切入点 vs 心态：（快而准+肯定性难预测 vs 慢而稳+肯定性明显高）
很多人喜欢等个股上升的趋势才介入一个一直追踪着的股（比如A股）。虽然眼前看好，但是就是“等”的因素，所以迟迟不买入。以这样心态的人，往往会把所剩的钱投入其他已经在上升趋势的股（比如B股）。毕竟大部分人都喜欢看到比较快的眼前回酬。
情形一：
在这个时期，如果压中了上升趋势的股（B股）带来盈利了，投资者往往会继续守，毕竟上升趋势不会在短期内完毕。所以，虽然看到A股开始有上升趋势，投资者还是无动于中。也许，有部分投资者会做换马的决定（条件：B股价暴涨过头/知道A股的基本面远远好过B股和要果断的决定）。
效果：（1）过后的A股或B股那个可以赚得比较多，就要看个股的条件。自找烦恼。回酬也许会是比较少或分别不大。（2）做得对又做得秒。投资心态很强的投资者。回酬赚更多。
情形二：
要不然，压错了，短期没赚钱或亏着钱，A股开始飙了（尤其是一下起了10%以上）。可以肯定，大部分的投资者的心态会不舍得放弃之前的B股，因为心理因素不能接受A股突然起了很多和B股面临着没钱赚的情况。
效果：（1）错失良机或（2）认错赚更少。
情形三：
如果A股的条件能给很不错的回酬（比如：50%），够稳，肯定性高，买入耐心等。不必太烦恼地达到预测中回酬率。
效果：预测中的回酬。
投资。。。都是选择性的决定。个人的心态和操作能力是一环很重要的因素来决定你的投资回酬。
以上的情形，有没有发生过在你投资的生涯里？以你的能力，会比较适合那以种投资方式？
Time The Trend vs Mentality Management: (Quick & Right + Less Certainty vs Slow But Steady + High Certainty)
A lot of investors prefer to buy in a stock that under radar (let's say Stock A) only when its up-trend is come. Even though the stock looks very attractive, but they put a hold on it due to may wait for a longer time in order for the stock price to goes up. For this type of investor, their on hand cash will mostly goes into another stock which is already in up-trend condition (let's say Stock B). This will be a common case due to investor prefer to get immediate return once invested on a stock.
Scenario 1:
For such case, if investor choose it correctly and get immediate return on stock B, they mostly will continue to keep it due to the up-trend won't stop in short period. Thus, even stock A is show indication on up-trend, they may just ignore it. Anyhow, some investor may decide to switch to stock A with condition that stock B is already up too much or they have a very firm decision to switch due to stock A is much better in term of fundamental and prospect.
Effect: (1) At the end, the performance for the stock A and B will mostly depend on its fundamental and prospect. Need to make a lot of consideration by doing this. The return may less or doesn't much different if miss out the necessary switching. (2) If time the stock trend correctly in all the cases, the return will be much greater than most of the investors. This can be done if you are a great investor with strong mentality management.
Scenario 2:
If investor invested in stock B without immediate return or making loss, they will mostly not switch to stock A (especially the stock price spike up at 10% or more in short period) due to mentality management is not easy to handle in such a condition.
Effect: (1) Miss out the good chance to invest in stock A (cash stuck at stock B). (2) Admit mistake by switch to stock A but will earn much lesser.
Scenario 3:
If you knew stock A is very great in term of fundamental & prospect, very high certainty and will able to provide you a great return (let's say 50%), just invest on it by put more patient on it. This way will be less troublesome in investment decision making.
Effect: You may get the return as per your prediction.
Investment is a selective and subjective decision for investor. Mentality management and the way you handle each situation will be the main contributor to your investment return rate.
Along the investment life, do you face this kind of situation? What is the best way for you to handle it?
Sunday, 12 January 2014
Tuesday, 17 December 2013
Participation Analysis 【参与率分析】
Date: 28-May-12 ~ 17-Dec-13
以去年六月开始分析，外资用了一年的时间继续在累积股值。
大选两个星期过后，外资就很积极地一路减持手上的股值。
从最高峰到7个月后的今天，外资已经把持有的票减持了六成。
少了外资的参与，今天的股市还是照样创新高！感觉现有的股市都是自己搞自己爽，尤其是现在快要接近结帐期。各位基金管理员都尽量交个好业绩来保护自己的饭碗。
猜猜看接下来的股市会如何跑？
Analysis started on last year around Jun-12. Foreign funds are accumulating shares for about 1 year to reach its peak of invested value in Malaysia stock market. 2 weeks after Malaysia General Election, foreign funds are selling their shares aggressively. From its peak until today, foreign funds have disposed about 60% of the shares value.
Without a support from foreign funds, KLCI still able to hit its new high today. I guess the feel good condition is arise from the coming windows dressing effect. It is the time for fund managers to shape up their performance to close the year 2013 account.
Guess what will happen after the windows dressing?
LR - Local Retails 【散户】
LI - Local Institution 【本地基金】
F - Foreign 【外资】
Monday, 2 December 2013
[5070] PRTASCO
【富達集團】【PRTASCO】
公司的背景，我不多说。资料可以从论坛和其他投资管道轻易得到。
让我们直接进入重点吧！
I will direct to the analysis without explain much on the company's business and its background. You can grab the details easily through other investment channels.
基本面分析：(Fundamental Analysis)
1. 过去六年，平均每年在EPS=12sen的水平。大致上来看，生意属于稳定。
2. 派息率都有60%以上。属于高股息公司。
3. 公路建筑和维修，贸易业务，房地产，都有明显的增长。接下来的未来继续看好。
1. In the past 6 years, its average eps is about 12sen. The business looks very stable.
2. Dividend payout ratio is above 60% of eps. It is consider a high dividend yield company.
3. Its construction contract, trading and property development segments are showing good growth. Its prospect expect to be better.
技术面分析：(Technical Analysis)
From IPO until now, it is already listing for 10years. Good prospect is slowly surfacing now. Thus, expecting it will reach RM2 as the first target price. The trend is showing double bottom and follow by great rebound with huge volume.
(From left) The first blue circle is happened during special dividend announcement. 2nd circle is made by share buyback from the company. The horizontal lines in between red and green arrows, is the private placement boundary. In 3rd circle, the share price pick up quickly and fall up even fast without any news in between. I guess the activity is for share accumulation and trap the shorten traders. The last circle with share price gap up and huge volume happened due to the company has been awarded with 1Malaysia Housing construction contract, which is came with a big value.
流动票分析：(Floating share Analysis)
在9-Jul-13，Lembaga Tabung Haji拥有接近公司10%（大概30mil）的票数。直到15-Nov-13，短短4个月，票数持有已经减少到5%以下（大概15.5mil）的票数。在5%持有率以下票数的股东，过后的买卖都不必再向股票交易所交代。
在这段时期，股价的价位一直在1.24-1.54摆横。我预测，在这段时期，Lembaga Tabung Haji卖出的平均价属于RM1.3x。对方以这个平均价来在市场买入Lembaga Tabung Haji的票，必须付出的价值是大概RM40mil。
试问，普通的散户有何能力来收买如此龙大的票数？我预测，主要部分的票，都是由基金或大型投资者买入。
试问，以现有的价买入，投资的风险会有多高？这个答案，大家心里有数。
At 9-Jul-13, Lembaga Tabung Haji is holding close to 10% of company share, which is about 30mil shares. As of 15-Nov-13, its share holding has been fallen below 5% (reduced to 15.5mil shares). After that, any buy sell activity is not compulsory to be announced in Bursa Malaysia.
During this period, the share price is fall between 1.24 - 1.54. I guess, its average selling price is about RM1.3x. In order for the counter parties to absorb its share, RM40mil value or more is a must.
Do you think the normal local retails are able to absorb it? I guess most of the part is done by Investment Funds or big cap investors.
How do you think about the risk if buy at current price? I think you should have an answer for it.
未来重点分析：(Prospects Analysis)
1. 拿到政府公寓工程，价值RM578.5mil。24个月必须完成。预测明年头开工。以15%的盈利率来算，大概平均一年有EPS 12sen。现有业务，如果可以维持去年的整年业绩，代表这个贡献有可能会把公司的盈利增倍（EPS 100%成长）。
2. 公司还再谈着收购印尼的一间气油公司。收购还没完成的原因，主要是因为公司要肯定被收购回来的印尼公司，能够延长（多10年）明年将快要到期的10年合约。如果这题收购能达成，在头4年内，将拥有USD55mil的税前保证盈利。如果税率是25%，将会带来每年大概EPS 7-8sen。
3. 拥有De Centrum 100 英亩总值60 亿（估计）的房屋发展计划，有10-15 年的时间发展。以十年来计算，每年可以制作6 亿的营业额（RM600mil）。
4. 其他新的小工程，如果运作费控制的好，预测能带来大概每年EPS 3-5sen的收入。（12年12月到13年9月的新合约）。
5. 利比亚工程重新开工。之前报销的RM20mil，有望可以从利比亚政府得到赔赏（不清楚是部分还是全部）。但是管理层讲到，接下来在那边开工的开销，不用出一分钱。
6. 2014 Malaysia Budget里，公布发出价值RM4.1bil的乡下基础设施建设项目。其中道路的工程大概有RM1.5bil。如果能够得到以上的合约，都可以带来营业额的增长。
》把这题数学算了一下，觉得很不可思议。既然越算越多！如果以保守的方式去算，好像也不少！简单的数学题我不喜欢做。那样就交给你们自己去算吧！
1. Awarded with RM578.5mil contract value to build 1Malaysia housing and to be complete within 24 months. The work is expected to be start by early of next year. Assume net profit margin is 15%, it will contribute about eps 12sen per year. If the existing business can sustain as per last year, this mean the contribution from this contract is possible to double up its eps. (100% growth in eps)
2. Acquisition on an Indonesia O&G company is still in progress. The pending work is mainly due to the confirmation of contract extension for another 10years for the O&G company that they are going to acquire. If succeed, there will be a profit guarantee before tax for about USD55mil. If the tax rate is 25%, it will roughly contribute about eps 7-8sen.
3. Its De Centrum property development which valued at RM6 billion (estimation) is able to sustain for another 10-15years. By taking 10 years as completion target timeframe, it will able to contribute RM600mil revenue per year for the company.
4. By considering other newly awarded contracts (since Dec-12 until Sep-13) and operation cost is under control, another eps 3-5sen will not be a problem.
5. Company is returning to Libya after halting operations there due to a revolution. Company has written off RM20m in provision in the past two years for the halted operations in Libya. According to MD, Libya is promise to pay back on the provision (not sure is in full or partial amount). Thus, there is no extra expense to be taken out to continue the works there.
6. In 2014 Malaysia Budget, RM4.1bil to be provided for basic rural infrastructure projects, including RM980mil to upgrade 437km of rural road networks nationwide and RM500mil for Pan-Borneo Highway project. If the company manage to get some of the contracts, it will definitely increasing its revenue.
》By making calculation on it, it looks unbelievable. It is a big figure! By making conservative estimation, its still looks great! This mathematics question is too simple for me. Pls do it yourself!
风险考虑：(Risk Consideration)
1. 官司案，如果被告成功，必须陪大概RM10mil的赔款。都是一次性，应该算是一个加码的机会。
2. 股市在高点，外围不稳定。看你是买公司的未来，还是买大市造成股价的变化？
3. 汽油业，是一个不知数。未来能够带来更大的盈利，还是侵蚀掉公司的盈利？外行人都不容易明白。唯一的保障就是那个税前保证盈利。如果到时这个东西也有变化，自己要好好思考思考了。
1. Company is under a court case. If lose it, penalty will be RM10mil. But it will be one time deal and should be a opportunity to buy at low price.
2. Share market remains at high side and exposing to unstable macro in worldwide. Just think about whether you are investing in a company with good prospect or betting for a better offer that MAY arise from market crash or panic sell?
3. O&G sector is not a one plus one equation. There is a lot of unknown especially for outsider. Layman may not able to estimate it will boost up earning for company or an erosion to the earning. The profit guarantee before tax is the only point that can ease my mind in short term. If this can't help, you should think able your next step.
关于汽油业的新闻：(Some news regarding O&G sector)
【2013年10月02日】
富达：待符合条件 稍延收购印尼油气商
【FY13Q3季报】
Source: http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/edmswebh.nsf/all/AEF25E8E697F41E248257C41005D934B/$File/PB%20Q3%202013%20Notes.pdf (page 10)
公司的背景，我不多说。资料可以从论坛和其他投资管道轻易得到。
让我们直接进入重点吧！
I will direct to the analysis without explain much on the company's business and its background. You can grab the details easily through other investment channels.
基本面分析：(Fundamental Analysis)
1. 过去六年，平均每年在EPS=12sen的水平。大致上来看，生意属于稳定。
2. 派息率都有60%以上。属于高股息公司。
3. 公路建筑和维修，贸易业务，房地产，都有明显的增长。接下来的未来继续看好。
1. In the past 6 years, its average eps is about 12sen. The business looks very stable.
2. Dividend payout ratio is above 60% of eps. It is consider a high dividend yield company.
3. Its construction contract, trading and property development segments are showing good growth. Its prospect expect to be better.
 |
| PL, BS & CF |
 |
| Quarterly EPS |
 |
| Segment Report |
技术面分析：(Technical Analysis)
From IPO until now, it is already listing for 10years. Good prospect is slowly surfacing now. Thus, expecting it will reach RM2 as the first target price. The trend is showing double bottom and follow by great rebound with huge volume.
(From left) The first blue circle is happened during special dividend announcement. 2nd circle is made by share buyback from the company. The horizontal lines in between red and green arrows, is the private placement boundary. In 3rd circle, the share price pick up quickly and fall up even fast without any news in between. I guess the activity is for share accumulation and trap the shorten traders. The last circle with share price gap up and huge volume happened due to the company has been awarded with 1Malaysia Housing construction contract, which is came with a big value.
在9-Jul-13，Lembaga Tabung Haji拥有接近公司10%（大概30mil）的票数。直到15-Nov-13，短短4个月，票数持有已经减少到5%以下（大概15.5mil）的票数。在5%持有率以下票数的股东，过后的买卖都不必再向股票交易所交代。
在这段时期，股价的价位一直在1.24-1.54摆横。我预测，在这段时期，Lembaga Tabung Haji卖出的平均价属于RM1.3x。对方以这个平均价来在市场买入Lembaga Tabung Haji的票，必须付出的价值是大概RM40mil。
试问，普通的散户有何能力来收买如此龙大的票数？我预测，主要部分的票，都是由基金或大型投资者买入。
试问，以现有的价买入，投资的风险会有多高？这个答案，大家心里有数。
At 9-Jul-13, Lembaga Tabung Haji is holding close to 10% of company share, which is about 30mil shares. As of 15-Nov-13, its share holding has been fallen below 5% (reduced to 15.5mil shares). After that, any buy sell activity is not compulsory to be announced in Bursa Malaysia.
During this period, the share price is fall between 1.24 - 1.54. I guess, its average selling price is about RM1.3x. In order for the counter parties to absorb its share, RM40mil value or more is a must.
Do you think the normal local retails are able to absorb it? I guess most of the part is done by Investment Funds or big cap investors.
How do you think about the risk if buy at current price? I think you should have an answer for it.
未来重点分析：(Prospects Analysis)
1. 拿到政府公寓工程，价值RM578.5mil。24个月必须完成。预测明年头开工。以15%的盈利率来算，大概平均一年有EPS 12sen。现有业务，如果可以维持去年的整年业绩，代表这个贡献有可能会把公司的盈利增倍（EPS 100%成长）。
2. 公司还再谈着收购印尼的一间气油公司。收购还没完成的原因，主要是因为公司要肯定被收购回来的印尼公司，能够延长（多10年）明年将快要到期的10年合约。如果这题收购能达成，在头4年内，将拥有USD55mil的税前保证盈利。如果税率是25%，将会带来每年大概EPS 7-8sen。
3. 拥有De Centrum 100 英亩总值60 亿（估计）的房屋发展计划，有10-15 年的时间发展。以十年来计算，每年可以制作6 亿的营业额（RM600mil）。
4. 其他新的小工程，如果运作费控制的好，预测能带来大概每年EPS 3-5sen的收入。（12年12月到13年9月的新合约）。
5. 利比亚工程重新开工。之前报销的RM20mil，有望可以从利比亚政府得到赔赏（不清楚是部分还是全部）。但是管理层讲到，接下来在那边开工的开销，不用出一分钱。
6. 2014 Malaysia Budget里，公布发出价值RM4.1bil的乡下基础设施建设项目。其中道路的工程大概有RM1.5bil。如果能够得到以上的合约，都可以带来营业额的增长。
》把这题数学算了一下，觉得很不可思议。既然越算越多！如果以保守的方式去算，好像也不少！简单的数学题我不喜欢做。那样就交给你们自己去算吧！
1. Awarded with RM578.5mil contract value to build 1Malaysia housing and to be complete within 24 months. The work is expected to be start by early of next year. Assume net profit margin is 15%, it will contribute about eps 12sen per year. If the existing business can sustain as per last year, this mean the contribution from this contract is possible to double up its eps. (100% growth in eps)
2. Acquisition on an Indonesia O&G company is still in progress. The pending work is mainly due to the confirmation of contract extension for another 10years for the O&G company that they are going to acquire. If succeed, there will be a profit guarantee before tax for about USD55mil. If the tax rate is 25%, it will roughly contribute about eps 7-8sen.
3. Its De Centrum property development which valued at RM6 billion (estimation) is able to sustain for another 10-15years. By taking 10 years as completion target timeframe, it will able to contribute RM600mil revenue per year for the company.
4. By considering other newly awarded contracts (since Dec-12 until Sep-13) and operation cost is under control, another eps 3-5sen will not be a problem.
5. Company is returning to Libya after halting operations there due to a revolution. Company has written off RM20m in provision in the past two years for the halted operations in Libya. According to MD, Libya is promise to pay back on the provision (not sure is in full or partial amount). Thus, there is no extra expense to be taken out to continue the works there.
6. In 2014 Malaysia Budget, RM4.1bil to be provided for basic rural infrastructure projects, including RM980mil to upgrade 437km of rural road networks nationwide and RM500mil for Pan-Borneo Highway project. If the company manage to get some of the contracts, it will definitely increasing its revenue.
》By making calculation on it, it looks unbelievable. It is a big figure! By making conservative estimation, its still looks great! This mathematics question is too simple for me. Pls do it yourself!
风险考虑：(Risk Consideration)
1. 官司案，如果被告成功，必须陪大概RM10mil的赔款。都是一次性，应该算是一个加码的机会。
2. 股市在高点，外围不稳定。看你是买公司的未来，还是买大市造成股价的变化？
3. 汽油业，是一个不知数。未来能够带来更大的盈利，还是侵蚀掉公司的盈利？外行人都不容易明白。唯一的保障就是那个税前保证盈利。如果到时这个东西也有变化，自己要好好思考思考了。
1. Company is under a court case. If lose it, penalty will be RM10mil. But it will be one time deal and should be a opportunity to buy at low price.
2. Share market remains at high side and exposing to unstable macro in worldwide. Just think about whether you are investing in a company with good prospect or betting for a better offer that MAY arise from market crash or panic sell?
3. O&G sector is not a one plus one equation. There is a lot of unknown especially for outsider. Layman may not able to estimate it will boost up earning for company or an erosion to the earning. The profit guarantee before tax is the only point that can ease my mind in short term. If this can't help, you should think able your next step.
关于汽油业的新闻：(Some news regarding O&G sector)
【2013年10月02日】
富达：待符合条件 稍延收购印尼油气商
【FY13Q3季报】
Sunday, 10 November 2013
[7122] YFG
之前买入YFG【裕丰】纯属是投机。毕竟是投机，所以当时只看2013年里的资料。通过一位网友讲到2012年得到的生物再生能源合约过后，自己也跟着深入研究它。
Basically, I bought in YFG is just for short-term speculation and purely study the details for year 2013. Someone has alerted me about the biomass contract (awarded in Jul-12) in my blog. Due to this, I have made a study on it.
发现这个生物再生能源合约可不简单。瞬间，自己觉得这次的买入不再是投机了。反而是一题很不错的投资。考虑了公司的未来与风险对比，自己再也找不到一个理由不去投资它。
【裕丰】是一个仙股，也是建筑股。对他有兴趣的人应该不多。我就挑战多数人不做的投资来考考个人的眼光。
The biomass contract looks impressive. Feel like I should not treat this buy as speculation, but it is worth to treat as a good investment. After considered the possible of risk vs return, I found no reason why should I avoid it for longer term of investment. YFG is a penny stock and also involve in construction business. This should make most of the investor avoid to invest it. Anyway, I would like to make a challenge by invest on it and to prove my own judgement.
写以下的分析来回答哪位网友的看法：
做建筑生意的公司，不必太在意去预测短期的业绩。需要看的东西是工程几时完成和能影响业绩的数目。然后就拉长来看（一两年后的效果）和耐心的去等。
APSB是从TNB得到这个13MW
Biomass Power Generation Plant的工程，合约是21年。建厂的这个责任，APSB给了YFG的子公司做，工程价值是RM110mil。建成后，YFG的子公司也得到五年的管理和保养合约（不包燃烧材料），每年RM4.9mil的价值，到时再由APSB决定会不会跟YFG续约（RM4.9mil x 110%）。
建厂的附带款条件是，部分钱以股份来交换（RM17mil）。其他，是APSB通过Term
Loan（RM88mil）的贷款和APSB的股东出小部分钱（RM5mil）来买APSB的股份。APSB会以五个阶段来发出17mil ICPS shares给YFG。整个工程，会在24个月内完成。最新的季报讲，工程会在Q2FY15完成。这代表，2013年尾已经开工了。通常，付款都有credit term的限期，可能是30/60/90天。
其实，Q1FY14最新的季报，Segment
Reporting，你可以看到Customer
A贡献了RM19,738,452。这个数目，就是第一期Term
Loan付款的数目。这个数目，加上股东的付款和部分的ICPS share就是等于24.5mil。
个人看法，这个合约能带给公司一个稳定的收入，毕竟合约是固定的数目。只要公司能够好好控制建筑，管理和保养的费用，赚多少都是在公司的预测范围。公司未来的大方向是要制造一个比较稳定的收入。如果你是老板，这个工程不能达到应有的效应，你会接吗？肯定不会是为了要得到合约而接来做吧？
这个合约值得RM110mil，管理层预测税前盈利率是大概20%。代表，这两年内的收入是RM22mil。比如，扣除25%的税，净盈利是RM16.5mil。这等于每季有RM2.06mil的净盈利（除8）。。。好像很高？不懂是不是还须扣除其他行政开支。如果要保守来算，就给他10-15%税前盈利率好了。要记得，工程完成后，还有每年价值RM4.9mil管理和保养的稳定合约。我预测，管理和保养的合约会很好赚。所以，盈利率应该会比较高。
单单讲到这个生物再生能源工程，看来也对公司的贡献也不错。还有其他手上的工程的收入。剩下的分析，就交给大家慢慢去思考思考。。。
My reply (analysis) to Carson88's comment:
For company involve in construction business, I will not predict the business result in short-term, but will look on its contract's value and completion time-frame. Follow by judge the impact from the contracts within 1-2 years. Then, just buy in and wait patiently.
TNB awarded a 21 years contract on 13MW Biomass Power Generation Plant project to APSB. Whereby, APSB awarded the construction, operation and maintenances contract to YFG. Pls see the details below:
"A fully owned subsidiary of YFG has on 10th July 2012 entered into an Operating and Maintenance Agreement (O&M Agreement) with Agni Power Sdn. Bhd. to undertake the operation, maintenance and repair services of the 13MW Biomass Power Generation Plant with 10MV exportable energy to be built, production and supply of electric power to Tenaga Nasional Berhad for a term of Five (5) years from the date on which APSB shall have certified to YFG under the Engineering, Procurement and Construction Contract (EPC Contract) by means of a Substantial Completion Certificate that APSB has taken over that part of the Proposed Power Plant required to be completed from YFG at an Initial Maintenance Fee amounting to RM4.9 million per annum.
The Initial Maintenance Fee shall include the labour costs, power consumption, water consumption but shall exclude the supply of raw empty fruit bunches of oil palm trees which shall be used as fuel for the Proposed Power Plant and insurances for the Proposed Power Plant.
The parties agree that One (1) year prior to the expiry of the Term, APSB shall have the right to determine whether to further renew the Term and the Maintenance Fee shall be reviewed and increased by a rate of ten per centum (10%) of the Initial Maintenance Fee."
The deal between YFG and APSB is as below, which partial payment (RM17mil) will go through issue of ICPS to YFG. (Represents 19% of the total issued and paid up capital of APSB.)
The power plant construction has started on Q4FY12 and will complete on Q2FY15. The first payment has been reflected on YFG's balance sheet at Q1FY14 (refer to segment reporting of the quarter report).
The rationale for entering into the O&M Agreement is to fit into YFG’s strategy to diversify its business by providing operation and maintenance services in order to bring in recurring revenue. Once the Proposed Power Plant has been successfully completed and commissioned, the O&M Agreement is expected to bring in recurring revenue which will contribute positively to YFG’s future consolidated earnings and net assets.
The management expects to derive an expected pre-tax margin of approximately 20% arising from EPC contract, representing an estimated pre-tax profit of approximately RM22mil over the 2-year duration of the proposed project. Let's say if the tax is 25%, the total net profit will be RM16.5mil or equivalent to RM2.06mil quarterly (total 8 quarters). It looks a lot? Not sure whether still need to minus off the administration fee. To be conservative, we can give it at 10%-15% discount. To be remind that there will be another RM4.9mil/year arise from maintenance work as recurring income for the company. Normally, maintenance work will come with good profit margin.
Purely look on this biomass contract, it will definitely bring a good impact on initial and recurring income for company. What if by considering other on hand contracts awarded at 2013, valued at more than RM500mil? I will let you all to think about it...
The parties agree that One (1) year prior to the expiry of the Term, APSB shall have the right to determine whether to further renew the Term and the Maintenance Fee shall be reviewed and increased by a rate of ten per centum (10%) of the Initial Maintenance Fee."
The deal between YFG and APSB is as below, which partial payment (RM17mil) will go through issue of ICPS to YFG. (Represents 19% of the total issued and paid up capital of APSB.)
 |
| YFG - Biomass Contract's Payment Details |
The power plant construction has started on Q4FY12 and will complete on Q2FY15. The first payment has been reflected on YFG's balance sheet at Q1FY14 (refer to segment reporting of the quarter report).
The rationale for entering into the O&M Agreement is to fit into YFG’s strategy to diversify its business by providing operation and maintenance services in order to bring in recurring revenue. Once the Proposed Power Plant has been successfully completed and commissioned, the O&M Agreement is expected to bring in recurring revenue which will contribute positively to YFG’s future consolidated earnings and net assets.
The management expects to derive an expected pre-tax margin of approximately 20% arising from EPC contract, representing an estimated pre-tax profit of approximately RM22mil over the 2-year duration of the proposed project. Let's say if the tax is 25%, the total net profit will be RM16.5mil or equivalent to RM2.06mil quarterly (total 8 quarters). It looks a lot? Not sure whether still need to minus off the administration fee. To be conservative, we can give it at 10%-15% discount. To be remind that there will be another RM4.9mil/year arise from maintenance work as recurring income for the company. Normally, maintenance work will come with good profit margin.
Purely look on this biomass contract, it will definitely bring a good impact on initial and recurring income for company. What if by considering other on hand contracts awarded at 2013, valued at more than RM500mil? I will let you all to think about it...
资料来源（Source）：
之前关于【裕丰】的分析（Previous analysis for YFG）：【基本投机篇：YFG】
Wednesday, 23 October 2013
基本投机篇：YFG
平时除了投资在基本好的股，偶尔也会投机在基本不超烂和看到有一点甜头的股。只要那些甜头能带来比较大的胜算，我还是会买入少许治手痒。这样的股，基本就一眼带过。重点都是做甜头的调查。
YFG的前名为PJI。主要做建筑和房地产的生意。
甜头如下：
1. 手中拥有超过5亿的工程。去年整年的营利才1.35亿。公司也正在投标着7亿多的工程。
2. 咸鱼翻身的效应。
3. 技术面。
风险如下：
1. 公司的现金低，工程收不到钱分分钟会导致公司黄飞鸿收档。
2. 有些工程大，限期又短。不能准时交工，随时中罚钱。
3. 没股息，股价变死水一般，到头来什么都得不到反而错失投资其它好股的机会。
投资在好基本的股，风险都不能避免。所以，投机在基本不稳的股，风险就变得更大。还是老土的再说一句，买卖自负！
Aside from invest in good fundamental stock, I do buy stock for speculation purpose. But it must come with reasonable requirements and the stock must not to be a company with very bad result. For this kind of speculation with FA, just take a brief look on fundamental figure will do. Focus is more on some key-point which is able bring up the share price.
YFG, known as PJI in the past, is mainly doing construction and property business.
Below are the key-points to speculate:
1. On hand contract with more than RM500mil. Last fiscal year's revenue is only RM135mil. Company is still actively tendering for more jobs worth about RM700mil.
2. The effect of salt fish revival.
3. Technical chart looks good.
Below are the risks:
1. Cash level is very low. If receivable unable turn into cash during or after project completion, company may face bankruptcy.
2. Certain on hand contracts come with big value and short completion time-frame. If job fail to meet the timeline, company may be penalised for late delivery.
3. No dividend. If the share price remain flat for long time, you may get nothing and also miss out opportunity to invest in other good stocks.
We have to face risk even invest in strong fundamental stock. Thus, the risk will be greater for speculation. Buy at your own risk!
YFG的前名为PJI。主要做建筑和房地产的生意。
甜头如下：
1. 手中拥有超过5亿的工程。去年整年的营利才1.35亿。公司也正在投标着7亿多的工程。
2. 咸鱼翻身的效应。
3. 技术面。
风险如下：
1. 公司的现金低，工程收不到钱分分钟会导致公司黄飞鸿收档。
2. 有些工程大，限期又短。不能准时交工，随时中罚钱。
3. 没股息，股价变死水一般，到头来什么都得不到反而错失投资其它好股的机会。
投资在好基本的股，风险都不能避免。所以，投机在基本不稳的股，风险就变得更大。还是老土的再说一句，买卖自负！
Aside from invest in good fundamental stock, I do buy stock for speculation purpose. But it must come with reasonable requirements and the stock must not to be a company with very bad result. For this kind of speculation with FA, just take a brief look on fundamental figure will do. Focus is more on some key-point which is able bring up the share price.
YFG, known as PJI in the past, is mainly doing construction and property business.
Below are the key-points to speculate:
1. On hand contract with more than RM500mil. Last fiscal year's revenue is only RM135mil. Company is still actively tendering for more jobs worth about RM700mil.
2. The effect of salt fish revival.
3. Technical chart looks good.
Below are the risks:
1. Cash level is very low. If receivable unable turn into cash during or after project completion, company may face bankruptcy.
2. Certain on hand contracts come with big value and short completion time-frame. If job fail to meet the timeline, company may be penalised for late delivery.
3. No dividend. If the share price remain flat for long time, you may get nothing and also miss out opportunity to invest in other good stocks.
We have to face risk even invest in strong fundamental stock. Thus, the risk will be greater for speculation. Buy at your own risk!
YFG to build affordable homes (9-Sep-13)
Friday, 11 October 2013
UMSNGB: 卖掉香港的子公司 (Disposal of fully owned subsidiary in HK)
给一个简单的结论：香港的这个子公司，接下来的未来都不看好。卖掉它，不但可以避免每季的亏损，还可以挤出更多的现金来发展公司的生意。简直是个天大的好消息！
Provide a brief summary: Disposal of this fully owned subsidiary (HK), shall avoid further loss incur to the company as well as rise up the capital for CAPEX purpose. It is definitely a great news to the company!
Provide a brief summary: Disposal of this fully owned subsidiary (HK), shall avoid further loss incur to the company as well as rise up the capital for CAPEX purpose. It is definitely a great news to the company!
TRANSACTIONS (CHAPTER 10 OF LISTING REQUIREMENTS): RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS UMS-NEIKEN GROUP BERHAD ("UMS-Neiken" or "the Company") Proposed Disposal by UMS-Neiken of Its Entire Shareholding in High Project Limited, a Wholly-Owned Subsidiary of the Company
| UMS-NEIKEN GROUP BERHAD |
| Type | Announcement |
| Subject | TRANSACTIONS (CHAPTER 10 OF LISTING REQUIREMENTS) RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS |
| Description | UMS-NEIKEN GROUP BERHAD ("UMS-Neiken" or "the Company") Proposed Disposal by UMS-Neiken of Its Entire Shareholding in High Project Limited, a Wholly-Owned Subsidiary of the Company |
Please refer to the attachment for details of the announcement.
This announcement is dated 11 October 2013.
| |
Announcement Info
| Company Name | UMS-NEIKEN GROUP BERHAD |
| Stock Name | UMSNGB |
| Date Announced | 11 Oct 2013 |
| Category | General Announcement |
| Reference No | CA-131011-57450 |
Thursday, 10 October 2013
UMSNGB: 噢亿噢 O.E.O.
遵守自己的承诺来做个交代。之前的调整，我还是一直守。也答应适当的时候，把盈利放出来。这将会是我第一次和最后一次的买卖交代。改次跟随买入的人，还是那句，买卖自负。
股票投资的回报，不是一朝一日的事。
买入前，做功课。买入后，耐心等。思想乱，回头想。
恭喜那些有耐心跟我一起守票的战友！大家现在都属于不败之身的地步了。接下来的战场，就由你自己去学习和体会。。。
Just to keep my promise. I still keeping the share during recent market adjustment. As I mentioned, I will post up the profit when the time is right. This will be my first and last announcement. In future, for those who follow to buy in, you shall always trade at your own risk.
Don't be too greedy and hurry to aim for instant profit. You won't able to make it for every time.
Do your homework before buy in. Be patient after you buy in. When get panic, goes back to the starting point and re-think again.
Congratulation to my allies who dare to hold and ride through the panic moment! Your position now is very very safe. Just go ahead to fight and learn the coming battle strategy by your own...
股票投资的回报，不是一朝一日的事。
买入前，做功课。买入后，耐心等。思想乱，回头想。
恭喜那些有耐心跟我一起守票的战友！大家现在都属于不败之身的地步了。接下来的战场，就由你自己去学习和体会。。。
Just to keep my promise. I still keeping the share during recent market adjustment. As I mentioned, I will post up the profit when the time is right. This will be my first and last announcement. In future, for those who follow to buy in, you shall always trade at your own risk.
Don't be too greedy and hurry to aim for instant profit. You won't able to make it for every time.
Do your homework before buy in. Be patient after you buy in. When get panic, goes back to the starting point and re-think again.
Congratulation to my allies who dare to hold and ride through the panic moment! Your position now is very very safe. Just go ahead to fight and learn the coming battle strategy by your own...
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