Nuffnang

Monday, 1 June 2015

【基本面+长期投资】| FA + Long Term Investment

何为股票长期投资?此句子看来很普通。但是却让大部分人带来不一样的意思。

笔者曾经说过,如果以基本面长期投资在股市里,都是包赚的。世上真的有包赚的东西吗?笔者的答案还是“有”,如果你懂得如何操作。

给予笔者,长期投资的意思是一直把自己投入在股市里。买股票来收或卖出股票收现金,都是属于一种投资状态。我们不一定要一直买入或持有才算是一种投资。在适当的时候,暂时把资金抽出也是一种所谓的投资。

状况1:买入或持有
在股市情绪大好时期,如果手中的股票增值,投资就算赚了。相反,如果当时手持大量现金,就会导致少赚的情况。间接中就是亏掉了大好时机。时机也就是时间,亏了时间就代表亏了钱。(什么歪理?)

状况2:把资金抽出
在股市情绪大坏时期,如果当时手持大量股票,资金面临亏损的情况就难以想象了。可以讲是亏了本钱又亏了时间(要浪费时间赚回来)。相反,当时手中持有的现金,就成功避免不必要的亏损和可以以更便宜的价钱买入,也就是间接中所谓的赚到了。(又来个歪理?)

不管什么投资,风险是避免不了的。但是,所谓的风险都是可以减低。在股票投资里,懂得做公司的基本面资料,就是一环把风险降低的学问。通过基本面的了解,我们可以避免高风险或者没把握的投资,只选择风险低和有把握得到高回酬的投资。

没把握的投资,跟赌博没两样。长期下去,要包赚真的是必须是个非常幸运的人。
有把握的投资,成功的机率就来得比错误机率高。以适当的操作长期投资下去,是不是觉得真的包赚那样?

所谓有把握的投资,都是有付才有得。要在股市里不靠他人而长期生存(稳赚),就必须懂得基本面的知识。一间预测能长期成长的公司,代表其价值会长期增值。一间会长期增值的公司,不管外围的影响有多大,把时间拉长,其价值自然会恢复到应有水平。所以,时间也是价值的最好衡量工具。

以上有谈到两种的投资方式:内在价值观(长期不理会外围的因素)和预测市场方向(状况1&2)。两者都能赚钱,只是以不一样的操作手法。但是,基本面预测和市场方向预测都是会有错误的机率出现。只要懂得做纠正,少赚或少亏都是一种控制风险的方式。价值观投资都是属于比较长期,而预测市场都是比较属于短中期。

如果事情的发生跟预测中开始出现矛盾,就必须回顾基本面来做出改变。所谓的基本面长期投资,就是要以基本面来看特你长期投资的个案。而不是所谓的长期持有和完全不卖的投资。

基本面就是一把尺,让你懂得去衡量一个东西的好坏。

所以,只要把基本面的知识打稳,错误出现的机率自然就会变低。投资10个股,只要有7个赚到不错的回酬,就可以算很不错了。只有这样,你才能达到稳赚不赔的长期投资。

股票市场都是一种钱财游戏。如果你是一位不能肯定长期投资能够包赚钱的投资者,笔者不觉得你适合留在股市里一直打转。毕竟单以运气来玩这种游戏,灾难的降临是迟早会发生的事情。


What is long term investment? The term look simple but a lot of people may think it differently.

In a previous post, I have mentioned that it is a surely profitable investment if you take it with fundamental in long run. Is that truth? I will still said "yes" if you know how to work on it.

What is the meaning of long term investment? For me, it is just as simple as you continue stay in the stock market. Cash in or cash out from stock, both are one of the investment acts. Investment doesn't mean you must always stay in the market with stock on hand. At time, keep cash is also one of the investment strategy.

Scenario 1: Buy in or holding stock
When market sentimental is good, any buy or stock on hand is a good decision to make good profit. On the other hand, you will not gain any if you holding pile of cash. In this case, you have missed the good time to invest. Time is money, it mean you are making loss indirectly. Right?

Scenario 2: Cash out and stay away
When market sentimental is bad, you will unable to imagine the loss if you holding a lot of stock. In this case, your investment capital is eroded and you need spend more time to get it back. Whereby, if you are in cash rich position, you are not only avoided the loss but gain a good timing to buy lower. Agree?

We are unable to run away from risk for any kind of investment. But, the investment risk can be minimize. In stock market, fundamental analysis is a kind of knowledge that allow you to minimize the risk. Through FA, we will able to understand and avoid the investment which is high risk and less confident. FA will direct you to the investment that you are confident and foresee a good investment return in future.

If you make an investment that you are not confident at all, you are no different from gambling. You will never able to make a surely profitable investment in long run unless you are a super lucky person. If you have a solid confident in your investment, the chances to be succeed will definitely in better position. By doing this in long run, do you think it will be a surely profitable investment?

Confident is build up by effort. If you would like to make profitable investment by yourself in long term, you should have proper FA knowledge. If you foresee a company will continue grow, it mean its intrinsic value will grow in time. Regardless how bad is the external factor, it will goes back to its reasonable value in longer term. Time is the best tool to judge the value of a company.

Both intrinsic value investment (ignore external factor in long run) and time the market (scenario 1 & 2) will also make money but in different methods. Our prediction through fundamental analysis or time the market will some time goes wrong. As long as we rectify it, lesser profit or lower loss are good to take as part of the consequence from risk management. Intrinsic value investment is more to long term whereby time the market is more to short to mid term.

If something happen against your prediction, a fundamental revisit is a must. The meaning of FA for a long term investment is to assist you to measure its fundamental from time to time. Long term investment does not ask you keep it forever by ignore things which are getting worse.

Fundamental analysis is a measurement tool for you to judge the investment whether still in good position.

Thus, if you able to build up your FA skill well, it will definitely help you to reduce mistake and investment risk. At least 7 out of 10 stocks you buy are making good profit, it will be good enough. If you able to do in proper manner, I don't see any reason it can't be a surely profitable investment in long run.

Stock market is a money game. As an investor, if you think you can't make a surely profitable investment in long run, I don't see any reason why you should still stay in stock market. It will be a disaster for an investor who is playing a game just purely depend on the luck.

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