0.18sen. This is due to its O&G subsidiary reported a huge loss.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1890165
SEB is a 65% owned subsidiary for SUCCESS and its Q42014 has reported about RM9mil loss. From the performance review, it mentioned due to cost over-run on a particular project.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1890157
SEB's revenue is 1/3 of total revenue of SUCCESS. Thus, its effect must not be ignored. O&G business still doing fine before a quick and big fall in crude oil price. Furthermore, PETRONAS has announced to cut its CAPEX and this will definitely bring bad influence to O&G business very soon.
Recently, there is question arise and seek my advice on SUCCESS. Below is my feedback which to include my view after I have done another round of further research on the company's accounting figures.
SUCCESS seems cheap and attractive, but it come with some cautions as well.
1) Receivable is increasing and the customer payment credit term is too long. Impairment on receivable is happened year by year.
- This will act like a parasite to the company and erode its profit every year.
2) Free Cash Flow is negative for almost every year. The main reason is due to high CAPEX.
- It seem like the blood generation in the body is unable to recover its bleeding. In long run, the body will getting weak. If the condition unable to recover in proper manner, there is a chance for entering in to ICU condition and it will ask blood donation from you (shareholder).
With above reasons, maybe it is why SUCCESS is offering in cheap PE valuation.
The problem may cause by the company expansion is too aggressive and cause it unable to stabilize its balance sheet yet or its is a natural of the company business.
I think big funds will only appreciate the share price if management able to rectify the problems, Else, it will only look nice in the outlook, but not inner side.
It is a challenge for company to rectify the accounting worries as mentioned above (if it really can happen). Couple with bad prospect in O&G field, and with strict fundamental selection criteria to invest, I guess it will be very difficult for the company share price to fly.
Saturday, 28 February 2015
Monday, 26 January 2015
【新闻|News】7207 SUCCESS 前風變壓器
纯属跟踪公司的消息。
News tracking for the company only.
Success still promising better days ahead
2014-10-19 10:57
受到LED领域前景一片光明带动，加上交出更好的业绩表现，其股价上个月开始走高。
KUALA LUMPUR: Success Transformer Corp Bhd (STC) ( Financial Dashboard), a manufacturer of transformers and industrial lighting products, expects net profit and revenue to improve in financial year ending Dec 31, 2014 (FY14) and FY15, driven by its light emitting diode (LED) lighting segment.
For the first six months ended June 30, 2014, STC’s net profit rose 22.7% to RM16.7 million from RM13.61 million, while revenue grew 27.8% to RM189.64 million from RM148.46 million a year ago.
The transformer and industrial lighting segment contributed RM126.12 million or 66.5% to the group’s revenue, while the process equipment segment accounted for the remaining 33.5%.
Its managing director (MD) Tan Ah Ping expects similar contribution from both segments moving forward.
“We have our own research and development team and facilities in [LED] lighting since 2009, and since then our focus is on LED lighting products to cater to the commercial and industrial lighting markets’ needs,” he told The Edge Financial Daily in an email interview.
STC operates a production plant in Sungai Buloh, Selangor, which is running at 60% full capacity.
Tan said the LED lighting market has huge growth potential as more companies move to energy-efficient and eco-friendly sources of lighting.
The group expects contribution from LED lighting to total lighting sales to pick up from 30% currently, possibly overtaking that of its conventional lighting products.
Tan said STC’s one-stop lighting solution to customers — from the design stage to manufacturing and after-sales service — enables it to meet the expected stiff competition from local and foreign players.
“As for the transformer segment, we are expanding to more niche markets such as the information technology-related segment, marine segment and other industries that require our specialties in design consultancy,” he said.
Tan noted that transformers offer higher margins than lighting products as the former is custom-made while the latter is usually produced for the masses.
On July 9, STC’s 60%-owned subsidiary Ningbo Success Zhenye Luminaire LLC (NSZ) incorporated Shenyang Success Zhenye Luminaire LLC, subscribing two 60% in the latter for 300,000 yuan (RM156,000). This will provide NSZ with an opportunity to expand its business in the local market.
Tan deemed the contribution from China to be “significant” within these three years, but declined to give a number.
Thus far, STC has yet to penetrate the China consumer market although eight is the group’s major supplier in components. Nonetheless, it hopes to start selling some of its lighting products to China through NSZ.
For its first half of FY14, the local market contributed 79% to the group’s revenue, while the remaining 21% was derived from overseas sales to Singapore, other parts of Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.
On its process equipment segment, which is represented via its 65.26%-owned subsidiary Seremban Engineering Bhd (SEB) ( Financial Dashboard), Tan said SEB’s order book currently stands at RM90 million, which will keep the company busy for the next 12 months.
In terms of allocation of clientele, the oil and gas portion increased from just 10% last year to 60% this year, with the palm oil industry accounting for 25%.
Tan said the client contribution to SEB revenue varies, depending on the projects taken by the company. “We are [also] working towards tendering for the refinery and petrochemical integrated development project in Johor, but have yet to secure anything,” said SEB managing director Peter Wong.
Tan said STC will continue to seek mergers and acquisitions in related businesses to grow, although nothing has been confirmed.
Tan’s family vehicle Omega Attraction Sdn Bhd is the biggest shareholder of STC, with a 46.26% stake as at April 30 this year, its latest annual report showed. Bloomberg data showed the group has a free float of 30.6% on an issued base of 116.61 million shares.
STC’s share price had been trading below its net tangible asset (NTA) per share of RM2.13 and RM1.89 as at end-2013 and 2012 respectively, according to figures from its annual report. As at June 30, its NTA stood at RM2.25. Based on its closing price of RM1.74 last Friday and annualised FY14 earnings per share of about 28 sen, STC trades at an undemanding price-to-earnings ratio of 6.2 times.
This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on October 13, 2014.
投标海外工程计划乐观 前风变压器成长迅速
二零一四年十月二十六日 晚上七时十分
股价最近无预料从一年低点1.15令吉，飙高至2.03令吉的前风变压器有限公司（SUCCESS，7207，工业产品组），正投标肯尼亚、新加坡、澳洲和印尼的光二极管（LED）照明计划。
该股于上周五收盘时挂1.86令吉。
这间从事制造变压器与工业照明产品且作风低调的公司，有信心在其良好记录背景下，赢得肯尼亚价值600万至720万令吉的政府合约。
董事经理兼创办人陈玡宾表示：“除了肯尼亚的光二极管照明计划外，我们也投标新加坡、澳洲和印尼政府与私人领域的光二极管计划。”
“在肯尼亚，我对我们赢得这项工程相当乐观，因在过去5年，我们为从内罗华机场至市区的街道供应照明产品。”
这也是陈玡宾认为它不受来自飞利浦和其他业者激烈竞争影响的原因。
飞利浦于2012年与肯尼亚都市道路局合作，以确保首都内罗华的道路装置太阳能光二极管照明设备。这项计划是东非地区的首创。
陈玡宾说，前风变压器的客制化照明方案涵盖设计阶段至制造与售后服务，让它可与本土和海外业者竞争。其于双溪毛糯工厂的产品出口到超过40个国家，包括法国、澳洲、阿联酋、日本、韩国、印度、香港和新加坡。
“许多国家现已转为使用更环保和更节省能源的光二极管照明系统，这项产品将成为我们的一个庞大市场。”
前风变压器是透过旗下逾800个交易商和分销商，出售其变压器与照明产品，涉及高速公路计划和供应商业建筑、购物广场、仓库和工厂的照明。
基于该领域的迅速成长机会，该公司可能需要透过合并与收购扩充，以巩固其未来成长。
于1980年成立该公司的陈玡宾指出：“我们已针对并购与一些团体进行洽商，但目前仍然尚未有定案。由于光二极管市场非常庞大，我们未来将需要更多资金以扩充我们的业务。”
拜光二极管和明朗前景和前风变压器更强稳的财务表现所赐，该股上个月从之前被冷待逐渐转为受到关注，于9月25日冲上令吉的记录高点，惟走势较后回软。
陈玡宾强调，前风变压器董事与该股的不寻常活动无关。
消息称，机构基金已经从公开市场购入前风变压器股票，意味着看好这只被忽略与低估股票的上扬潜质，因后者持续以净有形资产值以下水平交易。
截至6月30日，其净有形资产值企于2.25令吉。基于该股最后挂价1.86令吉，和2014财政年常年化每股收益28仙，前风变压器只有约6倍本益比。该公司于同时期的净盈利从之前的1360万令吉提高到1670万令吉，而收益则增加27.8%至1亿8964万令吉。
陈玡宾预测，该公司2014和2015财政年度的收益与盈利将进一步提高，主要是来自旗下光二极管照明部门。
展望未来，陈玡宾说，前风变压器可能重估其资产与产业，并且派送红股或凭单以作为回馈忠诚股东及提升流通量，惟现阶段尚未对这些企业活动作出决定。
前风变压器是于2005年在大马交易所的第二交易板挂牌，并于2007年转升主要交易板上市。
在2008年9月，它获《福布斯亚洲》杂志评选为13家‘十亿令吉以下最佳公司’之一。
http://www.kwongwah.com.my/news/2014/10/26/81.html
前景带动股价 前风竞标3国LED工程
（吉隆坡18日讯）近期股价大涨的前风（SUCCESS，7207，主板工业产品股），证实在肯尼亚（Kenya）、新加坡、澳洲及印尼竞标LED照明工程。
News tracking for the company only.
Success still promising better days ahead
2014-10-19 10:57
受到LED领域前景一片光明带动，加上交出更好的业绩表现，其股价上个月开始走高。
KUALA LUMPUR: Success Transformer Corp Bhd (STC) ( Financial Dashboard), a manufacturer of transformers and industrial lighting products, expects net profit and revenue to improve in financial year ending Dec 31, 2014 (FY14) and FY15, driven by its light emitting diode (LED) lighting segment.
For the first six months ended June 30, 2014, STC’s net profit rose 22.7% to RM16.7 million from RM13.61 million, while revenue grew 27.8% to RM189.64 million from RM148.46 million a year ago.
The transformer and industrial lighting segment contributed RM126.12 million or 66.5% to the group’s revenue, while the process equipment segment accounted for the remaining 33.5%.
Its managing director (MD) Tan Ah Ping expects similar contribution from both segments moving forward.
“We have our own research and development team and facilities in [LED] lighting since 2009, and since then our focus is on LED lighting products to cater to the commercial and industrial lighting markets’ needs,” he told The Edge Financial Daily in an email interview.
STC operates a production plant in Sungai Buloh, Selangor, which is running at 60% full capacity.
Tan said the LED lighting market has huge growth potential as more companies move to energy-efficient and eco-friendly sources of lighting.
The group expects contribution from LED lighting to total lighting sales to pick up from 30% currently, possibly overtaking that of its conventional lighting products.
Tan said STC’s one-stop lighting solution to customers — from the design stage to manufacturing and after-sales service — enables it to meet the expected stiff competition from local and foreign players.
“As for the transformer segment, we are expanding to more niche markets such as the information technology-related segment, marine segment and other industries that require our specialties in design consultancy,” he said.
Tan noted that transformers offer higher margins than lighting products as the former is custom-made while the latter is usually produced for the masses.
On July 9, STC’s 60%-owned subsidiary Ningbo Success Zhenye Luminaire LLC (NSZ) incorporated Shenyang Success Zhenye Luminaire LLC, subscribing two 60% in the latter for 300,000 yuan (RM156,000). This will provide NSZ with an opportunity to expand its business in the local market.
Tan deemed the contribution from China to be “significant” within these three years, but declined to give a number.
Thus far, STC has yet to penetrate the China consumer market although eight is the group’s major supplier in components. Nonetheless, it hopes to start selling some of its lighting products to China through NSZ.
For its first half of FY14, the local market contributed 79% to the group’s revenue, while the remaining 21% was derived from overseas sales to Singapore, other parts of Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.
On its process equipment segment, which is represented via its 65.26%-owned subsidiary Seremban Engineering Bhd (SEB) ( Financial Dashboard), Tan said SEB’s order book currently stands at RM90 million, which will keep the company busy for the next 12 months.
In terms of allocation of clientele, the oil and gas portion increased from just 10% last year to 60% this year, with the palm oil industry accounting for 25%.
Tan said the client contribution to SEB revenue varies, depending on the projects taken by the company. “We are [also] working towards tendering for the refinery and petrochemical integrated development project in Johor, but have yet to secure anything,” said SEB managing director Peter Wong.
Tan said STC will continue to seek mergers and acquisitions in related businesses to grow, although nothing has been confirmed.
Tan’s family vehicle Omega Attraction Sdn Bhd is the biggest shareholder of STC, with a 46.26% stake as at April 30 this year, its latest annual report showed. Bloomberg data showed the group has a free float of 30.6% on an issued base of 116.61 million shares.
STC’s share price had been trading below its net tangible asset (NTA) per share of RM2.13 and RM1.89 as at end-2013 and 2012 respectively, according to figures from its annual report. As at June 30, its NTA stood at RM2.25. Based on its closing price of RM1.74 last Friday and annualised FY14 earnings per share of about 28 sen, STC trades at an undemanding price-to-earnings ratio of 6.2 times.
This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on October 13, 2014.
投标海外工程计划乐观 前风变压器成长迅速
二零一四年十月二十六日 晚上七时十分
股价最近无预料从一年低点1.15令吉，飙高至2.03令吉的前风变压器有限公司（SUCCESS，7207，工业产品组），正投标肯尼亚、新加坡、澳洲和印尼的光二极管（LED）照明计划。
该股于上周五收盘时挂1.86令吉。
这间从事制造变压器与工业照明产品且作风低调的公司，有信心在其良好记录背景下，赢得肯尼亚价值600万至720万令吉的政府合约。
董事经理兼创办人陈玡宾表示：“除了肯尼亚的光二极管照明计划外，我们也投标新加坡、澳洲和印尼政府与私人领域的光二极管计划。”
“在肯尼亚，我对我们赢得这项工程相当乐观，因在过去5年，我们为从内罗华机场至市区的街道供应照明产品。”
这也是陈玡宾认为它不受来自飞利浦和其他业者激烈竞争影响的原因。
飞利浦于2012年与肯尼亚都市道路局合作，以确保首都内罗华的道路装置太阳能光二极管照明设备。这项计划是东非地区的首创。
陈玡宾说，前风变压器的客制化照明方案涵盖设计阶段至制造与售后服务，让它可与本土和海外业者竞争。其于双溪毛糯工厂的产品出口到超过40个国家，包括法国、澳洲、阿联酋、日本、韩国、印度、香港和新加坡。
“许多国家现已转为使用更环保和更节省能源的光二极管照明系统，这项产品将成为我们的一个庞大市场。”
前风变压器是透过旗下逾800个交易商和分销商，出售其变压器与照明产品，涉及高速公路计划和供应商业建筑、购物广场、仓库和工厂的照明。
基于该领域的迅速成长机会，该公司可能需要透过合并与收购扩充，以巩固其未来成长。
于1980年成立该公司的陈玡宾指出：“我们已针对并购与一些团体进行洽商，但目前仍然尚未有定案。由于光二极管市场非常庞大，我们未来将需要更多资金以扩充我们的业务。”
拜光二极管和明朗前景和前风变压器更强稳的财务表现所赐，该股上个月从之前被冷待逐渐转为受到关注，于9月25日冲上令吉的记录高点，惟走势较后回软。
陈玡宾强调，前风变压器董事与该股的不寻常活动无关。
消息称，机构基金已经从公开市场购入前风变压器股票，意味着看好这只被忽略与低估股票的上扬潜质，因后者持续以净有形资产值以下水平交易。
截至6月30日，其净有形资产值企于2.25令吉。基于该股最后挂价1.86令吉，和2014财政年常年化每股收益28仙，前风变压器只有约6倍本益比。该公司于同时期的净盈利从之前的1360万令吉提高到1670万令吉，而收益则增加27.8%至1亿8964万令吉。
陈玡宾预测，该公司2014和2015财政年度的收益与盈利将进一步提高，主要是来自旗下光二极管照明部门。
展望未来，陈玡宾说，前风变压器可能重估其资产与产业，并且派送红股或凭单以作为回馈忠诚股东及提升流通量，惟现阶段尚未对这些企业活动作出决定。
前风变压器是于2005年在大马交易所的第二交易板挂牌，并于2007年转升主要交易板上市。
在2008年9月，它获《福布斯亚洲》杂志评选为13家‘十亿令吉以下最佳公司’之一。
http://www.kwongwah.com.my/news/2014/10/26/81.html
前景带动股价 前风竞标3国LED工程
（吉隆坡18日讯）近期股价大涨的前风（SUCCESS，7207，主板工业产品股），证实在肯尼亚（Kenya）、新加坡、澳洲及印尼竞标LED照明工程。
根据财经周刊《The Edge》报道，前风创办人兼董事经理陈玡傧表示：“基于以往纪录良好，公司有信心能够在肯尼亚获得价值600万至750万令吉的政府合约。”
公司目前竞标着的合约，包括肯尼亚的LED照明工程，新加坡、澳洲和印尼政府和私人领域的LED工程。
针对市场潜能，他指出，很多国家都已转至使用有利生态环境和节省能源的LED照明系统，所以，这对公司而言，是一个相当庞大的市场。
由于该领域拥有很大的发展潜能，所以公司必须通过并购活动扩展业务和加速成长。
“我们正与一些公司洽谈并购活动，但目前还不确定。由于LED市场庞大，所以，我们需要更多资金拓展业务。”
这家低调的大马公司，主要业务是生产变压器和工业照明产品。
股价创新高
同时，更在9月25日冲上2.03令吉的历史新高。
消息人士指，机构基金已在公开市场收购公司股票，因看好股价成长潜能高。http://www.nanyang.com/node/656740?tid=462
Sunday, 25 January 2015
Participation Analysis 【参与率分析】 @ 22-Jan-14
最近外资在去年12月就开始积极外流。本地基金是主要的承接人。散户就漂浮地买卖。
Foreign investor selling aggressively since Dec'14. Local Institution is the main party to adsorb most of the capital outflow. Retail investor is being net buyer and net seller inconstantly from time to time.
这次介绍大家看散户跟随指数所做出的买卖热度。前阵子的大调整，散户的交易买卖曾经达到了一个低潮，也就是当天的买/卖股值各自既然不到2亿。离上一次的低潮最少是一年前以上的事。但是，22-Jan-15的当天的买/卖股值各自开始热了，也是达到5亿以上。过去3个月，只发生了3次。如果热度保持在这个水平或以上，建议大家要更加谨慎对待手上持有的股票。
Introduce a new charting to observe the "heat" through the Local Retails trading (buy/sell) activities. From the recently market adjustment, found the daily buy/sell trade value is less than RM200mil each. It is a low point for at least more than 1 year ago. But, there is a bit "heat" observed from traded value done on 22-Jan-15, which is exceeded RM500mil. This only happened 3 times in the past 3 months. If the heat remain at this level or higher, I think all of us have to be more extra caution on your holding shares.
LR - Local Retails 【散户】
LI - Local Institution 【本地基金】
F - Foreign 【外资】
Foreign investor selling aggressively since Dec'14. Local Institution is the main party to adsorb most of the capital outflow. Retail investor is being net buyer and net seller inconstantly from time to time.
这次介绍大家看散户跟随指数所做出的买卖热度。前阵子的大调整，散户的交易买卖曾经达到了一个低潮，也就是当天的买/卖股值各自既然不到2亿。离上一次的低潮最少是一年前以上的事。但是，22-Jan-15的当天的买/卖股值各自开始热了，也是达到5亿以上。过去3个月，只发生了3次。如果热度保持在这个水平或以上，建议大家要更加谨慎对待手上持有的股票。
Introduce a new charting to observe the "heat" through the Local Retails trading (buy/sell) activities. From the recently market adjustment, found the daily buy/sell trade value is less than RM200mil each. It is a low point for at least more than 1 year ago. But, there is a bit "heat" observed from traded value done on 22-Jan-15, which is exceeded RM500mil. This only happened 3 times in the past 3 months. If the heat remain at this level or higher, I think all of us have to be more extra caution on your holding shares.
LR - Local Retails 【散户】
LI - Local Institution 【本地基金】
F - Foreign 【外资】
Monday, 1 December 2014
Participation Analysis 【参与率分析】 @ 1-Dec-14
再次证明，散户还是专长在下跌时期做买家。
28-Nov-14，散户净买入RM62.7mil股值。属于今年的第二历史新高。（隔天，也就是今天，指数大跌42点。）
今年散户净买入最高纪录是RM128mil，在不久前的10-Oct-14。当时指数跌-20.85。
**青色箭头代表散户卖出。其他属于买进。**
Again, it proved local retails are the BUY expert in falling market.
28-Nov-14, Local Retails are the buyer with RM62,7mil net traded value. It is the 2nd highest in this year. (The next day, today, index plunged @ -42.)
The highest traded net value, RM128mil is on 10-Oct-14, which is not long ago and KLCI index dropped @ -20.85.
**Green arrow represent SELL by local retails. The rest are BUY in.**
28-Nov-14，散户净买入RM62.7mil股值。属于今年的第二历史新高。（隔天，也就是今天，指数大跌42点。）
今年散户净买入最高纪录是RM128mil，在不久前的10-Oct-14。当时指数跌-20.85。
**青色箭头代表散户卖出。其他属于买进。**
Again, it proved local retails are the BUY expert in falling market.
28-Nov-14, Local Retails are the buyer with RM62,7mil net traded value. It is the 2nd highest in this year. (The next day, today, index plunged @ -42.)
The highest traded net value, RM128mil is on 10-Oct-14, which is not long ago and KLCI index dropped @ -20.85.
**Green arrow represent SELL by local retails. The rest are BUY in.**
Thursday, 23 October 2014
Participation Analysis 【参与率分析】 @ 21-Oct-14
LR - Local Retails 【散户】
LI - Local Institution 【本地基金】
F - Foreign 【外资】
Friday, 3 October 2014
[0090] ELSOFT
前阵子投资MMSV的决定，让我得到非常丰富的回酬。除了有幸找到如此非凡的投资选择，我也很感激MMSV所有的高层和员工。因为他们的付出，才能得来非凡的业绩。非凡的业绩是主要让股价高飞的因素。
当我研究MMSV的期间，我也开始注意到他们的其中一个竞争对手，ELSOFT。所以也开始慢慢对他开始了一些研究资料，然后也放入我的投资雷达里。趁着MMSV大起期间，我也开始了套利活动，再把部分的资金分散在ELSOFT此股。
Let me slowly analyze why I would choose ELSOFT
as it seem expensive in very surface observation, but in fact is a very attractive
value investment option. This analysis, we should focus more on thinking type, instead
of just a mathematical analysis. We need to image on the future business trends
and prospects for the company.
接下来就让我慢慢分析为何我会选择表面上看来不便宜，但事实上属于非常吸引的价值投资选择。此分析，比较属于思考型，数字分析为次要。大家要以生意的趋势和公司未来的前景去看待。
My recent investment decision on MMSV has rewarded with a handsome profit. In addition fortunate to find such an extraordinary investment choice, I am also very grateful to all MMSV executives and staff. This is because they paid a great effort to get an extraordinary performance for the company. Extraordinary performance is the main factor to make the stock price soar.
When I studied MMSV, I also began to notice and slowly do some of the research in one of their competitors, ELSOFT and then put it in my investment radar. Taking advantage on MMSV big hike moment, I also started arbitrage activity, and then some of the funds are dispersed in ELSOFT.
公司背景 | Company Background
ELSOFT部分与LED有关联的生意，就是MMSV正在做着的业务。公司也开始把业务分散在医疗和汽车领域。
LED related business is one of
the business segments for ELSOT, in which MMSV is doing it right now. Company
has started to expand their business territory to medical and automotive
fields.
》参考资料1 |
Source 1：
ELSOFT科研是一家以槟城为基地的公司，它的业务涉足测试及烧录系统（test
and burn-in systems）和特定应用程式嵌入系统（application-specific embedded systems）的研究，设计及发展活动。
该公司主要是为半导体，光电（即液晶电视，影像感应器和汽车灯饰）和自动化领域提供设计，确证以及生产测试方案。其主要客户包括安华高（Avago），飞利浦（Philips），欧司朗（Osram），英德科技（Intotest），建兴（Lite-On）和科锐（Cree）。
》参考资料2|
Source 2：
以下RHB提供了有关该公司的背景的综合信息。
Below RHB research has provided
comprehensive information regarding the company background.
》更多资料 |
More Information：
每季业绩| Quarterly Results
近期Q2的报告，公司创造了历史新高的业绩。接下来的Q3，预测业绩应该不会比输给Q2，毕竟年尾都是生产商销售的高峰，所以需要提早买入机械和组件来提升生产线。Q4，也许会属于平静期，除非公司有新业务的明显贡献。
In recent Q2 report, company
managed to break it historical high in profit. In coming next Q3, expect its
result will be as good as Q2 since year end will be a shopping sentimental
period. Thus, most of the industrial will buy in machine, equipment and
components to increase their production capacity. In Q4, expect it will return
to calm period, unless there is significant contribution from its new business
segments.
每年业绩 | Yearly Results
》高达40%的非凡盈利率。
》净现金公司。 （现金= RM24.33mil 对比 总负债=RM10.75mil）
》近期的存货，应收帐，应付帐，一一提高。都是生意开始有明显加强的现象。
》经过过去几年的积极投资活动，加上经营活动带来的盈利，现金流会慢慢变得更加吸引。
》一目了然，ELSOFT的财政状况属于非常健康。比较深入的检查就免做了。
》Up to 40% of the extraordinary
profit margin.
》A net cash company. (Cash =
RM24.33mil compare total liabilities = RM10.75mil)
》The recent inventory, accounts
receivable, accounts payable, all are in increasing trends. All of these signs
are showing the business momentum is getting better and better.
》Over the past few years
actively in investing activities and coupled with earnings from operating
activities, the cash flow will slowly become more attractive.
》At a glance, ELSOFT financial
situation are very healthy. Further check in balance sheet is not necessary.
分部业绩| Segment Results
》稳健成长。加上新业务又会带来怎样的变化？
》Steady growth. The new business
segments will bring what kind of changes?
股本变动及派息纪录 | Capital Change & Dividend History
》每年稳定地派息。但是还没有给红股的记录？
》The annual dividend payment is
consistent. But no bonus shares issue in record?
三十大股东 | Top 30 Shareholders
》三十大股东都是以个人名义而占有。为何没有基金的参与？接下来的分析将会有答案。
》Top 30 shareholders are as an
individual in possession. Why no funds participate in it? The following
analysis will have the answer.
公司展望 | Company’s Prospect
》23-Nov-13 Elsoft diversifies product base
ELSOFT
Research Bhd, a light-emitting diode (LED) test equipment maker, will design
and develop embedded systems for medical device and automotive companies next
year to broaden its revenue base and to mitigate the impact of the volatile LED
market.
An embedded system is a computer
system with a dedicated function within a larger mechanical or electrical
system, often with real-time computing constraints.
It is embedded as part of a complete
device, often including hardware and mechanical parts.
Embedded systems contain
processing cores that are either micro-controllers, or digital signal
processors, controlling many devices in common use today.
Tan says the group’s new RM12mil
facility, which was financed internally, will start operations early next year
and will be used for developing the embedded systems and the new range of LED
test equipment.
》2-Dec-13 开发新系统至医疗及汽车业 Elsoft扩大收入基础
他说，公司目前在国内与多家本地及外国的医疗设备和汽车公司洽谈合作设计和开发自己的设备和仪器的嵌入式系统。
陈氏称:“我们预料将于明年初与一间医疗设备达致协议，以便于明年开始安装嵌入式系统。”
汽车市场是一个增长的行业，这是由于板卡上的安全功能，汽车远程信息处理和电动汽车的需求大增所致。
》12-May-14 Interview: Elsoft sees big boost from medical device
segment
买入点 | Buy Points
1. 公司拥有非凡的盈利表，成长率，还有接下来也很亮眼的新业务。
2. LED核心业务，属于其中一个大马经济转型的计划，加上工业的需求而继续看好。医疗及汽车的新业务，将会把公司的业绩推上去另一个高峰。这个新行业的盈利，将会是一个以（销售）量来打造的收入。
3. 医疗业务，得到MOH（卫生部）的支持为出发点。也是大马经济转型计划里的其中一环。其中一个产品将会供应给洗肾仪器，也是可以在家用型的仪器。这个业务，先会打入政府医院。过后再介入私人医院和家庭用户。毕竟患病病者越来越多，现有政府医院的场所和设备已经供应不来了。
4. 汽车业务，对身边事物有比较敏感的人，也许会发现到，现在的汽车设备已经开始增加越来越多电子的功能了。所以，未来汽车业的趋势，将会朝向更多电子化的技术在汽车里。这些电子仪器，都需要用到嵌入式系统来控制电子仪器的系统。ELSOFT将会是这类产品的其中一个研发家。
5. 公司在今年的八月未公布股息政策为40%。
6. 公司在今年五月尾申请转主板。十月正式向BURSA申请。预测明年头会完成所有转主板的程序。
7. 公司有能力给红股。随时会公布红股来提高流动票。
8. 流动票低（大概7%），只有13千多张票。
9. 基金喜欢型的投资选择公司。
10. 管理层的素质，过去高成长率的记录，和拥有未来亮眼发展的条件。
1. The company has extraordinary
performance in earnings record, growth rate, followed by very bright new
business segments.
2. In LED segment (current core
business), is one of Malaysia's economic transformation program (ETP) and
coupled with the needs of industry and this business is continue to be
optimistic. For new medical and automotive business, the company's performance
is expected to push up another peak. This new industry's profitability will be
a volume game.
3. In medical segment, company
has the MOH (Ministry of Health) support as a starting point. It is also part
of ETP. One of the products will be supplied to the dialysis machine, and it is
also a home-based device. This business will first enter the government
hospitals and follow by the intervention of private hospitals and home users.
The patients are growing, yet the existing government hospital premises and
equipment are fully occupied.
4. In automotive segment, if you
are sensitive enough the changes, you might find that the current automotive
equipment has started adding more and more electronic function. Therefore, the
future trend of the automotive industry will be toward more electronic
technology in the car. These electronic devices are come with embedded systems that
need to control the electronic system of the devices. ELSOFT is one of the
player to develop such embedded systems.
5. The company has announced dividend
policy of 40% on end of August in this year.
6. The company has proposed application
to transfer into mainboard at the end of May this year. Company has officially submitted
the application to BURSA on end of August. By forecast, it is estimated to be
complete the listing by early of next year.
7. The company has the ability to
award shareholder with bonus shares. It is one of the methods to improve the
share liquidity by increase the floating share in the market.
8. Very low floating share (about
7%) which is about 13mil shares.
9. The kind of company which are
fund managers’ favourite.
10. Impressive management quality,
high growth rates recorded in the past, and have a dazzling future development prospect.
忧虑点 | Weak Points
1. 市场的不稳定性，随时会迎来大调整，而导致公司的股价跟随调整。
2. 新业务的开发不成功或贡献不大。
3. 盈利的增长跟随不上现有的股价估值。
1. Market sentimental is unstable
may lead to any market correction in any time, and company share price may
follow to fall.
2. New business segments are not
successful or insignificant contribution to company earning.
3. Probability is unable to catch
up to current high valuation of the share price.
结论 | Summary
ELSOFT表面上看来不便宜。但是如果投资者有深入对他研究，再加上未来不错的发展前景，其实现在买入来收都不属于贵。好的东西，价值会变得越来越贵。当事实发生在你眼前，他反而会变得比以前更贵。投资看未来，买股看价值。虽然笔者错过了早期更便宜的股价，但是觉得现有的股价，还是很值得投资。
以现在的股价，预测不多散户敢于在这个水平进场。因为大部分的散户都是把股价放在眼里的最前线和属于后知后觉的一群投资者。
还有一个重点，大型基金是不能买入创业板的公司（除了特殊情况）。基金也会对拥有发展前景亮眼的公司爱不释手。
以下是笔者预测过后将会发生在投资字典里的隐形数学公式：
》公布股息政策 +
转去主板
+ 业绩增长
+ 亮眼业务发展前景
= 吸引基金的参与。
》吸引基金参与的附带条件 = 分发红股来增加流动票。
尝试再去思考，再想象。。。如果未来每季的平均EPS有4sen，5sen，或更高，以现在的股价，到底值不值得比基金早一步先买入来收藏？
Apparently, ELSOFT seem not cheap. But if investors have
in-depth research on this company, coupled with good future prospects, in fact,
it is worth to buy in and keep. A good instrument, it will become more
expensive by time. If you wait until the facts occurred in front of you, it
will become more expensive than ever. Investment on the future, buy at the
value. Although I missed the earlier cheaper price, but that the current share
price, is worth to invest still.
At the current share price, retail investors most probably
not dare to buy in. This is because they are the type of investors who rarely
to look on future prospect and lagging in information reading.
Fund managers are not allowed to buy in ACE market listed
company (except under special circumstances). But fund manager love too much on
companies with great prospects.
Below is a special mathematical formula in my investing
dictionary:
》Dividend Policy + Mainboard Transfer + Growing Earnings +
Great Business Prospects = Attraction for Fund Manager Participation.
》Additional Condition to Attract Fund Manager to
Participate = Bonus Shares Issue to Increase Share’s Liquidity.
Try to think and imagine... If the future quarterly
average EPS is 4sen, 5sen, or higher, to the current share price, is it
worthwhile to step in ahead before fund manager join the party?
Sunday, 31 August 2014
MMSV: Q2FY2014
今年第二季的业绩比我保守的预测好很多。但是业绩公布的时机在大市情绪不稳定而导致股价不能有新突破。个人也猜测部分的投资者趁着好业绩来套利，毕竟大市真的很难看。
这次的业绩，我只想做个简单的分析。这类型的公司，当他们在做新产品，很多面的消费都会令到早期的成本提高。当产品完成研究，盈利率就会提高。当公司又得到大型的订单，就会是高盈利时期。
简单来讲，很多成本都在第一和第二季付出了。第二季盈利率的变化已经是一个很好的证明了。第三季的订单应该不会少过RM10mil。所以，笔者预测接下来第三季的业绩，很大可能会比第二季的业绩好。
如果预测是对的，全年EPS=5sen应该有机会做到。现在股价43sen，Forward PE=8.6。给予一间基本面非凡的小公司，又有股息给，个人觉得一点都不贵。
但是，大市现在又那么糟糕。没票的人，应该买吗？有票的人，应该套利吗？可能有部分的投资会先套利，等大市稳了才重新买入。但是，便宜货通常都是在恐惧里而产生。接了便宜货，会不会变得更便宜？不要问笔者，因为这是很个人的决定。这也是令到投资世界里变得更精彩！
This year's Q2 result performed much better than my conservative prediction. Unfortunately, the result is announced in wrong timing and the share price can't perform as per its result. From my observation, it seem like some investors are disposing share during good result announcement. Bad market sentimental may become another reason for this.
For this quarter result review, I would like to make a simple analysis. For this type of business company, the expenses will be high during its initial stage of R&D for a new product. Thus, it will cause the cost of sales to be higher. Once the development of a new product is completed, the profit margin will be higher. If company is going to deliver a big deal for its customer, the following profit will be explosive.
In brief, most of the cost will be adsorb during past Q1 and Q2. This can be proved as Q2 is showing a much better profit margin compared to Q1. In Q3, estimate the revenue will not less than RM10mil. Thus, I predict the coming Q3 profit will be better than Q2.
If my prediction is correct, whole year EPS should able to hit 5sen. Current share price at 43sen, which mean Forward PE is 8.6. For a small cap company with such great fundamental and couple with dividend payment, I think it is not expensive at all.
Anyhow, the market sentimental is quite bad now. For those is not a shareholder, should you buy? For those is existing shareholder, should you sell? There may be some investors thinking to sell right now and buy back when market become stable. Normally, the cheap offer will only happen in bad market sentimental. Will the cheap offer become cheaper? I have no answer as everyone is unique and decision may be vary. This is the reason why the stock market is so exciting place to stay in!
这次的业绩，我只想做个简单的分析。这类型的公司，当他们在做新产品，很多面的消费都会令到早期的成本提高。当产品完成研究，盈利率就会提高。当公司又得到大型的订单，就会是高盈利时期。
简单来讲，很多成本都在第一和第二季付出了。第二季盈利率的变化已经是一个很好的证明了。第三季的订单应该不会少过RM10mil。所以，笔者预测接下来第三季的业绩，很大可能会比第二季的业绩好。
如果预测是对的，全年EPS=5sen应该有机会做到。现在股价43sen，Forward PE=8.6。给予一间基本面非凡的小公司，又有股息给，个人觉得一点都不贵。
但是，大市现在又那么糟糕。没票的人，应该买吗？有票的人，应该套利吗？可能有部分的投资会先套利，等大市稳了才重新买入。但是，便宜货通常都是在恐惧里而产生。接了便宜货，会不会变得更便宜？不要问笔者，因为这是很个人的决定。这也是令到投资世界里变得更精彩！
This year's Q2 result performed much better than my conservative prediction. Unfortunately, the result is announced in wrong timing and the share price can't perform as per its result. From my observation, it seem like some investors are disposing share during good result announcement. Bad market sentimental may become another reason for this.
For this quarter result review, I would like to make a simple analysis. For this type of business company, the expenses will be high during its initial stage of R&D for a new product. Thus, it will cause the cost of sales to be higher. Once the development of a new product is completed, the profit margin will be higher. If company is going to deliver a big deal for its customer, the following profit will be explosive.
In brief, most of the cost will be adsorb during past Q1 and Q2. This can be proved as Q2 is showing a much better profit margin compared to Q1. In Q3, estimate the revenue will not less than RM10mil. Thus, I predict the coming Q3 profit will be better than Q2.
If my prediction is correct, whole year EPS should able to hit 5sen. Current share price at 43sen, which mean Forward PE is 8.6. For a small cap company with such great fundamental and couple with dividend payment, I think it is not expensive at all.
Anyhow, the market sentimental is quite bad now. For those is not a shareholder, should you buy? For those is existing shareholder, should you sell? There may be some investors thinking to sell right now and buy back when market become stable. Normally, the cheap offer will only happen in bad market sentimental. Will the cheap offer become cheaper? I have no answer as everyone is unique and decision may be vary. This is the reason why the stock market is so exciting place to stay in!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)