重点：
1）未入账销售达~21.8亿令吉。
2）2014年拥有总值32亿令吉的发展和预测能发售20亿令吉的增收。
3）积极减低净负债比率。【净负债比率 = （总负债 - 现金或现金同等）/ 总资产）】
4）一流的发展地段。
5）一等一的房地产发展商。
以上的（1）+（2），粗粗预测接下来的3-4年内，单单靠房屋销售的收入，平均每年的每股盈利最低可以到达15仙，应该会更高。
以上的（3），会带来多次的一次性的高收入。最近19-Mar-14的消息，公司卖出部分的地段给Eco World，已经肯定会带来大概每股12仙的盈利。预测陆续还会有惊喜！
以上的（4）+（5），是一个品牌保证的资产。也是证明管理层的付出。
在未来的20年，手上可发展的地段总价值超过800亿令吉！
这次，我不再看为投机了！这是一题短中期的投资。基本面和技术面看来，亏损有限，赚副无限！值得一试！
更清楚的资料，都可以从公司网站里的报告看。不要错过！
http://ir.chartnexus.com/tropicana/presentation.php
Focus Points:
1) Unbilled sales stand at RM2.18bil.
2) RM3.2bil new launches in FY14, target sales of above RM2bil.
3) Aggressively lower down the net gearing. [Net gearing = (Total Liabilities - Cash and equivalent) / Total Assets.]
4) First class landbanks in well locations.
5) A premium brand property developer.
For (1) + (2), estimation for the 3-4 years down the road, the properties sales are expected to contribute to company earning at least eps 15sen yearly (rough calculation), but expect to me more.
For (3), expect more contribution of one time deal income to company earning. The latest news on 19-Mar-14, the company sold part of its land to Eco World and expected to bring earning to company about eps 12sen. Expect more surprise will be coming!
For (4) + (5), the branding is the guarantee of great assets for the company. It also prove great effort from the management.
There is more than RM80bil of GDV for the coming 20 years to feed the company very well.
It is no longer a trading for me, but good investment for short to mid term. Fundamentally and technically view as limited downside, but offer great room for upside. Worth a try!
For details, company website provided a greater presentation material to explain it. Don't miss it!
http://ir.chartnexus.com/tropicana/presentation.php
Tuesday, 25 March 2014
Monday, 24 March 2014
Venture Capitalist
 | Definition of 'Venture Capitalist'
An investor who either provides capital to startup ventures or supports small companies that wish to expand but do not have access to public funding. Venture capitalists are willing to invest in such companies because they can earn a massive return on their investments if these companies are a success.
Venture capitalists also experience major losses when their picks fail, but these investors are typically wealthy enough that they can afford to take the risks associated with funding young, unproven companies that appear to have a great idea and a great management team. | |||||||
 | Investopedia explains 'Venture Capitalist'
Well-known venture capitalists include Jim Breyer, an early Facebook investor; Peter Fenton, an investor in Twitter; Peter Theil, the co-founder of PayPal and Facebook's first investor; and Jeremy Levine, the largest investor in Pinterest.
Venture capitalists look for a strong management team, a large potential market and a unique product or service with a strong competitive advantage. They also look for opportunities in industries that they are familiar with, and the chance to own a large percentage of the company so that they can influence its direction.
| |||||||
 | Related Video for 'Venture Capitalist' |
Other Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venture_capital
Sunday, 23 February 2014
[5401] TROP
我大概算吧了。。。
这个季的Performance Review那边，把卖资产和重估的元素除去。
税前盈利 = 117,900
总数票 = 1,107,281
EPS = 税后盈利 / 总数票 = (117,900 x 75%) / 1,107,281 = 7.99sen
其实我没研究的很深入，毕竟不打算收长期。个人也不大喜欢买产业股。
我喜欢的是此股跌的阿妈都不认得。 加上还没有进账的21.8亿令吉。应该很有肉吃。2014的业绩肯定继续看好。
单单看这个还没有进账的21.8亿令吉。
EPS = (21.8 x 20%) / 11.1 = RM0.393 （比如20%的盈利率）
如果3年内收完，平均一年可以得到RM0.131。
**Warrant 2019年才到期，暂时可以不管。**
买入平均价是RM1.365。投机的钱也用完在丽阳机构了。
Just take a simple review...
From the Performance Review of the recent quarter report announcement, by excluded its fair value adjustment on assets and land disposal.
PBT = 117,900
Nos = 1,107,281
EPS = PAT / Nos = (117,900 x 75%) / 1,107,281 = 7.99sen
I just done a simple study as I don't plan to hold for long and has less appetite to invest on property stock.
I like this stock because its share price has been fallen more than half from its peak and also the attraction of RM2.18bil unbilled sales. Thus, I predict it has much to offer. From this, I expect to see this stock can sustain very well in 2014.
Barely look on its RM2.18bil unbilled sales.
EPS = (21.8 x 20%) / 11.1 = RM0.393 （Assume margin is 20%.）
If the billing can complete within 3 years time, the company will able to generate EPS = RM0.131/year。
**Warrant expiry is on 2019. We can ignore it for temporary.**
My average purchase price is RM1.365. My fund allocated for trading purpose has been used up on TROP.
这个季的Performance Review那边，把卖资产和重估的元素除去。
税前盈利 = 117,900
总数票 = 1,107,281
EPS = 税后盈利 / 总数票 = (117,900 x 75%) / 1,107,281 = 7.99sen
其实我没研究的很深入，毕竟不打算收长期。个人也不大喜欢买产业股。
我喜欢的是此股跌的阿妈都不认得。 加上还没有进账的21.8亿令吉。应该很有肉吃。2014的业绩肯定继续看好。
单单看这个还没有进账的21.8亿令吉。
EPS = (21.8 x 20%) / 11.1 = RM0.393 （比如20%的盈利率）
如果3年内收完，平均一年可以得到RM0.131。
**Warrant 2019年才到期，暂时可以不管。**
买入平均价是RM1.365。投机的钱也用完在丽阳机构了。
Just take a simple review...
From the Performance Review of the recent quarter report announcement, by excluded its fair value adjustment on assets and land disposal.
PBT = 117,900
Nos = 1,107,281
EPS = PAT / Nos = (117,900 x 75%) / 1,107,281 = 7.99sen
I just done a simple study as I don't plan to hold for long and has less appetite to invest on property stock.
I like this stock because its share price has been fallen more than half from its peak and also the attraction of RM2.18bil unbilled sales. Thus, I predict it has much to offer. From this, I expect to see this stock can sustain very well in 2014.
Barely look on its RM2.18bil unbilled sales.
EPS = (21.8 x 20%) / 11.1 = RM0.393 （Assume margin is 20%.）
If the billing can complete within 3 years time, the company will able to generate EPS = RM0.131/year。
**Warrant expiry is on 2019. We can ignore it for temporary.**
My average purchase price is RM1.365. My fund allocated for trading purpose has been used up on TROP.
Saturday, 22 February 2014
UMSNGB: 资产出售 (Disposal of Properties)
简单跟踪公司最近几个月的资产出售资料：
卖出HPL
公布：11-Oct-13
完成：Q4FY13
卖价：RM4.46mil
盈利：亏RM2.55mil / EPS -3.30
运用：买生产原料（100%）
卖出UMSE资产
公布：13-Feb-14
完成：Q2FY14
卖价：RM5.58mil
盈利：赚RM2.21mil / EPS 2.86
运用：还债（86%），买生产原料（14%）
A brief update on the property disposal activities in the past few months:
Dispose HPL
Announcement Date: 11-Oct-13
Completion Date: Q4FY13
Selling Price: RM4.46mil
Profit/Loss: Loss of RM2.55mil / EPS -3.30
Utilisation: Purchase of raw material/stock (100%)
Disposal of Property by UMSE
Announcement Date: 13-Feb-14
Completion Date: Q2FY14
Selling Price: RM5.58mil
Profit/Loss: Profit of RM2.21mil / EPS 2.86
Utilisation: Settlement of debt (86%), Purchase of raw material/stock (14%)
卖出HPL
公布：11-Oct-13
完成：Q4FY13
卖价：RM4.46mil
盈利：亏RM2.55mil / EPS -3.30
运用：买生产原料（100%）
卖出UMSE资产
公布：13-Feb-14
完成：Q2FY14
卖价：RM5.58mil
盈利：赚RM2.21mil / EPS 2.86
运用：还债（86%），买生产原料（14%）
A brief update on the property disposal activities in the past few months:
Dispose HPL
Announcement Date: 11-Oct-13
Completion Date: Q4FY13
Selling Price: RM4.46mil
Profit/Loss: Loss of RM2.55mil / EPS -3.30
Utilisation: Purchase of raw material/stock (100%)
Disposal of Property by UMSE
Announcement Date: 13-Feb-14
Completion Date: Q2FY14
Selling Price: RM5.58mil
Profit/Loss: Profit of RM2.21mil / EPS 2.86
Utilisation: Settlement of debt (86%), Purchase of raw material/stock (14%)
Wednesday, 19 February 2014
Participation Analysis 【参与率分析】 @ 19-Feb-14
14-Feb开始形成交叉点。
外资用了一年的时间把投入的资本推上去高点。再用九个月时间回吐大部分投入的资本给于本地基金。外资底部大买，又成功在高部回吐。厉害厉害！
14-Feb-14 is the crossing point.
Foreign funds completed its accumulation within a year in order to hit its peak in term of invested capital in KLCI. But managed to dispose most of the invested capital in just 9 months. Buy in big at low price and sell off at high price. A magic trick done by Foreign funds.
LR - Local Retails 【散户】
LI - Local Institution 【本地基金】
F - Foreign 【外资】
Friday, 31 January 2014
PRTASCO: 前景重估 (Prospect Re-value)
(A) 汽油业务（还没完成的收购）| O&G Segment (Under acquisition plan)
昨天公司公布了收购印尼气油公司计划书的变化：
》收购76%的股份，变为63%。
》收购价USD55mil，变为USD22mil。
》保证盈利（税前）USD50mil，变为USD22mil。
》收购限期推迟到2014Q2。
》看到计划书的资料里，有个头四年稳赚的条件。参考（d），（e）和（f）。
》税前保证盈利的分发配套如以下的图表。
PRTASCO announced some changes on the O&G acquisition S&P proposal yesterday.
> Share acquisition percentage change from 76% to 63%.
> Acquisition value change from USD55mil to USD22mil.
> Profit guarantee (before tax) change from USD50mil to USD22mil.
> Acquisition completion date extended to 2014Q2.
> There is term and condition on this proposal to make sure the company will only to make profit in the first 4 years. Refer to (d), (e) and (f).
> Distribution plan of the profit guarantee as shown in below table.
Source: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1530529 (page 8)
这个变化，虽然股份少去了13%，反而收购成本减低了60%。但是，税前保证盈利也明显减少了56%。低成本，低回扣，都属于公平的交易。给予那些不看好这题收购的股东，也许是个利好。给予看好的股东，也很不错。税前保证盈利少去了，代表未来盈利的贡献会比较少。尤其是头两年，贡献比较不大。第三和第四年的贡献才比较明显。
Although the share acquisition percentage is reduced 13%, but it will be compensate with much lower cost of acquisition for about 60% reduction. Anyhow, the profit guarantee will be reduce for about 56% as well. Lower cost with lower profit guarantee, it is a fair deal. For those shareholders who do not like this acquisition, I think it will be a good news for them. For those who look forward on this acquisition greatly, it seem like a good deal as well. Due to profit guarantee is reduced, the contribution for the first 2 years will be less significant to eps. But it will be a different story in 3rd and 4th year.
(B) 政府公寓工程的合约 | PPA1M Contract
之前预测政府公寓工程（价值RM578.5mil）的盈利率为15%，但是管理层通过一个通告讲解预测的盈利率为大概10%。所以，这个合约贡献也许只大概贡献eps7-8sen一年。
21-Jan-14当天，富达再下一城，成功地从政府手中拿到另一题可负担建筑房屋的工程。工程价值大概RM88.1mil。预测在一年半里能为公司贡献大概eps2-3sen。
从以上两题的工程来看，预测未来会陆续从政府机构手中得到更多类似的合约。
From previous 1MALAYSIA CIVIL SERVANTS HOUSING PROGRAMME (PPA1M) contract (RM578.5mil) awarded from PUTRAJAYA CORPORATION, I predict the net profit margin as 15%. Anyhow, there is a statement from company through a bursa announcement, it mentioned the estimate net profit margin will be abound 10%. Thus, the contribution from this contract should reduce to eps7-8sen per year.
On 21-Jan-14, PRTASCO managed to get another contract to build affordable houses with RM88.1mil contract value. The estimate contribution for this contract is eps2-3sen for one and half year period.
From above 2 contracts, expect to receive more similar contract from government corporations.
相关的前贴 | Related Post:
http://whytoocare-y2k.blogspot.com/2013/12/5070-prtasco.html
昨天公司公布了收购印尼气油公司计划书的变化：
》收购76%的股份，变为63%。
》收购价USD55mil，变为USD22mil。
》保证盈利（税前）USD50mil，变为USD22mil。
》收购限期推迟到2014Q2。
》看到计划书的资料里，有个头四年稳赚的条件。参考（d），（e）和（f）。
》税前保证盈利的分发配套如以下的图表。
PRTASCO announced some changes on the O&G acquisition S&P proposal yesterday.
> Share acquisition percentage change from 76% to 63%.
> Acquisition value change from USD55mil to USD22mil.
> Profit guarantee (before tax) change from USD50mil to USD22mil.
> Acquisition completion date extended to 2014Q2.
> There is term and condition on this proposal to make sure the company will only to make profit in the first 4 years. Refer to (d), (e) and (f).
> Distribution plan of the profit guarantee as shown in below table.
这个变化，虽然股份少去了13%，反而收购成本减低了60%。但是，税前保证盈利也明显减少了56%。低成本，低回扣，都属于公平的交易。给予那些不看好这题收购的股东，也许是个利好。给予看好的股东，也很不错。税前保证盈利少去了，代表未来盈利的贡献会比较少。尤其是头两年，贡献比较不大。第三和第四年的贡献才比较明显。
Although the share acquisition percentage is reduced 13%, but it will be compensate with much lower cost of acquisition for about 60% reduction. Anyhow, the profit guarantee will be reduce for about 56% as well. Lower cost with lower profit guarantee, it is a fair deal. For those shareholders who do not like this acquisition, I think it will be a good news for them. For those who look forward on this acquisition greatly, it seem like a good deal as well. Due to profit guarantee is reduced, the contribution for the first 2 years will be less significant to eps. But it will be a different story in 3rd and 4th year.
(B) 政府公寓工程的合约 | PPA1M Contract
之前预测政府公寓工程（价值RM578.5mil）的盈利率为15%，但是管理层通过一个通告讲解预测的盈利率为大概10%。所以，这个合约贡献也许只大概贡献eps7-8sen一年。
21-Jan-14当天，富达再下一城，成功地从政府手中拿到另一题可负担建筑房屋的工程。工程价值大概RM88.1mil。预测在一年半里能为公司贡献大概eps2-3sen。
从以上两题的工程来看，预测未来会陆续从政府机构手中得到更多类似的合约。
From previous 1MALAYSIA CIVIL SERVANTS HOUSING PROGRAMME (PPA1M) contract (RM578.5mil) awarded from PUTRAJAYA CORPORATION, I predict the net profit margin as 15%. Anyhow, there is a statement from company through a bursa announcement, it mentioned the estimate net profit margin will be abound 10%. Thus, the contribution from this contract should reduce to eps7-8sen per year.
On 21-Jan-14, PRTASCO managed to get another contract to build affordable houses with RM88.1mil contract value. The estimate contribution for this contract is eps2-3sen for one and half year period.
From above 2 contracts, expect to receive more similar contract from government corporations.
相关的前贴 | Related Post:
http://whytoocare-y2k.blogspot.com/2013/12/5070-prtasco.html
Wednesday, 15 January 2014
PRTASCO: 私募 (Private Placement)
【以下的文章只是属于个人猜测，并不代表真实的情形。】
公司建议私募50mil股数给指定的投资者。每一股就配送两个凭单。私募股的售价是最少RM1.65。普通的股东，将会每十股配送一个凭单。
凭单的转换价 = RM2.00
凭单转换比率 = 1:1
凭单的期限 = 5年
首先，我们必须了解这题私募的主要目的和运作。
私募，都是从指定投资者的手上筹到资金。筹到多少资金，就必需看私募股的售价。私募价越高，筹到的资金就越多。【属于短期需要的发展资金】
凭单，也是一个筹资金的工具。当股东转换凭单去母股，公司就会得到一笔新资金。转换价越高，得到的新资金就越多。【属于给未来需要的发展资金】
但是，转换价太高，就会造成转换去母股的溢价越高。溢价越高，代表越不划算转换去母股。
思考题：
如果你是被选为私募的指定投资者，当然要得到好处才会考虑参与。以高价私募给指定的投资者，看来很不利，所以公司就以附送更多凭单的方式给私募者。但是，RM2.00转换价既然是比现有的母股价还要高（溢价非常高）。看来还是对私募者很不利！？
以公司的未来情景来考虑，个人认为，这题都是双赢方案。
一，高价私募会带来更多资金让公司发展。私募者的回报就是得到更多的凭单和跟着公司成长。普通股东的回报就是得到少许的凭单，而更大的回报就是私募的资金将会让公司带来更好的未来发而激发股价的增值。
二，凭单的转换价高，也代表对公司未来的发展很看好和需要更大的资金维持成长。只要公司未来有很不错的成长，母股的价钱就会慢慢上升。到时，凭单的股价和溢价自然会反射到一个比较合理的水平。
三，一间拥有非凡未来的公司，又有不错流通量的票数，在凭单的期限还长，其凭单的溢价预测不会低，比如值得20-30%以上的溢价。只要公司交出不错的成绩单，到时母股的价自然会水涨船高，而凭单的股价也会紧紧跟着上。
预测母股价的走势？
私募股的售价是最少RM1.65，在私募定价的日期前，到底母股的价钱会不会一直被压在RM1.65以下？也许会，也许不会。
1）可以知道的是，RM1.65 x 50mil = RM82.5mil是最低的资金筹备限制。如果公司接下来的运作费属于在预测中，母股的价钱就不必特地去推高。
2）个人认为，主要是看公司和私募者如何达成这题协议。如果公司预测中的发展计划突然需要更多的资金，股价也许会在私募定价期前推高，而得到更多的资金。
3）在（2）的情形，私募者也可以在公开市场以低价买入母股，过后再顺手把股价推高来达到股价增值的回酬。
私募对普通股东不利？
猜一猜。。。
A）如果到时母股的价钱维持在RM1.65，凭单的价值如下：
1）凭单的溢价是40%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.310（RM1.65x140% - RM2.00）
2）凭单的溢价是35%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.225
3）凭单的溢价是30%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.145
4）凭单的溢价是25%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.060
B）如果到时母股的价钱维持在RM1.80，凭单的价值如下：
1）凭单的溢价是35%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.430
2）凭单的溢价是30%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.340
3）凭单的溢价是25%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.250
4）凭单的溢价是20%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.160
看一看。。。
情形（A）：私募者的母股折扣价
1）凭单的溢价是40%，母股的折扣价为RM1.03（RM1.65 - RM0.310x2）
2）凭单的溢价是35%，母股的折扣价为RM1.20（RM1.65 - RM0.225x2）
3）凭单的溢价是30%，母股的折扣价为RM1.36（RM1.65 - RM0.145x2）
4）凭单的溢价是25%，母股的折扣价为RM1.53（RM1.65 - RM0.060x2）
情形（B）：私募者的母股折扣价
1）凭单的溢价是35%，母股的折扣价为RM0.94（RM1.80 - RM0.430x2）
2）凭单的溢价是30%，母股的折扣价为RM1.12（RM1.80 - RM0.340x2）
3）凭单的溢价是25%，母股的折扣价为RM1.30（RM1.80 - RM0.250x2）
4）凭单的溢价是20%，母股的折扣价为RM1.48（RM1.80 - RM0.160x2）
情形（A）：普通股东的母股折扣价（比如买入价是RM1.40）
1）凭单的溢价是40%，母股的折扣价为RM1.119（RM1.40 - RM0.310/10 - RM0.25）
2）凭单的溢价是35%，母股的折扣价为RM1.128（RM1.40 - RM0.225/10 - RM0.25）
3）凭单的溢价是30%，母股的折扣价为RM1.136（RM1.40 - RM0.145/10 - RM0.25）
4）凭单的溢价是25%，母股的折扣价为RM1.144（RM1.40 - RM0.060/10 - RM0.25）
情形（B）：普通股东的母股折扣价（比如买入价是RM1.40）
1）凭单的溢价是35%，母股的折扣价为RM0.957（RM1.40 - RM0.430/10 - RM0.40）
2）凭单的溢价是30%，母股的折扣价为RM0.966（RM1.40 - RM0.340/10 - RM0.40）
3）凭单的溢价是25%，母股的折扣价为RM0.975（RM1.40 - RM0.250/10 - RM0.40）
4）凭单的溢价是20%，母股的折扣价为RM0.984（RM1.40 - RM0.160/10 - RM0.40）
以上的猜测，只要凭单的溢价在40%/35%以下，普通股东的利益都比私募者更胜一筹。但是，当凭单的溢价可以去到更高，私募者的回酬都会比普通股东来的好。
或者有人会问，如果到时母股一直都维持在RM1.40的水平，普通的股东不就是得不到任何利益？
一，如果是那样，所谓的凭单溢价都会去到很不理智的水平。
二，一间好的公司，股价要去到RM1.65以上，只是迟早的事情。所以，赚那个差价也只是时间上的问题。
三，没任何利益的情况应该只会发生在大市倒盘的情形中。到时，买什么股都是没任何利益！
所以，我完全不理解为何有人说这题私募的配套是对普通股东不利？
投资一个股其实很简单，只要未来有非凡的成长，股价就会跟着增值。眼前的利益都是短暂性的回报，就当作是一个红利吧（bonus）！
注：通过这个私募后，公司的每股盈利会被冲淡少许。
【Below Statement is just a prediction and does not represent the actual situation.】
Company proposed Private Placement of 50mil share. Each placement share will entitle 2 free warrant. Placement price is minimum RM1.65. For existing shareholder, will entitle 1 free warrant for every 10 shares.
Warrant conversion price = RM2.00
Warrant conversion ratio = 1:1
Warrant expiry period = 5 years
First, we should understand the purpose of this PP.
PP, it is a tool to rise fund through selected 3rd party investors. The amount of PP fund will much depend on the PP offer price. The higher the offer price, company will able to generate more fund. (Normally, fund generate from PP is for short term usage.)
Warrant, it is another tool to rise fund through warrant shareholder. Company will able to generate fund when warrant shareholder converted its warrant to mother-share. The higher the conversion price, company will able to generate more fund. (Normally, the fund generate from Warrant is for mid to long term usage.)
Anyhow, if the warrant conversion price is too high, it will come with very high premium. On such case, warrant conversion to mother-share mostly will not happen as warrant shareholder has to pay at higher price.
Let's think:
If you are selected to be the PP investor, the return on the investment should be the main goal. At such higher PP offer price, the investment seems does not bias to PP investor. Thus, company has offered 2 free warrant for each placement share. Anyway, the conversion price of warrant is at RM2.00 which is higher than current mother share's price. The offer looks not impressive due to high premium of warrant.
By considering of the company future prospect, I would rate this is a win-win proposal.
1. High PP offer price will able to generate more cash to company for better development and expansion. The return for the PP investor will be the more warrant given and the company's future growth. For existing share holder, the return will be warrant bonus and cash generate from PP to push up the earning of the company in the future.
2. Warrant conversion price is high. I guess it is due to high expectation on the company's future prospect and also higher cash needed for development and expansion. As long as company manage to grow well, the mother share will goes up according to its intrinsic value. Thus, warrant price will goes up accordingly.
3. A company with good prospect, high liquidity in open market, warrant still has plenty of time to reach its maturity, I guess warrant will offer at high premium (example 20-30%). If company manage to achieve good result in future, its mother share will goes up and its warrant will able to reflect reasonable premium accordingly.
Prediction on the share price movement:
As mentioned, the PP offer price is at least RM1.65. So, will the share price will facing selling pressure at RM1.65 or below? I think, maybe yes, maybe no.
1) One thing can assure, the minimum amount of the fund to be rise is RM1.65 x 50mil = RM82.5mil. If company is not require to have more cash in short term, I think it is not necessary for the share price to goes higher.
2) Personally, I think it will be much depend on the deal between company and PP investor. If company need more cash in short term, the share price should goes up higher in order to generate more fund.
3) If case (2) is the choice, PP investor should able to buy mother share at lower price before push up the share price. By doing this, they will able to get back some capital to pay the higher PP offer price.
PP is not favour to existing shareholder?
Let's guess...
A）If the share price maintain at RM1.65, warrant value will be as below:
1）Warrant's premium is 40%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.310（RM1.65x140% - RM2.00）
2）Warrant's premium is 35%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.225
3）Warrant's premium is 30%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.145
4）Warrant's premium is 25%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.060
B）If the share price maintain at RM1.80, warrant value will be as below:
1）Warrant's premium is 35%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.430
2）Warrant's premium is 30%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.340
3）Warrant's premium is 25%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.250
4）Warrant's premium is 20%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.160
Let's check...
Scenario (A) : Discounted share price for PP investor
1）Warrant's premium is 40%，Discounted share price is RM1.03（RM1.65 - RM0.310x2）
2）Warrant's premium is 35%，Discounted share price is RM1.20（RM1.65 - RM0.225x2）
3）Warrant's premium is 30%，Discounted share price is RM1.36（RM1.65 - RM0.145x2）
4）Warrant's premium is 25%，Discounted share price is RM1.53（RM1.65 - RM0.060x2）
Scenario (B) : Discounted share price for PP investor
1）Warrant's premium is 35%，Discounted share price is RM0.94（RM1.80 - RM0.430x2）
2）Warrant's premium is 30%，Discounted share price is RM1.12（RM1.80 - RM0.340x2）
3）Warrant's premium is 25%，Discounted share price is RM1.30（RM1.80 - RM0.250x2）
4）Warrant's premium is 20%，Discounted share price is RM1.48（RM1.80 - RM0.160x2）
Scenario (A) : Discounted share price for existing investor (If purchase price at RM1.40)
1）Warrant's premium is 40%，Discounted share price is RM1.119（RM1.40 - RM0.310/10 - RM0.25）
2）Warrant's premium is 35%，Discounted share price is RM1.128（RM1.40 - RM0.225/10 - RM0.25）
3）Warrant's premium is 30%，Discounted share price is RM1.136（RM1.40 - RM0.145/10 - RM0.25）
4）Warrant's premium is 25%，Discounted share price is RM1.144（RM1.40 - RM0.060/10 - RM0.25）
Scenario (B) : Discounted share price for existing investor (If purchase price at RM1.40)
1）Warrant's premium is 35%，Discounted share price is RM0.957（RM1.40 - RM0.430/10 - RM0.40）
2）Warrant's premium is 30%，Discounted share price is RM0.966（RM1.40 - RM0.340/10 - RM0.40）
3）Warrant's premium is 25%，Discounted share price is RM0.975（RM1.40 - RM0.250/10 - RM0.40）
4）Warrant's premium is 20%，Discounted share price is RM0.984（RM1.40 - RM0.160/10 - RM0.40）
With above guess, as long as the premiums is below 40%/35%, the offer will be bias to existing shareholder. Else, it will bias to PP investor.
Some may ask, if the share price maintain at RM1.40 level until the exercise completed, does it mean existing shareholder will be the loser?
1. If this is the case, it mean the warrant premium will become unrealistic.
2. A company with good prospect, it is just a matter of time in order for the share price goes up to RM1.65 or above. So, the beta of capital gain will be realized in coming future.
3. Existing will become a loser if the market sentimental is very bad. In such situation, I think most of the inventors (in other stocks) will become a loser as well.
Thus, there is no reason for me to categorize this PP as a bad proposal to existing shareholder.
It will be simple way to invest in a stock. As long as the company prospect is very good, the share price will goes up according to its intrinsic value. The immediate short term gain will only be a bonus to me.
Remark: Through this PP, the eps will be diluted accordingly.
公司建议私募50mil股数给指定的投资者。每一股就配送两个凭单。私募股的售价是最少RM1.65。普通的股东，将会每十股配送一个凭单。
凭单的转换价 = RM2.00
凭单转换比率 = 1:1
凭单的期限 = 5年
首先，我们必须了解这题私募的主要目的和运作。
私募，都是从指定投资者的手上筹到资金。筹到多少资金，就必需看私募股的售价。私募价越高，筹到的资金就越多。【属于短期需要的发展资金】
凭单，也是一个筹资金的工具。当股东转换凭单去母股，公司就会得到一笔新资金。转换价越高，得到的新资金就越多。【属于给未来需要的发展资金】
但是，转换价太高，就会造成转换去母股的溢价越高。溢价越高，代表越不划算转换去母股。
思考题：
如果你是被选为私募的指定投资者，当然要得到好处才会考虑参与。以高价私募给指定的投资者，看来很不利，所以公司就以附送更多凭单的方式给私募者。但是，RM2.00转换价既然是比现有的母股价还要高（溢价非常高）。看来还是对私募者很不利！？
以公司的未来情景来考虑，个人认为，这题都是双赢方案。
一，高价私募会带来更多资金让公司发展。私募者的回报就是得到更多的凭单和跟着公司成长。普通股东的回报就是得到少许的凭单，而更大的回报就是私募的资金将会让公司带来更好的未来发而激发股价的增值。
二，凭单的转换价高，也代表对公司未来的发展很看好和需要更大的资金维持成长。只要公司未来有很不错的成长，母股的价钱就会慢慢上升。到时，凭单的股价和溢价自然会反射到一个比较合理的水平。
三，一间拥有非凡未来的公司，又有不错流通量的票数，在凭单的期限还长，其凭单的溢价预测不会低，比如值得20-30%以上的溢价。只要公司交出不错的成绩单，到时母股的价自然会水涨船高，而凭单的股价也会紧紧跟着上。
预测母股价的走势？
私募股的售价是最少RM1.65，在私募定价的日期前，到底母股的价钱会不会一直被压在RM1.65以下？也许会，也许不会。
1）可以知道的是，RM1.65 x 50mil = RM82.5mil是最低的资金筹备限制。如果公司接下来的运作费属于在预测中，母股的价钱就不必特地去推高。
2）个人认为，主要是看公司和私募者如何达成这题协议。如果公司预测中的发展计划突然需要更多的资金，股价也许会在私募定价期前推高，而得到更多的资金。
3）在（2）的情形，私募者也可以在公开市场以低价买入母股，过后再顺手把股价推高来达到股价增值的回酬。
私募对普通股东不利？
猜一猜。。。
A）如果到时母股的价钱维持在RM1.65，凭单的价值如下：
1）凭单的溢价是40%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.310（RM1.65x140% - RM2.00）
2）凭单的溢价是35%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.225
3）凭单的溢价是30%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.145
4）凭单的溢价是25%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.060
B）如果到时母股的价钱维持在RM1.80，凭单的价值如下：
1）凭单的溢价是35%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.430
2）凭单的溢价是30%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.340
3）凭单的溢价是25%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.250
4）凭单的溢价是20%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.160
看一看。。。
情形（A）：私募者的母股折扣价
1）凭单的溢价是40%，母股的折扣价为RM1.03（RM1.65 - RM0.310x2）
2）凭单的溢价是35%，母股的折扣价为RM1.20（RM1.65 - RM0.225x2）
3）凭单的溢价是30%，母股的折扣价为RM1.36（RM1.65 - RM0.145x2）
4）凭单的溢价是25%，母股的折扣价为RM1.53（RM1.65 - RM0.060x2）
情形（B）：私募者的母股折扣价
1）凭单的溢价是35%，母股的折扣价为RM0.94（RM1.80 - RM0.430x2）
2）凭单的溢价是30%，母股的折扣价为RM1.12（RM1.80 - RM0.340x2）
3）凭单的溢价是25%，母股的折扣价为RM1.30（RM1.80 - RM0.250x2）
4）凭单的溢价是20%，母股的折扣价为RM1.48（RM1.80 - RM0.160x2）
情形（A）：普通股东的母股折扣价（比如买入价是RM1.40）
1）凭单的溢价是40%，母股的折扣价为RM1.119（RM1.40 - RM0.310/10 - RM0.25）
2）凭单的溢价是35%，母股的折扣价为RM1.128（RM1.40 - RM0.225/10 - RM0.25）
3）凭单的溢价是30%，母股的折扣价为RM1.136（RM1.40 - RM0.145/10 - RM0.25）
4）凭单的溢价是25%，母股的折扣价为RM1.144（RM1.40 - RM0.060/10 - RM0.25）
情形（B）：普通股东的母股折扣价（比如买入价是RM1.40）
1）凭单的溢价是35%，母股的折扣价为RM0.957（RM1.40 - RM0.430/10 - RM0.40）
2）凭单的溢价是30%，母股的折扣价为RM0.966（RM1.40 - RM0.340/10 - RM0.40）
3）凭单的溢价是25%，母股的折扣价为RM0.975（RM1.40 - RM0.250/10 - RM0.40）
4）凭单的溢价是20%，母股的折扣价为RM0.984（RM1.40 - RM0.160/10 - RM0.40）
以上的猜测，只要凭单的溢价在40%/35%以下，普通股东的利益都比私募者更胜一筹。但是，当凭单的溢价可以去到更高，私募者的回酬都会比普通股东来的好。
或者有人会问，如果到时母股一直都维持在RM1.40的水平，普通的股东不就是得不到任何利益？
一，如果是那样，所谓的凭单溢价都会去到很不理智的水平。
二，一间好的公司，股价要去到RM1.65以上，只是迟早的事情。所以，赚那个差价也只是时间上的问题。
三，没任何利益的情况应该只会发生在大市倒盘的情形中。到时，买什么股都是没任何利益！
所以，我完全不理解为何有人说这题私募的配套是对普通股东不利？
投资一个股其实很简单，只要未来有非凡的成长，股价就会跟着增值。眼前的利益都是短暂性的回报，就当作是一个红利吧（bonus）！
注：通过这个私募后，公司的每股盈利会被冲淡少许。
【Below Statement is just a prediction and does not represent the actual situation.】
Company proposed Private Placement of 50mil share. Each placement share will entitle 2 free warrant. Placement price is minimum RM1.65. For existing shareholder, will entitle 1 free warrant for every 10 shares.
Warrant conversion price = RM2.00
Warrant conversion ratio = 1:1
Warrant expiry period = 5 years
First, we should understand the purpose of this PP.
PP, it is a tool to rise fund through selected 3rd party investors. The amount of PP fund will much depend on the PP offer price. The higher the offer price, company will able to generate more fund. (Normally, fund generate from PP is for short term usage.)
Warrant, it is another tool to rise fund through warrant shareholder. Company will able to generate fund when warrant shareholder converted its warrant to mother-share. The higher the conversion price, company will able to generate more fund. (Normally, the fund generate from Warrant is for mid to long term usage.)
Anyhow, if the warrant conversion price is too high, it will come with very high premium. On such case, warrant conversion to mother-share mostly will not happen as warrant shareholder has to pay at higher price.
Let's think:
If you are selected to be the PP investor, the return on the investment should be the main goal. At such higher PP offer price, the investment seems does not bias to PP investor. Thus, company has offered 2 free warrant for each placement share. Anyway, the conversion price of warrant is at RM2.00 which is higher than current mother share's price. The offer looks not impressive due to high premium of warrant.
By considering of the company future prospect, I would rate this is a win-win proposal.
1. High PP offer price will able to generate more cash to company for better development and expansion. The return for the PP investor will be the more warrant given and the company's future growth. For existing share holder, the return will be warrant bonus and cash generate from PP to push up the earning of the company in the future.
2. Warrant conversion price is high. I guess it is due to high expectation on the company's future prospect and also higher cash needed for development and expansion. As long as company manage to grow well, the mother share will goes up according to its intrinsic value. Thus, warrant price will goes up accordingly.
3. A company with good prospect, high liquidity in open market, warrant still has plenty of time to reach its maturity, I guess warrant will offer at high premium (example 20-30%). If company manage to achieve good result in future, its mother share will goes up and its warrant will able to reflect reasonable premium accordingly.
Prediction on the share price movement:
As mentioned, the PP offer price is at least RM1.65. So, will the share price will facing selling pressure at RM1.65 or below? I think, maybe yes, maybe no.
1) One thing can assure, the minimum amount of the fund to be rise is RM1.65 x 50mil = RM82.5mil. If company is not require to have more cash in short term, I think it is not necessary for the share price to goes higher.
2) Personally, I think it will be much depend on the deal between company and PP investor. If company need more cash in short term, the share price should goes up higher in order to generate more fund.
3) If case (2) is the choice, PP investor should able to buy mother share at lower price before push up the share price. By doing this, they will able to get back some capital to pay the higher PP offer price.
PP is not favour to existing shareholder?
Let's guess...
A）If the share price maintain at RM1.65, warrant value will be as below:
1）Warrant's premium is 40%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.310（RM1.65x140% - RM2.00）
2）Warrant's premium is 35%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.225
3）Warrant's premium is 30%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.145
4）Warrant's premium is 25%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.060
B）If the share price maintain at RM1.80, warrant value will be as below:
1）Warrant's premium is 35%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.430
2）Warrant's premium is 30%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.340
3）Warrant's premium is 25%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.250
4）Warrant's premium is 20%，PRTASCO-WA = RM0.160
Let's check...
Scenario (A) : Discounted share price for PP investor
1）Warrant's premium is 40%，Discounted share price is RM1.03（RM1.65 - RM0.310x2）
2）Warrant's premium is 35%，Discounted share price is RM1.20（RM1.65 - RM0.225x2）
3）Warrant's premium is 30%，Discounted share price is RM1.36（RM1.65 - RM0.145x2）
4）Warrant's premium is 25%，Discounted share price is RM1.53（RM1.65 - RM0.060x2）
Scenario (B) : Discounted share price for PP investor
1）Warrant's premium is 35%，Discounted share price is RM0.94（RM1.80 - RM0.430x2）
2）Warrant's premium is 30%，Discounted share price is RM1.12（RM1.80 - RM0.340x2）
3）Warrant's premium is 25%，Discounted share price is RM1.30（RM1.80 - RM0.250x2）
4）Warrant's premium is 20%，Discounted share price is RM1.48（RM1.80 - RM0.160x2）
Scenario (A) : Discounted share price for existing investor (If purchase price at RM1.40)
1）Warrant's premium is 40%，Discounted share price is RM1.119（RM1.40 - RM0.310/10 - RM0.25）
2）Warrant's premium is 35%，Discounted share price is RM1.128（RM1.40 - RM0.225/10 - RM0.25）
3）Warrant's premium is 30%，Discounted share price is RM1.136（RM1.40 - RM0.145/10 - RM0.25）
4）Warrant's premium is 25%，Discounted share price is RM1.144（RM1.40 - RM0.060/10 - RM0.25）
Scenario (B) : Discounted share price for existing investor (If purchase price at RM1.40)
1）Warrant's premium is 35%，Discounted share price is RM0.957（RM1.40 - RM0.430/10 - RM0.40）
2）Warrant's premium is 30%，Discounted share price is RM0.966（RM1.40 - RM0.340/10 - RM0.40）
3）Warrant's premium is 25%，Discounted share price is RM0.975（RM1.40 - RM0.250/10 - RM0.40）
4）Warrant's premium is 20%，Discounted share price is RM0.984（RM1.40 - RM0.160/10 - RM0.40）
With above guess, as long as the premiums is below 40%/35%, the offer will be bias to existing shareholder. Else, it will bias to PP investor.
Some may ask, if the share price maintain at RM1.40 level until the exercise completed, does it mean existing shareholder will be the loser?
1. If this is the case, it mean the warrant premium will become unrealistic.
2. A company with good prospect, it is just a matter of time in order for the share price goes up to RM1.65 or above. So, the beta of capital gain will be realized in coming future.
3. Existing will become a loser if the market sentimental is very bad. In such situation, I think most of the inventors (in other stocks) will become a loser as well.
Thus, there is no reason for me to categorize this PP as a bad proposal to existing shareholder.
It will be simple way to invest in a stock. As long as the company prospect is very good, the share price will goes up according to its intrinsic value. The immediate short term gain will only be a bonus to me.
Remark: Through this PP, the eps will be diluted accordingly.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)