Nuffnang

Saturday, 5 July 2014

[0113] MMSV

注(ATTN):
笔者管理的资金,开始介入的价最低为24sen。最后一次的买价在30sen(少量)。以昨天的收市价@29.5sen,买入价的回酬最少已经超过10%。因为利益的冲突,早前完整的分析资料只能供应给部分的特殊投资者。所以,往后的分析报告,笔者也只能在事后才公开给大家做参考。
The fund under my management has started to buy in at 24sen as the lowest price. The last transaction done is at 30sen but with less invested capital. According to yesterday closing price @ 29.5sen, the invested capital return has exceeded 10% or more.Due to conflict of interest, the analysis report will only shared to certain special investors during early stage. This practise will be remain no change in future. The analysis report will only publish for public reference afterwards.

公司的背景:(Company Background)

MMSV成立于2004年3月29日为一家私营有限责任公司。过后被转换成为大马上市公司,于2004年10月19日。其IPO上市价格为发行每股27sen。
MMSV成立为MMSV集团上市在大马的ACE交易场所。(前名为MESDAQ交易场所)。目前,MMSV有2个子公司名为Micro Modular System Sdn Bhd ("MMS") and Evolusys Technologies (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd ("Evolusys")。 MMS是设计和制造工业自动化,以及设计精密模具套,夹具及固定装置。 Evolusys正在开发的硬件和软件自动化和测试解决方案。

MMS Ventures Berhad ("MMSV") was incorporated in Malaysia under the Companies Act, 1965 on 29 March 2004 as a private limited company. MMSV was converted into a public limited company and assumed its present name on 19 October 2004.

MMSV was established as the investment holding company of MMSV Group in conjunction with the listing of MMSV on the ACE Market (Formerly known as MESDAQ Market). Currently, MMSV has 2 subsidiary companies namely Micro Modular System Sdn Bhd ("MMS") and Evolusys Technologies (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd ("Evolusys"). MMS is designing and manufacturing industrial automation, as well as designing precision die sets, jigs and fixtures. Evolusys is developing hardware and software for automation and test solutions.

http://www.mmsv.com.my/
http://www.youtube.com/user/MicroModularSystem
https://www.facebook.com/MicroModularSystem

每季业绩:(Quarterly Results)

自2005年上市到2012年,公司的生意在这7年里毫无起色。在2013年,公司终于成功带来历史性的新突破。营业收入和净利润都达到了高峰点。主要的功劳是管理层在过去2年里,成功地转移公司的业务重心从半导体到LED的产品线。此外,客户也不断增加他们的需求而下单。根据公司,LED产业仍然以稳健成长的步伐。

The company is struggling in its business since 2005 until 2012, which is almost 7 years. In year 2013, company successfully hit the highest number in both revenue and net profit in his history. It is part of the effort paid off after management switched their business focus from Semiconductor to LEDs product lines in the past 2 years. Also, the achievement is coupling with the increasing customers’ demand and enquiries flowing since last year. According to company, LED industry is still growing at a steady pace, indicating that there is still a strong demand for customized machines designed to provide solutions to customers’ specific manufacturing processes.

FY2013: EPS 3.08 sen | FY2014: Dividend 1sen

Share Price (sen) 25 30
PE 8.12 9.74
DY 4.0% 3.3%



每年业绩:(Yearly Results)
- 净现金公司。 (现金= RM8.46mil 对比 总负债=RM6.45mil) 
- 在2013年,累计收入已经转为正数。笔者认为这是公司重新在今年支付股息的原因之一。 
- 流动比率(流动资产/流动负债)为3.34。这证明该公司是非常健康。可以在任何危机中,至少能维持生意的运作多几年。

- It is a net cash company. (Cash = RM8.46mil vs Total liabilities = RM6.45mil)
- Accumulated earning has turned around to be positive in 2013. I think this is one of the reasons why company is started to pay out dividend in this year.
- Current ratio (Current asset / Current liability) is 3.34. This proved the company is very health and can sustain very well in any crisis for years.


资本支出,折旧,存货撇销:(CAPEX, Depreciation, Inventory Written Off)
- 不需要付出很多资本支出来推动去年的增长。 
- 折旧率低。因此,公司不会从这个方面削弱未来的利润。 
- 2012年和2009年全年,公司面临亏损情况。主要原因是存货的报销。这个问题是否会重复在未来?笔者猜测,这些部分的亏损是当公司转移业务的重心(从半导体到LED)而造成。所以,笔者认为不会或几率很小。

- There is not many CAPEX needed to push the last year’s growth.
- Depreciation is low. Thus, it should not to erode future profit from this aspect.
- In Year 2012 & 2009, company was making loss. It is mainly due to inventory written down/off. This is a concern whether it will repeat in future? I guess this arise when company was switched focus from Semiconductor to LEDs business and it involved of a lot scrap in old technology used for Semiconductor business. Thus, I think it will not happen again or the chance is very low.

应收账及减值:(Receivables & Impairment)
- 在2013年,没有减值。2012年有RM305k的减值,不多。 
- 应收款项的情况还算健康。

- No impairment in 2013. There is RM305k impaired in 2012, but not many.
- Receivables condition is ok.

地理分部业绩:(Geographic Segment Results)
- 在2013年,马来西亚和亚洲市场的销售改善度相当不错。 
- Q1FY2014是销售额还好。销售额预计将逐渐回升。

- Malaysia & Asia markets improved very well in year 2013.
- Q1FY2014 is doing reasonable at the moments. Sales are expected to pick up gradually.


股本变动及派息纪录:(Capital Change & Dividend History)
- 公司今年重新分发股息。股息为1sen。

- Company is started to repay shareholder with dividend this year. It is 1sen for FY2014.


三十大股东:(Top 30 Shareholders)
- Metronic Glabal在16日4月2014年不再是公司的大股东。谁买把那些票买起来了?为何在公司的业绩开始好转时放手?
- 在最新的三十大股东名单里,Metronic Global的踪影完全看不见了。第三十大的票数为870,200股。

- Metronic Global has ceased to be a substantial shareholder and announced on 16-Apr-14. Who has stolen the shares? Why Metronic Global quit as the company performance is improving?
- From the latest shareholding status (as of 17-Jun-14), Metronic Global is not even in the top 30 shareholders list, which the minimum share for the 30th shareholder is 870,200 shares.




公司的展望:(Company’s Prospect)

- 2013年报 (Annual Report 2013)






- Q1FY2014 季报(Quarterly Report)


- 以下的文章,可以知道公司接下来的重要展望。
- Below news providing information regarding the company’s prospect
16-Jun-14            Penang LED tester device makers' charged up
Ø  According to Digitimes Research, the global LED lighting market size will reach US$25.82bil this year or a market penetration rate of 23.4%, driven by the growth in demand for light bulbs, tubes and directional lamps.

With pricing trending downward, the annual LED lighting output value will grow 38.8%,” the Digitimes Research report added.

Ø  MMS Venture managing director T.K. Sia said the group had secured over RM20mil worth of orders from US multinational corporations in Asia and directly from the US for the first nine months of 2014.

Delivery of the test equipment will be fulfilled by the end the third quarter.

“The orders secured should help the group to boost its performance for the 2014 fiscal year ending in December, which should see double-digit growth in sales compared with a year ago,” Sia said.

竞争对手:(Competitors)
- ELSOFT(0090)和PENTA(7160)两间上市公司也有相关的LED业务。近期也从客户收到很不错的订单。 
- ELSOFT是一家具有良好的基本面,也有派息习惯的公司。但它的短期股价看起来完全估值应有的价值了。 
- PENTA也是一家近年转移业务重心的公司,从硬盘业务去LED相关业务。与MMSV相比,其基本面缺乏吸引力。2008年之后,没有派息,但其股价现在已经达到过去4年的高峰点。 
- MMSV现有的条件都比以上两间公司来的吸引。最便宜,股息最高,业绩成长率的肯定性高。其他两家公司的PE都超过20。
- 以以上的因素作为参考点,为何市场先生只给MMSV在单数位的PE?

- Both ELSOFT (0090) and PENTA (7160) are doing LEDs related business and receiving good orders from customers.
- ELSOFT is a company with good fundamental and also paying dividend. But its share price is seem like fully valued for now.
- PENTA is a company switching their focus from HDD market to LEDs and Sensors related business. Its fundamental is less attractive compared with MMSV. Yet, there is no dividend payout after 2008. But its share price now is reaching its peak for the past 4 years.
- MMSV is much attractive compared with both mentioned companies. It is much cheaper, dividend yield is higher and high certainty on the result growth. ELSOFT and PENTA are valued at above PE>20 now.
- With above reasons, why MMSV should still value at single digit PE?

FY2014业绩预测:(Estimation for FY2014’s result)

Q1: Revenue = RM5mil. NP = 0.776mil. EPS = 0.48sen.
Q2: Unknown
Q3: Revenue = RM20mil. If NP margin=16%, NP=RM3.2mil, EPS=3.2mil / 163mil (nos)=1.96sen
Q4: Unknown
Total EPS = 0.48 + 1.96 + (Q2 + Q4)EPS = 2.44 + (Q2 + Q4)EPS

Assume (Q2 + Q4)EPS = 0.56sen | FY2014 EPS = 3.0sen => PE = 25sen/3.0sen = 8.33 (zero grow?)
> If PE=18, Share price = 54sen
> If PE=15, Share price = 45sen
> If PE=10, Share price = 30sen 《 预测的股价底线。(Predict as the bottom line for share price)
Assume (Q2 + Q4)EPS = 1.06sen | FY2014 EPS = 3.5sen => PE = 25sen/3.5sen = 7.14
> If PE=18, Share price = 63sen
> If PE=15, Share price = 52.5sen
> If PE=10, Share price = 35sen
Assume (Q2 + Q4)EPS = 1.56sen | FY2014 EPS = 4.0sen => PE = 25sen/4.0sen = 6.24
> If PE=18, Share price = 72sen
> If PE=15, Share price = 60sen
> If PE=10, Share price = 40sen

If dividend payout maintain at 1sen,
> DY = 1sen/25sen = 4.0%
> DY = 1sen/30sen = 3.3%
If dividend payout increase to 1.5sen,
> DY = 1.5sen/25sen = 6.0%
> DY = 1.5sen/30sen = 5.0%

买点:(Buy Points)
1,业务开始回升。事实证明,收入和每股盈利增长。 
2,肯定在手上的RM20mil订单。预计2014年度业绩将超过2013年度。 
3,开始给股息及相当不错的股息率。 
4,单位数估值太便宜,​​尤其是给予仙股。 
5,LED相关业务还在强劲的增长趋势。

1. Business is started to pick up. It proved with revenue and eps growth.
2. RM20mil order on hand for Q3 delivery is confirmed. Expect FY2014 performance will surpass FY2013.
3. Started to pay dividend and quite attractive in term of dividend yield at this price.
4. Single digit valuation is too cheap especially for penny stock.
5. LED lighting business is in aggressive momentum growth.

弱点:(Weak Points)
1,意料以外的库存报销再次发生。 
2,似乎是一个中等门槛的业务和众多的竞争对手。 
3,小公司的业绩和成长率波动大。

1. Unexpected inventory written down/off repeat again.
2. Seem like a low barrier business and many competitors.
3. High volatility on the business sales and growth for a small cap company.

总结:(Summary)
正当我在研究着这个“仙”股,我的一个感觉就是很惊讶。觉得它是不可思议的低估!基本上,大部分“仙”股的市盈率(PE)都属于不理智的。如果以平常心去看“仙”股的基本面,你也不会对他们感得有兴趣。
MMSV是一个令人难以置信和不可抗拒的投资选择。大概研究后,我也没想太多,就立刻下单了。以我个人的经验,如果此公司的业绩能够维持或成功在未来的1-2年内扩大其盈利,并慷慨地增加其派息率至2sen,我相信到时市场先生会把他重估到至少每股50sen! 
此外,照明企业文化和技术正在改变,渐渐把更多的产品加上LED功能。我很期待和看好这个LED行业,并期望它会继续处于爆炸性的增长。

When I’m looking on this penny stock, I’m so surprise that it is so undervalued! Basically, most of the penny stock’s PE will goes crazy and you will not have appetite to buy it if looking on its balance sheet and overall fundamental figure.
MMSV is an unbelievable and irresistible offer to me. Without think twice, I placed my order immediately on it. I bet, if company able to sustain and further grow its business in coming 1-2 years and be generous to increase its dividend payout to 2sen, I’m looking the stock to be revalued by Mr Market with at least 50sen!

Furthermore, the lighting business culture and technology is changing and divert to products with LED feature. I’m looking good in this LED industry and expect it will blooming greater in coming future.

技术分析:(Technical Analysis)



附录:(Appendix)

16-Jun-14 | Penang LED tester device makers' charged up

4-Jun-14 | Global Semiconductor Sales Increase in April; Sustained Growth Projected for 2014 & 2015

5-May-14 | Global Semiconductor Industry Posts Highest-Ever First Quarter Sales

13-Mar-14 | 2014 global high brightness LED market, trends and shipment forecast

25-Jan-14 | MMS Ventures looks to bounce back
“One important market is the demand to test chip-on-board (COB) LEDs that have a very high brightness and are used in general lighting, like street lamps.
“This segment generates about 30% of the group’s business. The group’s LED business generates about 70% of group revenue annually.

1-Dec-13 | Outdoor Lighting: London makes LED street light plans; US and UK projects

2-Oct-13 | Cree puts most light into smallest lighting LED

1-Oct-13 | Cree, Philips Lumileds, and Luminus Devices extend COB LED technology

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

well written article TS and congrats on your gains. appreciate the translate from Chinese to English and if possible can translate the TA in english as well? thanks in advance

TS S said...

Technical chart revised with english comments.

Anonymous said...

Thank You TS for the English translate. Please correct me as I'm not well verse in chart and looking at it the support is at .29 and needs to hold that for continue uptrend even though it has been down 3 days with lower volume and as long as it don't break .29 it is good to accumulate on weakness for long term holding? Thanks

TS S said...

Technical chart is just a reference for me. It can manipulate by someone, by market sentimental, by profit taking activity, etc. I dare not to answer your question as I'm not a great guru in technical. I will only value a stock according to its fundamental. Majority of the FA investors will always be the winner in long run compared to technical trader, unless you are a genius in technical, unless you are investing in bearish market.

Technical trader can't continuous trade with massive growing capital (unless you are those big guys). FA investor can continuous invest with the massive growing capital like warren buffet. If there is exceptional case, I would say only few of them in the world.

I will make mistake even with fundamental analysis. I'm worse in technical investing. Thus, I choose the better me in making decision according to FA. Sorry for making annoying long statement. Pls think about it.

Anonymous said...

Thanks TS for your fast reply and appreciate your comment. Will continue to buy on weakness and hoping for good set of results in coming quarters.Cheers

谭振聪 said...

虫哥,where u get the latest 30 largest shareholder list?

TS S said...

annual report or other investment platform's data base.