Nuffnang

Thursday, 24 March 2016

柔佛的行程

接下来的4和5月份,将会是笔者第一次往南下去做基本与选股课程和投资经验的分享。

本人对远距离的行程有点恐惧感。所以,每年的行程都会有个限制。希望跟有缘和有兴趣一起学习的朋友见个面。

课程所得到的资金,部分会用来做善事。除此之外,笔者也将会把自己所收到的资金,累积到一定的数目后,将会为社会做更多的事情。。。先卖个关子,让本人在未来才揭晓。


Investalks Academy

基本与选股课程是通过Investalks Academy的主办单位进行。

课程:101课程(初级课程)
地点:Crystal Crown Hotel, Johor
日期:9-Apr-2016
时间:9am to 5pm
链接:《LINK》
讲师:Y2K

》基本面的数字知识(基本数字认识,解读财务报告和公司深入资料的了解)
》对象群:没有学过基本面的新手或者想要对财报有进一步认识的投资者。


课程:202课程(选股课程)
地点:Crystal Crown Hotel, Johor
日期:10-Apr-2016
时间:9am to 5pm
链接:《LINK》
讲师:Y2K

》基本面的选股知识(寻找信息,未来盈利预测,买卖决定的考量,隐形信息的思考,找股工具和陷阱数字的可能性)
》对象群:学过基本面的投资者或者想要对新一套选股法认识的投资者。


简单介绍:
现在的Investalks Academy拥有3位讲师:
(LC Chong)曾经是某间上市公司的高层。现在属于一家跨国公司的管理层人物。基本数据的知识可是佼佼者。
(月夜)将要毕业于金融系硕士的年轻人。-善于以简单易懂的方式讲解财政报告和分析经济局势。
(Y2K)已经工作多年的一位底薪工厂劳工。以工程系的知识胡乱解读会计数据的学问。再以不三不四的基本数据方式,创造自己一套赚钱的选股投资方式。


荷兰客栈

投资经验的分享是与荷兰客栈的队员一起主办。

课程:实战经验的分享
地点:Crystal Crown Hotel, Johor
日期:14-May-2016
时间:9am to 5pm
链接:《LINK》
讲师:糊涂,寒江,Y2K


简单介绍:
荷兰客栈是由一群股痴而成立。每位成员都有个人的强行。某些队员的实战经验可不输与外界有名的投资者。
(糊涂)拥有16年投资经验的老手。不管投机还是投资,都是一位赚钱达人。晓得利用简单的数据分析,为自己的投资生涯都稳赚不赔。
(寒江)一位精明的投资者。晓得利用身边的资源,再配合基本面的条件,不管追高或捞底,都是多赚少赔,大赚小赔的状况。


注意:Investalks Academy和荷兰客栈的课程,各有不一样的分享方式,也不会带来任何咨询冲突。

Saturday, 19 March 2016

如何判断某间公司的合理价?How to determine a price tag for a company?

个人经常遇到新人问的2个问题:
1. 如何判断某间公司的合理价?
2. 如何寻找到你投资的对象股?

昨天花了一些时间,制造一个虚幻的情景来解释(1)的疑问。

故事虚幻的情景:

【第一阶段】
A公司,过去3年的盈利都是成长于3-5%的速度,股息率只有1%,市场先生给它PE7的“合理”价(比如:eps10sen,股价RM0.70)。

【第二阶段】
接下来的2年,公司决定不再给股息,因为要积极扩充业务。高层也表态会为接下来的未来3年达到每年30%的成长。
在第一年扩充业务时期,扩充费用(CAPEX)突然大增和一些不能控制的外来因素而导致盈利大减70%(eps3sen)。股价稍微下跌20%,(RM0.56),“合理”价变成PE18.6。

【第三阶段】
在第二年扩充业务时期,扩充费用继续增加,但是外来因素渐渐地平稳起来了,而盈利回升去(eps8sen)水平。股价回稳和升上到(RM0.80),“合理”价变成PE10。

【第四阶段】
扩充业务如预期中完成和开始运作的第一年就达到70% capacity。扩充费用明显减少。盈利比初期大增25%到(eps12.5sen)水平。股价大涨(RM1.50),“合理”价变成PE12。

【第五阶段】
扩充业务完成后的第二年,capacity运作提升到90%。盈利比去年大增30%到(eps16.25sen)水平。公司重新公布股息,10sen。股价大涨(RM2.50),股息率为4%,“合理”价变成PE15。4。

合理价背后的因素和思考点:

【第一阶段】
成长和股息都不吸引。估值自然不高。(PE7)

【第二阶段】
(负面因素):扩充需要2年才能看到盈利效应,再加上没有股息回归给股东。30%的成长也只是高层的称若,不一定会做到。还有高扩充费用和一些难以预测外来因素的影响。所以,那段时期也会带给部分投资者很多忧虑。这些投资者会卖股出场。(利好因素)扩充将会带来30%的盈利成长,虽然扩充其中盈利可能会大跌,但是有部分大型长期投资者看好未来的发展和认为管理层能讲到做到,所以趁机低价进场买入也带来扶持股价的效应(跌不多,股价-20% vs 盈利-70%)。。。此2派投资者的对立,导致看以“不合理”的估值(PE18.6)。

【第三阶段】
盈利开始回稳。扩充也接近尾声。此时,虽然盈利还没创新高,但是股价已经悄悄被有心人推高。这是因为市场投资者开始对未来的成长抱着正面的期望。(PE10)

【第四阶段】业务扩充明显带来高成长水平(25% vs 30%),非常接近高层的称若。虽然还是没有给股息,但是成长率已经足够让公司的“合理”价变得更高。(PE12)

【第五阶段】
30%的高成长水平,管理层的素质,重新给(高)股息,市场先生非常乐意把以前完全不明亮的一颗星(PE7)变为一颗明星(PE15.4)。


以上的构想,只是其中一种状况。要如何判断某间公司的合理价,是没有一个固定的程式。只有灵活性的应对。


There are 2 common questions often asked by newbies:
1. How to determine a price tag for a company?
2. How to figure out a company to invest?

I have spent some of my free time to create a virtual story to answer the question (1).

The story:

【Stage 1】
Company A has a track record of 3-5% profit growth in the past 3 years. Also give dividend at about 1% yield. Mr market valued it at PE 7. (E.g. EPS 10sen, share price RM0.70)

【Stage 2】
Company decided not to distribution dividend anymore for the next 2 years because they are going to do aggressive expansion during that period of time. The management team is confident to achieve 30% annual profit growth for the next 3 years once the expansion activity is completed.
In the first year of expansion, the company profit has plunged -70% (EPS 3sen) due to sudden rise in CAPEX and affected by unavoidable external influence to the business. The share price has dropped 20% (RM0.56) and its valuation become PE18.6.

【Stage 3】
During final year of expansion, its CAPEX still remain at high side, but the external interference to business has been settled down comfortably. Its profit has returned to comfortable level (EPS 8sen) and share price rise to RM0.80. Its valuation become PE10.

【Stage 4】
Expansion plan has been completed as per schedule and achieved 70% capacity utilization in the first year. CAPEX has been reduced to minimum level. Company profit has increased 25% compared to the before expansion mode (EPS 12.5sen). Share price increased dramatically to RM1.50. Thus, its valuation now improved to PE10.

【Stage 5】
It is the 2nd year after the expansion plan, capacity utilization has improved to 90%. Profit growth for this year is 30% (EPS 16.25sen). Company decided to repay (good) dividend to reward shareholders at 10sen per share. Its share price has exploded to RM2.50 and Dividend Yield improved to 4%. Finally, Mr Market awarded them with a price tag at PE15.4.


The rational behind the price tag and its consideration points.

【Stage 1】
Unattractive growth rate and DY. Low valuation is expected (PE 7).

【Stage 2】
(Negative influences)
Expansion plan take about 2 years to company and there is no dividend payment during that period of time. It is just a verbal promise of 30% profit growth by the management which may not become reality at last. High CAPEX and external market influence may affect company profit during expansion time. Part of the company existing investors are tend to sell their shares due to all of those highlighted concerns.
(Positive influences)
The expansion plan to bring a great figure for profit growth (30% per year). This prospect attracted some of the new investors who aim for longer term of investment, trying to buy in when share price fall due to bad time (profit dropped -70%). This type of investors are not worry about the short term influence to the company profit. Their effort to buy in has provided reasonable support to the share price (only drop -20%). Due to different approaches done by 2 different types of investors, the valuation for the company become unreasonable "expensive" at PE 18.6.

【Stage 3】
Profit has returned to stable level and its expansion plan is almost end. Although the profit yet break new high (EPS 8sen vs 10sen), the price share shown great response to hit new high (RM0.80 vs RM0.70). At this time, investors are expecting positive prospect in profit growth from the expansion. Thus, investors are willing to pay at price at PE 10 to buy in.

【Stage 4】
The expansion has proved a 25% profit growth result and the figure is very close to the management's prediction. Although there is no dividend announcement for the year, the growth prospect has given a good reason for investors to value it at PE 12.

【Stage 5】
With 30% profit growth rate, the excellent quality of the management team and much higher dividend yield rate, Mr Market is very happy to transform an ugly duck (PE 7) to become a golden goose (PE 15.4).

Above virtual story is just one of the example to explain the price tag valuation. There is no fixed formula to determine a price tag on a company. We have to be flexible in dealing each situation and also learn from experiences.