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Monday, 2 December 2013

[5070] PRTASCO

【富達集團】【PRTASCO】

公司的背景,我不多说。资料可以从论坛和其他投资管道轻易得到。
让我们直接进入重点吧!

I will direct to the analysis without explain much on the company's business and its background. You can grab the details easily through other investment channels.

基本面分析:(Fundamental Analysis)

1. 过去六年,平均每年在EPS=12sen的水平。大致上来看,生意属于稳定。
2. 派息率都有60%以上。属于高股息公司。
3. 公路建筑和维修,贸易业务,房地产,都有明显的增长。接下来的未来继续看好。

1. In the past 6 years, its average eps is about 12sen. The business looks very stable.
2. Dividend payout ratio is above 60% of eps. It is consider a high dividend yield company.
3. Its construction contract, trading and property development segments are showing good growth. Its prospect expect to be better.
PL, BS & CF
Quarterly EPS
Segment Report

技术面分析:(Technical Analysis)

From IPO until now, it is already listing for 10years. Good prospect is slowly surfacing now. Thus, expecting it will reach RM2 as the first target price. The trend is showing double bottom and follow by great rebound with huge volume.

(From left) The first blue circle is happened during special dividend announcement. 2nd circle is made by share buyback from the company. The horizontal lines in between red and green arrows, is the private placement boundary. In 3rd circle, the share price pick up quickly and fall up even fast without any news in between. I guess the activity is for share accumulation and trap the shorten traders. The last circle with share price gap up and huge volume happened due to the company has been awarded with 1Malaysia Housing construction contract, which is came with a big value.


流动票分析:(Floating share Analysis)

在9-Jul-13,Lembaga Tabung Haji拥有接近公司10%(大概30mil)的票数。直到15-Nov-13,短短4个月,票数持有已经减少到5%以下(大概15.5mil)的票数。在5%持有率以下票数的股东,过后的买卖都不必再向股票交易所交代。
在这段时期,股价的价位一直在1.24-1.54摆横。我预测,在这段时期,Lembaga Tabung Haji卖出的平均价属于RM1.3x。对方以这个平均价来在市场买入Lembaga Tabung Haji的票,必须付出的价值是大概RM40mil。
试问,普通的散户有何能力来收买如此龙大的票数?我预测,主要部分的票,都是由基金或大型投资者买入。
试问,以现有的价买入,投资的风险会有多高?这个答案,大家心里有数。

At 9-Jul-13, Lembaga Tabung Haji is holding close to 10% of company share, which is about 30mil shares. As of 15-Nov-13, its share holding has been fallen below 5% (reduced to 15.5mil shares). After that, any buy sell activity is not compulsory to be announced in Bursa Malaysia.
During this period, the share price is fall between 1.24 - 1.54. I guess, its average selling price is about RM1.3x. In order for the counter parties to absorb its share, RM40mil value or more is a must.
Do you think the normal local retails are able to absorb it? I guess most of the part is done by Investment Funds or big cap investors.
How do you think about the risk if buy at current price? I think you should have an answer for it.



未来重点分析:(Prospects Analysis)

1. 拿到政府公寓工程,价值RM578.5mil。24个月必须完成。预测明年头开工。以15%的盈利率来算,大概平均一年有EPS 12sen。现有业务,如果可以维持去年的整年业绩,代表这个贡献有可能会把公司的盈利增倍(EPS 100%成长)。
2. 公司还再谈着收购印尼的一间气油公司。收购还没完成的原因,主要是因为公司要肯定被收购回来的印尼公司,能够延长(多10年)明年将快要到期的10年合约。如果这题收购能达成,在头4年内,将拥有USD55mil的税前保证盈利。如果税率是25%,将会带来每年大概EPS 7-8sen。
3. 拥有De Centrum 100 英亩总值60 亿(估计)的房屋发展计划,有10-15 年的时间发展。以十年来计算,每年可以制作6 亿的营业额(RM600mil)。
4. 其他新的小工程,如果运作费控制的好,预测能带来大概每年EPS 3-5sen的收入。(12年12月到13年9月的新合约)。
5. 利比亚工程重新开工。之前报销的RM20mil,有望可以从利比亚政府得到赔赏(不清楚是部分还是全部)。但是管理层讲到,接下来在那边开工的开销,不用出一分钱。
6. 2014 Malaysia Budget里,公布发出价值RM4.1bil的乡下基础设施建设项目。其中道路的工程大概有RM1.5bil。如果能够得到以上的合约,都可以带来营业额的增长。

》把这题数学算了一下,觉得很不可思议。既然越算越多!如果以保守的方式去算,好像也不少!简单的数学题我不喜欢做。那样就交给你们自己去算吧!

1. Awarded with RM578.5mil contract value to build 1Malaysia housing and to be complete within 24 months. The work is expected to be start by early of next year. Assume net profit margin is 15%, it will contribute about eps 12sen per year. If the existing business can sustain as per last year, this mean the contribution from this contract is possible to double up its eps. (100% growth in eps)
2. Acquisition on an Indonesia O&G company is still in progress. The pending work is mainly due to the confirmation of contract extension for another 10years for the O&G company that they are going to acquire. If succeed, there will be a profit guarantee before tax for about USD55mil. If the tax rate is 25%, it will roughly contribute about eps 7-8sen.
3. Its De Centrum property development which valued at RM6 billion (estimation) is able to sustain for another 10-15years. By taking 10 years as completion target timeframe, it will able to contribute RM600mil revenue per year for the company.
4. By considering other newly awarded contracts (since Dec-12 until Sep-13) and operation cost is under control, another eps 3-5sen will not be a problem.
5. Company is returning to Libya after halting operations there due to a revolution. Company has written off RM20m in provision in the past two years for the halted operations in Libya. According to MD, Libya is promise to pay back on the provision (not sure is in full or partial amount). Thus, there is no extra expense to be taken out to continue the works there.
6. In 2014 Malaysia Budget, RM4.1bil to be provided for basic rural infrastructure projects, including RM980mil to upgrade 437km of rural road networks nationwide and RM500mil for Pan-Borneo Highway project. If the company manage to get some of the contracts, it will definitely increasing its revenue.

》By making calculation on it, it looks unbelievable. It is a big figure! By making conservative estimation, its still looks great! This mathematics question is too simple for me. Pls do it yourself!


风险考虑:(Risk Consideration)

1. 官司案,如果被告成功,必须陪大概RM10mil的赔款。都是一次性,应该算是一个加码的机会。
2. 股市在高点,外围不稳定。看你是买公司的未来,还是买大市造成股价的变化?
3. 汽油业,是一个不知数。未来能够带来更大的盈利,还是侵蚀掉公司的盈利?外行人都不容易明白。唯一的保障就是那个税前保证盈利。如果到时这个东西也有变化,自己要好好思考思考了。

1. Company is under a court case. If lose it, penalty will be RM10mil. But it will be one time deal and should be a opportunity to buy at low price.
2. Share market remains at high side and exposing to unstable macro in worldwide. Just think about whether you are investing in a company with good prospect  or betting for a better offer that MAY arise from market crash or panic sell?
3. O&G sector is not a one plus one equation. There is a lot of unknown especially for outsider. Layman may not able to estimate it will boost up earning for company or an erosion to the earning. The profit guarantee before tax is the only point that can ease my mind in short term. If this can't help, you should think able your next step.

关于汽油业的新闻:(Some news regarding O&G sector)

【2013年10月02日】
富达:待符合条件 稍延收购印尼油气商

【FY13Q3季报】
Source: http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/edmswebh.nsf/all/AEF25E8E697F41E248257C41005D934B/$File/PB%20Q3%202013%20Notes.pdf (page 10)

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