Nuffnang

Sunday, 12 January 2014

切入点 vs 心态 (Time The Trend vs Mentality Management)

切入点 vs 心态:(快而准+肯定性难预测 vs 慢而稳+肯定性明显高)

很多人喜欢等个股上升的趋势才介入一个一直追踪着的股(比如A股)。虽然眼前看好,但是就是“等”的因素,所以迟迟不买入。以这样心态的人,往往会把所剩的钱投入其他已经在上升趋势的股(比如B股)。毕竟大部分人都喜欢看到比较快的眼前回酬。

情形一:
在这个时期,如果压中了上升趋势的股(B股)带来盈利了,投资者往往会继续守,毕竟上升趋势不会在短期内完毕。所以,虽然看到A股开始有上升趋势,投资者还是无动于中。也许,有部分投资者会做换马的决定(条件:B股价暴涨过头/知道A股的基本面远远好过B股和要果断的决定)。
效果:(1)过后的A股或B股那个可以赚得比较多,就要看个股的条件。自找烦恼。回酬也许会是比较少或分别不大。(2)做得对又做得秒。投资心态很强的投资者。回酬赚更多。

情形二:
要不然,压错了,短期没赚钱或亏着钱,A股开始飙了(尤其是一下起了10%以上)。可以肯定,大部分的投资者的心态会不舍得放弃之前的B股,因为心理因素不能接受A股突然起了很多和B股面临着没钱赚的情况。
效果:(1)错失良机或(2)认错赚更少。

情形三:
如果A股的条件能给很不错的回酬(比如:50%),够稳,肯定性高,买入耐心等。不必太烦恼地达到预测中回酬率。
效果:预测中的回酬。

投资。。。都是选择性的决定。个人的心态和操作能力是一环很重要的因素来决定你的投资回酬。

以上的情形,有没有发生过在你投资的生涯里?以你的能力,会比较适合那以种投资方式?


Time The Trend vs Mentality Management: (Quick & Right + Less Certainty vs Slow But Steady + High Certainty)

A lot of investors prefer to buy in a stock that under radar (let's say Stock A) only when its up-trend is come. Even though the stock looks very attractive, but they put a hold on it due to may wait for a longer time in order for the stock price to goes up. For this type of investor, their on hand cash will mostly goes into another stock which is already in up-trend condition (let's say Stock B). This will be a common case due to investor prefer to get immediate return once invested on a stock.

Scenario 1:
For such case, if investor choose it correctly and get immediate return on stock B, they mostly will continue to keep it due to the up-trend won't stop in short period. Thus, even stock A is show indication on up-trend, they may just ignore it. Anyhow, some investor may decide to switch to stock A with condition that stock B is already up too much or they have a very firm decision to switch due to stock A is much better in term of fundamental and prospect.
Effect: (1) At the end, the performance for the stock A and B will mostly depend on its fundamental and prospect. Need to make a lot of consideration by doing this. The return may less or doesn't much different if miss out the necessary switching. (2) If time the stock trend correctly in all the cases, the return will be much greater than most of the investors. This can be done if you are a great investor with strong mentality management.

Scenario 2:
If investor invested in stock B without immediate return or making loss, they will mostly not switch to stock A (especially the stock price spike up at 10% or more in short period) due to mentality management is not easy to handle in such a condition.
Effect: (1) Miss out the good chance to invest in stock A (cash stuck at stock B). (2) Admit mistake by switch to stock A but will earn much lesser.

Scenario 3:
If you knew stock A is very great in term of fundamental & prospect, very high certainty and will able to provide you a great return (let's say 50%), just invest on it by put more patient on it. This way will be less troublesome in investment decision making.
Effect: You may get the return as per your prediction.

Investment is a selective and subjective decision for investor. Mentality management and the way you handle each situation will be the main contributor to your investment return rate.

Along the investment life, do you face this kind of situation? What is the best way for you to handle it?

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