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Saturday, 28 February 2015

SUCCESS: Q4FY14业绩检讨 (Q4FY14 Result Review)

这次的差劲业绩(EPS 0.18sen)主要原因是SEB,子公司(汽油业)所导致。
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1890165

SUCCESS拥有65%SEB的股份,Q42014的业绩亏损了大概九百万。季报讲解是因为其中一个工程的开销管理做得不好。
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1890157

SEB的营业额占了SUCCESS的三分之一。所以,他对公司所带来的影响是不可忽略的。
在汽油价还没大跌前,汽油业未来的前景其实还不错的。现在连PETRONAS都大事公布会继续减少开支。所以,接下来的前景只可以讲是黑暗模糊。

除此之外,近期也要网友问到我关于SUCCESS的看法。经过我去年重新深入研究公司的帐目,我就以以下的回答讲解公司的问题:

SUCCESS看来其实很不错,但是投资起来也不太放心。
1)收债能力差和顾客的还债期限长。加上常常出现烂债。
- 这些烂债就如盈利的寄生物,往往所赚的都会被蛀掉部分。
2)现金流差,常出现负数。主要原因是长期的CAPEX都很高。
- 就如身体所所制造的血液,不能补回所流失的血。长期维持这样,体质肯定越来越差。如果没有办法改变,也许进ICU的时期,会跟股东们讨血来救命。

SUCCESS便宜也许是以上的原因。
这个问题也许是管理层以太过积极的方式把公司快速扩张而导致帐目达不到一个好的平衡点,也或许是这个行业原本的本质问题。

接下来的时间,如果公司能够把以上的问题解决和交出漂亮的帐目数据,也是就是他的爆发期。要不然,还是跟这位只有外在美的美眉说声道别话吧。外面的世界,美眉多得是,多到搭讪不完。

公司应该很难在1-2年内把帐目做好(如果真的能做得到)。加上汽油业的前景不明朗,个人认为,要以严格的价值投资法去投资,SUCCESS的股价要振作起来真的难如登天!



SUCCESS reported a bad quarter result with eps 0.18sen. This is due to its O&G subsidiary reported a huge loss.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1890165

SEB is a 65% owned subsidiary for SUCCESS and its Q42014 has reported about RM9mil loss. From the performance review, it mentioned due to cost over-run on a particular project.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1890157

SEB's revenue is 1/3 of total revenue of SUCCESS. Thus, its effect must not be ignored. O&G business still doing fine before a quick and big fall in crude oil price. Furthermore, PETRONAS has announced to cut its CAPEX and this will definitely bring bad influence to O&G business very soon.

Recently, there is question arise and seek my advice on SUCCESS. Below is my feedback which to include my view after I have done another round of further research on the company's accounting figures.

SUCCESS seems cheap and attractive, but it come with some cautions as well.
1) Receivable is increasing and the customer payment credit term is too long. Impairment on receivable is happened year by year.
- This will act like a parasite to the company and erode its profit every year.
2) Free Cash Flow is negative for almost every year. The main reason is due to high CAPEX.
- It seem like the blood generation in the body is unable to recover its bleeding. In long run, the body will getting weak. If the condition unable to recover in proper manner, there is a chance for entering in to ICU condition and it will ask blood donation from you (shareholder).

With above reasons, maybe it is why SUCCESS is offering in cheap PE valuation.
The problem may cause by the company expansion is too aggressive and cause it unable to stabilize its balance sheet yet or its is a natural of the company business.

I think big funds will only appreciate the share price if management able to rectify the problems, Else, it will only look nice in the outlook, but not inner side.

It is a challenge for company to rectify the accounting worries as mentioned above (if it really can happen). Couple with bad prospect in O&G field, and with strict fundamental selection criteria to invest, I guess it will be very difficult for the company share price to fly.

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