Nuffnang

Saturday, 18 May 2013

[0097] VITROX

【伟特机构】

公司的生意模型,我就不多讲了。毕竟前一个新闻贴,也讲得满详细了。那就让我直接进入重点吧!

生意上的重点:
1)公司打算在2015年内,要把营业量从现在不到0.9亿提高到5亿。
- 管理层透露,以公司现有的设备,看好能在2015年里,以自然成长的需求下,把营业量提高到3-3.5亿。
- 所以,这个方案要达标就必须通过并购活动来达成。
2)工人薪金的趋势,未来会慢慢提高。最低薪金,是一个势在必行的事实。科技的发达,令到电子产品也变得越来越复杂和细小。各行各业都要达到高产量,又要有高素质的产品,单单依靠人手是相当难去应付。所以,我看好未来拥有更多自动化概念的产品将会产生。
- 是不是夕阳企业这个问题,就由你去思考了。
3)廠房方面,偉特機構在檳城工廠地點已完成增設新廠房,去年開始投運,廠房面積比之前大4倍,料可增加100%產能,最高每個月可從原本的30台增至60台機器產能。
- 注:要完全反射这个效应,条件是要有很好的销售成绩。但是,这个利好已经可以克服2010年供不应求的问题!
4)公司积极地在各地扩充销售管道。
- 增加销售量,又能打响公司的品牌。
5)15%資金研發新產品
- 做生意(尤其是科技业),原步跑是大忌!新产品能陆续推出,就能够维持和增加市场上占有率的一杯羹。

基本数字的重点:
》 2012年的EPS=8.8。以今天的收市价,82sen。PE=9.3,感觉上属于一般。
》 用保守的方式去预测,只要公司能达到2亿的营业量,就代表公司的业绩会达到一倍多的增长。
》 接下来,公司的除税后溢利(PAT)将会继续降低。所以,营业量 vs EPS就不能以一对一去算。

》保守算法:
a)如果2014/15年只能够达到2亿的营业量。
b)如果除税后溢利从2012年的23%下降到15%。
c)除税后盈利 =(200mil x 15%)= 30mil
d)总共股数 = 232,500,000
e)EPS = 30mil / 232.5mil = RM0.129
f)PE = 82sen / 12.9sen = 6.36
g)比如股息有3.5sen,DY= 3.5sen/82sen = 4.27%

》如果,到时市场给公司的PE=10,股价= 10 x 0.129 = RM1.29。
(这个算法,只是单单以【2亿的营业量】和【15%的除税后溢利】来算。给予一间拥有好未来的世界级公司,PE=10一点都高估!)

》这样的保守的预测,能够看到很不错的交易条件。你,觉得这道投资值得“博”吗?

添加资料:

A)营业量 = 3亿 》 EPS = (300mil x 15%)/ 232.5mil = RM0.1935 》 PE = 10,股价 = RM1.94
B)营业量 = 4亿 》 EPS = (400mil x 15%)/ 232.5mil = RM0.2581 》 PE = 10,股价 = RM2.58
C)营业量 = 5亿 》 EPS = (500mil x 15%)/ 232.5mil = RM0.3226 》 PE = 10,股价 = RM3.23


D)营业量 = 2亿 》 EPS = (200mil x 18%)/ 232.5mil = RM0.1548 》 PE = 10,股价 = RM1.55
E)营业量 = 3亿 》 EPS = (300mil x 18%)/ 232.5mil = RM0.2322 》 PE = 10,股价 = RM2.32
F)营业量 = 4亿 》 EPS = (400mil x 18%)/ 232.5mil = RM0.3097 》 PE = 10,股价 = RM3.10


其他有联系的重点:
1)几位股东,66sen-68sen在公开市场里抛售股票。同样的,60sen-61sen之间也有场外交易抛售股票。
2)以上的股东交易信息,就能知道股价继续下跌的空间已经没什么可能了!(P/S:这就是所谓的低风险之一的条件!)
。。。这些交易,尤其是以折扣价卖出的原因,还是让大家自己去思考思考吧!

VITROX

【VITROX】


The previous post has explained the company business quite well. Thus, I will straight to the key points explained why it is a good investment.

Business Key Points:
1)Company planned to hit the revenue from current ~90mil to 500mil in year 2015.
- According to the company, the organic growth can help them to hit up to 300-350mil in year 2015.
- Thus, the additional revenue need to be top up thru M&A activity.
2)Under high nation income plan by government, employee salary will goes up slowly. Minimum salary also is the must implement program in coming near future. The blooming technology has lead to more complicated product design and product size also getting smaller. Companies would like to have high capacity production  to generate more income and also expect for good quality & more reliable product to avoid unnecessary cost penalty. Thus, market will slowly divert the trend from human dependant job to automation technology.
- So, is this a sunset business? Let you to think about it.
3)The plant expansion has been completed since last year. The size is 4 times larger than previous and this will able to push the production capacity by 100% increment. By translate to productivity, it is up from 30 units production to 60 units product per month.
- ATTN: In order to reflect this effect, company must come with great order from customers. Anyhow, this expansion has eliminated the concern of unable to support greater demand from customer which happened during year 2010.
4)Aggressively to explore more market through sales and marketing.
- This will open opportunity for more revenue as well as promoting the company brand.
5)15% CAPEX is located for new product invention
- To stay on to technology world, company must always make new products. This is the correct path to capture the market share greater and more effective.

FA Key Points:
》 2012's EPS = 8.8. Today closing price = RM0.82. Thus, PE = 9.3. It seem nothing special.
》 To be conservative. Let's assume company only can hit 200mil revenue. Basically, this translate to more than 100% grow on revenue.
》 In future, company PAT will get lower actually. So, revenue vs eps will not go up parallel as per current situation.

》Calculation (be conservative)
a)If 2014/15 only generate 200mil revenue.
b)If PAT margin drop from 2012's 23% to 15%。
c)PAT =(200mil x 15%)= 30mil
d)NOS = 232,500,000
e)EPS = 30mil / 232.5mil = RM0.129
f) PE = 82sen / 12.9sen = 6.36
g)If dividend is 3.5sen, DY = 3.5sen/82sen = 4.27%


》If market appreciate the company by giving PE=10. Stock Price = 10 x 0.129 = RM1.29。
( This calculation is purely based on 200mil revenue and PAT = 15%. Also, rated a world class company with PE=10 is quite reasonable.)

》According to this conservation estimation, it seem like an attractive investment opportunity. So, do you think it is worth to invest?


Add On:

A) Revenue =300mill 》 EPS =(300mil x 15%) / 232.5mil =RM0.1935 》 PE =10, Stock Price =RM1.94
B) Revenue =400mill 》 EPS =(400mil x 15%) / 232.5mil =RM0.2581 》 PE =10, Stock Price =RM2.58
C) Revenue =500mill 》 EPS =(500mil x 15%) / 232.5mil =RM0.3226 》 PE =10, Stock Price =RM3.23

D) Revenue =200mill 》 EPS =(200mil x 18%) / 232.5mil =RM0.1548 》 PE =10, Stock Price =RM1.55
E) Revenue =300mill 》 EPS =(300mil x 18%) / 232.5mil =RM0.2322 》 PE =10, Stock Price =RM2.32
F) Revenue =400mill 》 EPS =(400mil x 18%) / 232.5mil =RM0.3097 》 PE =10, Stock Price =RM3.10



Other Key Points:
1) Recently, few directors disposed share through open market (66-68sen) and also off market (60-61sen).
2) Based on this activity, roughly know that the room for share price to be further downside is already limited. Thus, the risk to catch falling knife is very low.
...why directors would like to dispose the share at discounted price through off market? I will let you to think about it!

1 comment:

Jonas said...

2)以上的股东交易信息,就能知道股价继续下跌的空间已经没什么可能了!(P/S:这就是所谓的低风险之一的条件!)
。。。这些交易,尤其是以折扣价卖出的原因,还是让大家自己去思考思考吧!

--公司高层对公司那么有信心,应该排除因为业绩不好而抛售。
所以我想应该是为未来铺路,增加股票流通率。吸引基金入资。