Nuffnang

Monday, 28 December 2015

[0155] MGRC


公司背景

人类都会经过生,老,病,死的阶段。每个人的差异都会跟基因和生活素质息息相关。除了人类以外,与整个大环境有关联的生物也不例外。要深入了解如此复杂的关系可算是不简单的任务。在大马的股市里,正有一家把如此复杂的东西作为其业务。

跟基因学有关联的业务,其实并不容易了解。对一般大众而言,属于一个非常陌生的生意。基因,也许大家都有听闻过,但是有深入了解的人可不多,包括笔者。身为一名保守的投资者,如果对公司的业务不了解,都应该尽量避免去投资。因为笔者对如此不平凡的业务充满好奇心和感兴趣,所以决心下足功夫一步一步深入了解,而不是排个马屁不了了之。以下的文章,可以让大家比较了解关于基因背后的咨询。

Ø  一个跟A-C-G-T有关联的业务。


Ø  企业宣传片


公司的业务

以下是公司的业务分布。笔者以一位普通投资者的简单方式来大概讲解。
Ø  基因组测序
o    从零开始的某些基因研究工作。
Ø  基因组分析
o    已经有了基因组测序咨询,但是要了解某些基因深入的分析。
Ø  基因检查
o    了解个人对某种疾病的风险程度。
Ø  病理学实验室
o    病理学是研究引起疾病或由疾病造成的机体器官和组织的结构和功能变化
Ø  诊断服务
o    鉴定某些疾病。

基因组测序和基因组分析,属于合约性业务。基因检查,病理学实验室和诊断服务,属于经常性收入业务。过去几年的时间,公司正积极把业务转型,从2010年上市时完全依赖合约性的收入,渐渐地增加经常性的收入。


基因组测序和分析,都是属于大型工程的来源。主要跟大机构和医学院相关的对象合作。合约都是需要长时间更近才能得到手,大概812月。一旦合约到手,都会让公司忙上更长的时间。

其中比较大型的合约包括与森那美(Sime Darby)合作的工程。在2009年,该公司已经成功破译油棕遗传学,使之成为世界上第一家实现这一科学突破。公司也在201411月从FELDA WELLNESS得到19百万的合约,预测将会在2017年才完工。公司最近期的杰作就是与Monash University Malaysia大学研究小组成功研究首宗鱼类(亚洲龙鱼)的基因组测序。

基因组测序和分析业务,专家预测全球现状到2018年的年复合增长率是21%,也代表2018年将会达到80120亿美元的销售值。除此之外,外包的趋势正在增加,主要从美国和欧盟去到亚洲。
公司在此业务的贡献可以讲是非常多元化。还有很多让大家难以想象的工程。


基因检查,是近期公司得到快速成长的其中一个业务。Dtect是公司所创办的一系列的基因筛检服务,主要通过基因检查让大众提前预防个人有可能遇到的高风险疾病。它根据已确认的基因标记为顾客进行DNA筛检。这些标记也称为基因变异,与疾病风险息息相关。每项Dtect测试是专为一组特定的疾病而设,如心血管疾病、代谢性疾病和​​儿科疾病。Dtect检验报告能帮助检查者管理自己及亲人的健康。暂时Dtect测试的系列有以下五款。如无意外,公司将在2016年推出多一款新测试系列。详情就让公司在适当的时间才公布吧!


笔者本身曾经尝试Dtect Metabolic的测试,可以大概了解其中的过程。他们将会给你一个DNA口腔抹拭采集工具包,里面主要包括一根棉签,一个管子和一粒硅胶。然后跟着以下简单的步骤就完成收集测试者的样本。


分析报告大概会在2个星期出炉。过后就跟基因顾问见面了解详情。


更多的详情可以参考网站的咨询:http://dtect.com/dtect-tests-2/dtect-metabolic/


每款Dtect测试,一生人只需做一次,因为分析出来的个人基因资料将不会在未来而改变。每款Dtect测试价钱大概是1千到2千马币的范围。

大家可以看以下的短片来了解关于Dtect的功能。


病理学实验室,简单的讲解就是实验我们的器官,组织和体液(比如血液和尿液)来检查疾病的可能性。其实,病理学的服务是非常广阔。其中的服务就如大众所做的年度身体检查服务。比较常见的竞争对手有如BP Labs。但是公司主要跟医生和医院以合伙的方式合作,而不像BP Labs那样直接做门面的生意。其中的原因是与MGRC的创办人(Robert George Hercus)有关联。因为他是澳洲人,所以公司的生意会比较接近澳洲人的模式,特别专注自己的专长给与客户最专业的服务。公司相信通过人脉和专注的服务将会带来更好的效果。

20127月,公司公布通过其子公司MPath Sdn Bhd,收购Clinipath (Malaysia)Clinipath CapitalMedical Scan70%100%100%的股份。这也让公司正式添加了病理学的业务。在201312月和20156月,公司也继续把CM的股权提升到95%100%MPath Sdn BhdMGRCAJMAKS各自拥有50%股权的子公司。以2014年估计,CM持有6%的大马私营部门病理市场。整个大马市场的价值大概是4.28亿马币。此市值,预测2019年将会达到7.54亿马币,公司也放眼希望到时能够占有10%的市场率。

什么是病理学?
http://www.news-medical.net/health/What-is-Pathology-(Simplified-Chinese).aspx


诊断服务,属于病理学的一部分,主要是鉴定某些疾病。北美洲和澳洲属于这个行业的发达国,医生所做出的70%医疗决定,都是依赖诊断服务。福布斯的预测,此行业在2020年的未来,全球的销售值将会达到800亿美元。诊断服务里,分子诊断是增长最快的一环。它有望成为公司在未来另一个增长的业务领域。

以上的分享只属于笔者个人的了解程度,其中通过自行阅读和与专业人士交谈中得到的信息。笔者不是该行业的专家,资料也许会有差异。
接下来的文章,笔者将会继续谈到公司业务关联的咨询和个人对它的看法,比如其中的风险,转型中的变化与一些隐形的思考。

注:此文章只是纯属公司分享,并非买卖的建议。笔者认为,短期内的股价已经合理化。加上公司还有不明朗的状况。过后会慢慢继续谈。


【继续】


Company Background

Humanity will go through birth, aging, sickness and death phases. Differences in each person will be closely linked with genes and quality of life. In addition to humans, the entire creature associated with our environment is no exception. It is not an easy task to understand such a complex relationship. In the Malaysian stock market, there is a company involving in such complicated task as their business.

DNA is not an easy term to understand. Generally, it is not a common business to public. You may have heard the word of DNA, but may not have deep knowledge in it. So do I. As a conservative investor, you should avoid to invest in a company which you can’t understand its business. Its extraordinary business made me full of curiosity and interest, so I’m determined to work hard to understand it step by step, rather than an exclusive to skip it. With the following articles, we can understand more about DNA.

Ø  A business related to A-C-G-T


Ø  CORPORATE VIDEO


公司的业务 | Company Services

Below are the company business segments. Author as an ordinary investor to explains it in simple way.
Ø  Genome Sequencing
o    Perform a totally new genomics research.
Ø  Genome Analysis
o     To accelerate genomics research according to project goals.
Ø  Genetic Screening
o    To understand the risk for certain diseases
Ø  Pathology Lab
o    Pathology is the study of the way diseases and illnesses develop.
Ø  Diagnostic Services
o    To identify certain diseases

Contract base services are Genome Sequencing & Genome Analysis (Analytical Services). Recurring base services are Genetic Screening, Pathology Lab & Diagnostic Services. In the past few years, company is making effort in business transformation from contract base revenue to recurring base revenue.


Analytical Services is the large-scale project sources to the company. Their customers are those institution and medical field related parties. Normally, company takes a long time to secure a substantial project which may take about 8-12 months. But it takes a long time to complete the contract.

One of the substantial contracts completed is in year 2009. Sime Darby Bhd has successfully deciphered the genetics of the oil palm, making it the world’s first company to achieve this scientific breakthrough. Also in November 2014, the company has secured RM19 million contracts awarded from FELDA WELLNESS and expect to be completed in 2017. For the most recent news, MGRC is involved with Monash University Malaysia University research team and successful research first Malaysian fish (Asian arowana) genome sequencing. (For details, see Appendix News)
Experts predict that by 2018, the global revenue from analytical services will hit USD 8 – 12 billion at 21% CAGR. In addition, also see increasing trend in outsourcing to Asia from US and EU.

There is a lot of efforts can be offer by the company in this segment. As a layman, you will hardly to imagine it.


Genetic Screening is the one of the company’s segments seeing a rapid growth in recent time. The company has used genomic technologies to create "Dtect", which can help screen human DNA for genetic variations, thus enabling humans to empower and better manage their health. Dtect offers a series of genetic screening services. It is a preventive test to help someone to understand their risk in certain diseases according to their own genetic. Dtect is designed to screen someone’s DNA for known genetic markers. These markers, also known as variants, are associated with risks for diseases, disorders, conditions or traits. The results from the Dtect tests can help them manage their health, and the health of their loved ones. All tests are accurate for known genetic markers. Complex diseases may require comprehensive tests that utilize a wider range of markers, or DNA sequencing. Barring unforeseen circumstances, the company will launch an interesting new test in 2016. Let’s wait for it!


I have experience in the Dtect test as I have took Dtect Metabolic before. They will give you a DNA Buccal Swab Kit and it comes with a swab, a tube and a silica gel in capsule shape. Then, just follow below simples steps in order to retrieval of DNA from mouth.


Reports will be released in about two weeks. Then you should arrange a schedule with Genomics Consultant for advice.
             

Pls refer to the link for more detailshttp://dtect.com/dtect-tests/dtect-metabolic/


For each test, only need to do once in lifetime as our genetic will not change in life. The cost for each Dtect test is range is about RM1k to RM2k.

Check out the following video clip to learn more about Dtect.


Pathology lab is a simple vehicle to exam our organs, tissues, and body fluids (eg blood and urine) to examine the possibility of certain diseases. In fact, the pathology service is very broad and our annual medical check is part of it. BP Labs is the more well-known competitor that we can notice easily. Anyway, the company mainly carrying partnership with doctors and hospitals rather than direct facing with public likes BP Labs. Part of the reason for this is related to the MGRC founder (Robert George Hercus). As he is Australian, the company's business will be relatively close to the Australian model, particularly focus on their expertise to give customers the most professional service. Company believes it will work well through partnership and professional focus.

In July 2012, the company announced through its associate MPath Sdn Bhd, acquired Clinipath (Malaysia), Clinipath Captail and Medical Scan at 70%, 100% and 100% of the shares respectively. Officially, company has entered into pathology business. In December 2013 and June 2015, the company also continued to raise their stake in CM to 95% and 100% respectively. MPath Sdn Bhd is a 50:50 Joint-Venture company for MGRC and AJMAKS. In 2014, CM holds 6% of Malaysia’s private sector pathology market share which valued at RM428 million. Beyond to 2019, CM is targeting to reach 10% of market share which could value at RM754mil.


Diagnostic services, part of pathology, is use to identify certain diseases. North America and Australia are the very well developed countries in this field and 70% of healthcare decisions made by doctors are very depending on diagnostic test. According to Forbes’s forecast, global market revenue will hit USD 80 billion by 2020. Fastest growing segment is molecular diagnostics. It is expected to be another growing business segment for the company in the future.


Above share belongs only to the extent of my personal understanding, which through own reading and conversation with professionals. I’m not the industry experts, the information may vary.

In coming articles, I will talk more about business related information and some personal views on the company, such as the risks, changes seen from the company’s transformation and some wild guess through certain information.

Attn: This is only a sharing on the company business, not buy/sell recommendation. In my opinion, the share price has reflected its short term value and it still come with some uncertainty conditions. I shall share it later.



To be continue

Saturday, 28 November 2015

Investalks Academy高级课程正式开跑!

简单介绍:

笔者的基本面投资方式不一定是完美和最好的。但是最少可以让自己学习一套可以在股市赚钱的生存之道。希望笔者的一套学问,最底线可以帮助大家避免基本面不好的投资对象。通过基本面的知识,也可以把投资的风险降低。能够把坏的因素抛离,所得到好投资的几率自然会变得更高。

笔者认为,基本面的知识,是比容易掌握的学问,尤其是给予有不错教育程度的投资者。主要的障碍通常会出现在时间上和恒心的因素。只要能够克服两者,基本面的知识其实不难掌握。

前贴感言:【Investalks基本面课程】 | Investalks Academy

以下的图,是笔者从一位新手的经历到未来自我提升学习的过程。学习的路程是一门漫长时间的学问和考验。

笔者非常相信,一间公司的内在价值,如果在未来的时间会比起现在的状况继续增值,股价会经过艰难的波动而向上奔跑。

好了,回到讲解高级课的内容。

高级课程的大纲如下:

  1. 课程前菜 (Introduction)
  2. 寻找信息 (Information Sourcing)
  3. 未来盈利预测 (Predict The Future Earning)
  4. 隐形信息的思考 (Think On The Hidden Messages)
  5. 买卖决定考虑点 (Decision Making In Buy Sell)
  6. 找股工具 (Stock Selection Tool)
  7. 陷阱数字的可能性 (Possibility On Figure Trap)
  8. 示范个股分析 (Stock Analysis Examples)
【1-5】,将会以一间上市公司作为每个程序的分析为例子。

给予【8】示范个股分析,高级课程的方案将会做得多元化。不一样的讲师将会用个人专长的选股技巧来做示范。示范个股的选择,也会随着不一样的讲师和时间而更改。

笔者特别喜欢寻找比较不起眼(低调)和未来有成长的公司。
不但如此,此次高级课程的示范个股分析,笔者会以比较特殊的分析方式来选股。笔者暂时还没看过有其他分析文章用如此的方式来做预测和分析。(也许我也没把网络上的全部文章看完吧?!)

此特殊的预测:将会在明年内得到一个对或错的答案。
特殊盈利预测:突然盈利转折点的效应。
未来盈利预测:如何预测新业务的盈利。

它,属于一只不多人关注的低价股。
它,近一年的盈利一直倒退。
它,大股东坚持在公开市场一直增持股票。
它,最坏的时期已经过了。
它,转折点即将会出现。
它,“突然”盈利将会出现(特殊预测)。
它,新业务将会不久后完成。
它,新的业务将会带来非常稳定的盈利。
它,虽然还是有些风险。但是,它属于被低估了。

它,到底是什么股?此次高级课程将会揭晓!

如果时间允许,将会添加1-2间上市公司来让大家了解笔者亲身分析过程经验的分享。(过去与最近的例子)

有兴趣参与课程的投资者,可以到此部落格左上角的连接看详情或按此《link》

注意:此课程的分享,纯属让大家了解如何做分析,而不是买卖的建议。

Friday, 16 October 2015

Participation Analysis 【参与率分析】 @ 15-Oct-15

今天的大市不懂外资是净买还是净卖。可以肯定的是,过去7个交易日,外资都是净买家。上两次拥有连续7个交易为净买家的外资,已经是2015年3月中和2014年4月未的事情了。此次的交易值都比前2次来的大。接下来的走势会如何走,也许大家可以看回之前的走势作为参考。会不会有相同的走势,只有过后才懂。

Foreign investors movement is unknown for today's market. Anyhow, foreign investors have been the net buyer for the past 7 days consecutively. The previous 2 times recorded with 7 days consecutively net buy by foreign investor were mid-Mar'15 & end-Apr'15. But this time is showing higher traded value compared to the previous. Perhaps we can use the past trends to predict the coming market trend. Time will prove whether similar trend will happen.




LR - Local Retails 【散户】
LI - Local Institution 【本地基金】
F - Foreign 【外资】

Sunday, 11 October 2015

LANDMRK: AGM信息 (AGM Information)

前几个月的股票市场情绪很糟糕,为了避免不再多加恐慌,所以没有立刻公开地分享公司的AGM信息。观察了这个星期的市场情绪后,加上外资开始出现少许的回流(6-Oct @ 0.6亿,7-Oct @ 2.9亿 & 8-Oct @ 1.2亿),才选择开始做简单的分析。虽然笔者选择开始慢步进场,主要选择跌得深和有价值的股,但是还是必须步步为营来操作。一旦观察到外资再大力抛售,将会选择出场再做观众。下个星期再给大家跟进参与率的分析。

讲回正题。通过Landmrk AGM的信息,可以了解之前的盈利预期做得太乐观了。水晶湖(Crystal Lagoon)的开张是如期进行,但是周围设备的进展还是在很初期的阶段。如此的进展,看来还是需要多2年才可以看到比较明显的盈利。到时候,国际机场也应该接近开始运作的时期。

大家可以耐心地跟踪此公司的进展。笔者还是相信,此公司在未来将会有一番作为,只是时间上的出差。

Market sentimental is very bad in the past few months. It caused me become hesitate to share the AGM information and to avoid unnecessary further panic to investors. The market sentimental looks better in this week and the foreign investors are coming back slowly (6-Oct @ 61mil,7-Oct @ 290mil & 8-Oct @ 120mil). Thus, I decided to share it today. I have started to step in into market in slow pace by focus on deep falling and undervalued stocks. But I still remind myself to be very caution in this market. If the foreign investors are back to great selling mode, I shall retreat as observer again. I will make a Participation Analysis by next week to follow the situation.

Back to the topic. From the Landmark AGM's information, it is very obvious that my previous prediction on the timing is too optimistic. Crystal Lagoon was successfully launched as per schedule, but the surrounding accommodation and facilities are still in very preliminary stage. With this kind of progress, it seem need another 2 years before we can see significant profit to surface. By that time, the launch date of international airport should be around the corner as well.

Just monitor the Treasure Bay Bintan development progress closely. I still believe it is just matter of time in order to let the company to perform well in the future.

Source: Credit to Angie.


Monday, 21 September 2015

Participation Analysis 【参与率分析】 @ 21-Sep-15

26个交易日,外资就卖了21天。上3个交易日,外资买到比较有诚意,但是今天就突然翻脸变卖家。到底接下来的走势会如何发展?

个人追踪了此数据已经有三年多了。但是还捉不到数据背后的真正巧妙灵感。也许需要更多的数据时间来观察。也许多加一到二个牛熊市。

2012年5月算起,外资累积了一年的票直到2013的5月。过后就一直卖到现在。卖出的市值是2012-2013所累积的1.5倍。会多吗?如果把考虑的范围从2009-2012的五月前累积的票也算在里头,个人认为不会多。可以肯定的是,那1.5倍市值被出售的票,肯定赚翻了,也成功把指数维持在高水平。

如果纯属猜测,笔者比较导向更低的指数走势。外资的前3个交易日为何买入?是不是为了推高卖股的空间(推指数高)和得到更多的卖票权(制造卖压)?没有一个答案。唯有继续观看接下来的股市进展。更重要的是,笔者还没有以前大事进场的胆量,因为已经不大会投资在现有的市场了。

From the listed 26 number of trading days, foreign investor (F) has sold in 21 days. From the recent 3 trading days, (F) bought back some significant value of shares. But, (F) made an immediate U turn today. How the show is going on after this?

I tracked such trading data for more than 3 years and still counting. Anyway, I'm still unable to get some solid hints from such trading data analysis. I guess I still need much more time on this. Perhaps need to add on 1 to 2 bullish and bearish market.

Started from May'12, (F) is accumulating share until May'13. It follow by unstoppable selling mode until today. The sold traded value is 1.5 times compared to its accumulation from 2012-2013. Is it a lot? I don't think so if we consider its accumulation since from 2009-2012 which is not under my tracking database. One thing to be sure that, (F) has got good profit from its 1.5 times sold traded value in share and still maintain the index in reasonable high level.

By pure guess, author is more toward to further downside for index. What is the reason for (F) bought back in recent 3 trading days? To create more room for selling (push up the index) and get more share for control power (make selling pressure)? No answer for it. Just continue to see the coming market show. Anyway, I strayed in such market condition as I dare not to buy big as what I did in the past.




LR - Local Retails 【散户】
LI - Local Institution 【本地基金】
F - Foreign 【外资】

Tuesday, 23 June 2015

【Investalks基本面课程】 | Investalks Academy

去年,笔者以个人身份开始了第一次的基本面课程。上次的课程,属于配合初级和高级的连续性课题。过后发觉部分没有基本面知识的学员上课起来比较吃力。所以,觉得完善的基本面课程必须把初级和高级的课题分开来教。除此之外,也可以让已经有很好基础知识的人直接参与高级的课程。

笔者非常感激去年那批有缘人,面子书和上基本课程的投资同道之人。尤其是上基本课程的那批投资者,给了笔者一个机会成为一名初出茅庐和不达标的导师。笔者在此公布,跟他们的WECHAT组群将会一次性付费和永久性的限期作为回报。

接下来的未来,笔者将会与Investalks论坛合作创办Investalks Academy来教导基本面课程。
以下是关于Investalks Academy的大方向:


Investalks Academy的课程分类:

1)初级:基本面的数字知识(基本数字认识,解读财务报告和公司深入资料的了解)
**对象群:没有学过基本面的新手或者想要对财报有进一步认识的投资者。**

2)高级:基本面的选股知识(寻找信息,未来盈利预测,买卖决定的考量,隐形信息的思考,找股工具和陷阱数字的可能性)
**对象群:学过基本面的投资者或者想要对新一套选股法认识的投资者。**


Investalks Academy的特点:

将会被邀请加入Investalks特别群组。在小组里,会员可以无限询问有关课堂上的问题,主讲人或助教将会给课程后的跟进。


Investalks Academy的课程教导方式:

高楼大厦由地起。笔者一路来都(个人)认为,最原始的学问就是最稳固的基础。所以,笔者的课程,将不需利用付费系统,而是以最原始和简单化的方式去做基本面功课。
**最原始的方式代表以最基本的季报和年报取出资料来做功课。
**简单化的方式代表以平民化的会计数字去解读数字资料。了解自己认为所需要的数字资料就好。

一旦把最基础的基本面知识都掌握起来,投资者就可以再配合系统化(付费或免费)的资料增快做功课的时间,也有能力检查和纠正系统化有可能出现的错误。


Investalks Academy的课程地点:

槟城先做试跑。**试跑期间属于有限期的特价**
如果效应好,过后也会在吉隆坡和柔佛开办。如果允许,笔者也希望可以为东马的投资者出一份力。


笔者的感言:

笔者的基本面投资方式不一定是完美和最好的。但是最少可以让自己学习一套可以在股市赚钱的生存之道。希望笔者的一套学问,最底线可以帮助大家避免基本面不好的投资对象。通过基本面的知识,也可以把投资的风险降低。能够把坏的因素抛离,所得到好投资的几率自然会变得更高。

笔者认为,基本面的知识,是比容易掌握的学问,尤其是给予有不错教育程度的投资者。主要的障碍通常会出现在时间上和恒心的因素。只要能够克服两者,基本面的知识其实不难掌握。

笔者开始学习基本面的时期,很多时间都投入在Investalks论坛里。论坛也渐渐成为了笔者学习的其中一个重要通道。要管理一个论坛,可以讲是不简单的一回事。当人多了,是非和会员的不满就会增加。当股市在高峰和挑战性的时期,分享也明显少了,因为要找低风险和高回酬的股就都不容易了。为了回报论坛成为笔记的学习通道和继续笔者的基本面课程,笔者希望可以通过这次的合作为各方带来互利互助的效应。

希望大家多多支持和包容。谢谢!


有兴趣报名者,可以通过以下的连接跟进。
http://www.investalks.com/forum/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=32167&fromuid=7544

Monday, 1 June 2015

【基本面+长期投资】| FA + Long Term Investment

何为股票长期投资?此句子看来很普通。但是却让大部分人带来不一样的意思。

笔者曾经说过,如果以基本面长期投资在股市里,都是包赚的。世上真的有包赚的东西吗?笔者的答案还是“有”,如果你懂得如何操作。

给予笔者,长期投资的意思是一直把自己投入在股市里。买股票来收或卖出股票收现金,都是属于一种投资状态。我们不一定要一直买入或持有才算是一种投资。在适当的时候,暂时把资金抽出也是一种所谓的投资。

状况1:买入或持有
在股市情绪大好时期,如果手中的股票增值,投资就算赚了。相反,如果当时手持大量现金,就会导致少赚的情况。间接中就是亏掉了大好时机。时机也就是时间,亏了时间就代表亏了钱。(什么歪理?)

状况2:把资金抽出
在股市情绪大坏时期,如果当时手持大量股票,资金面临亏损的情况就难以想象了。可以讲是亏了本钱又亏了时间(要浪费时间赚回来)。相反,当时手中持有的现金,就成功避免不必要的亏损和可以以更便宜的价钱买入,也就是间接中所谓的赚到了。(又来个歪理?)

不管什么投资,风险是避免不了的。但是,所谓的风险都是可以减低。在股票投资里,懂得做公司的基本面资料,就是一环把风险降低的学问。通过基本面的了解,我们可以避免高风险或者没把握的投资,只选择风险低和有把握得到高回酬的投资。

没把握的投资,跟赌博没两样。长期下去,要包赚真的是必须是个非常幸运的人。
有把握的投资,成功的机率就来得比错误机率高。以适当的操作长期投资下去,是不是觉得真的包赚那样?

所谓有把握的投资,都是有付才有得。要在股市里不靠他人而长期生存(稳赚),就必须懂得基本面的知识。一间预测能长期成长的公司,代表其价值会长期增值。一间会长期增值的公司,不管外围的影响有多大,把时间拉长,其价值自然会恢复到应有水平。所以,时间也是价值的最好衡量工具。

以上有谈到两种的投资方式:内在价值观(长期不理会外围的因素)和预测市场方向(状况1&2)。两者都能赚钱,只是以不一样的操作手法。但是,基本面预测和市场方向预测都是会有错误的机率出现。只要懂得做纠正,少赚或少亏都是一种控制风险的方式。价值观投资都是属于比较长期,而预测市场都是比较属于短中期。

如果事情的发生跟预测中开始出现矛盾,就必须回顾基本面来做出改变。所谓的基本面长期投资,就是要以基本面来看特你长期投资的个案。而不是所谓的长期持有和完全不卖的投资。

基本面就是一把尺,让你懂得去衡量一个东西的好坏。

所以,只要把基本面的知识打稳,错误出现的机率自然就会变低。投资10个股,只要有7个赚到不错的回酬,就可以算很不错了。只有这样,你才能达到稳赚不赔的长期投资。

股票市场都是一种钱财游戏。如果你是一位不能肯定长期投资能够包赚钱的投资者,笔者不觉得你适合留在股市里一直打转。毕竟单以运气来玩这种游戏,灾难的降临是迟早会发生的事情。


What is long term investment? The term look simple but a lot of people may think it differently.

In a previous post, I have mentioned that it is a surely profitable investment if you take it with fundamental in long run. Is that truth? I will still said "yes" if you know how to work on it.

What is the meaning of long term investment? For me, it is just as simple as you continue stay in the stock market. Cash in or cash out from stock, both are one of the investment acts. Investment doesn't mean you must always stay in the market with stock on hand. At time, keep cash is also one of the investment strategy.

Scenario 1: Buy in or holding stock
When market sentimental is good, any buy or stock on hand is a good decision to make good profit. On the other hand, you will not gain any if you holding pile of cash. In this case, you have missed the good time to invest. Time is money, it mean you are making loss indirectly. Right?

Scenario 2: Cash out and stay away
When market sentimental is bad, you will unable to imagine the loss if you holding a lot of stock. In this case, your investment capital is eroded and you need spend more time to get it back. Whereby, if you are in cash rich position, you are not only avoided the loss but gain a good timing to buy lower. Agree?

We are unable to run away from risk for any kind of investment. But, the investment risk can be minimize. In stock market, fundamental analysis is a kind of knowledge that allow you to minimize the risk. Through FA, we will able to understand and avoid the investment which is high risk and less confident. FA will direct you to the investment that you are confident and foresee a good investment return in future.

If you make an investment that you are not confident at all, you are no different from gambling. You will never able to make a surely profitable investment in long run unless you are a super lucky person. If you have a solid confident in your investment, the chances to be succeed will definitely in better position. By doing this in long run, do you think it will be a surely profitable investment?

Confident is build up by effort. If you would like to make profitable investment by yourself in long term, you should have proper FA knowledge. If you foresee a company will continue grow, it mean its intrinsic value will grow in time. Regardless how bad is the external factor, it will goes back to its reasonable value in longer term. Time is the best tool to judge the value of a company.

Both intrinsic value investment (ignore external factor in long run) and time the market (scenario 1 & 2) will also make money but in different methods. Our prediction through fundamental analysis or time the market will some time goes wrong. As long as we rectify it, lesser profit or lower loss are good to take as part of the consequence from risk management. Intrinsic value investment is more to long term whereby time the market is more to short to mid term.

If something happen against your prediction, a fundamental revisit is a must. The meaning of FA for a long term investment is to assist you to measure its fundamental from time to time. Long term investment does not ask you keep it forever by ignore things which are getting worse.

Fundamental analysis is a measurement tool for you to judge the investment whether still in good position.

Thus, if you able to build up your FA skill well, it will definitely help you to reduce mistake and investment risk. At least 7 out of 10 stocks you buy are making good profit, it will be good enough. If you able to do in proper manner, I don't see any reason it can't be a surely profitable investment in long run.

Stock market is a money game. As an investor, if you think you can't make a surely profitable investment in long run, I don't see any reason why you should still stay in stock market. It will be a disaster for an investor who is playing a game just purely depend on the luck.

Sunday, 24 May 2015

【版权】| Copyright

昨晚在某些投资网站溜溜,既然看到笔者的几个作品被仿制又没交代来源。其中一个贴已在此部落格分享,其他都是只在一个论坛活动的聚会而分享。版权,必须被尊重,尤其是已经被作者写出来,而不是单凭口讲的。作品已经公布在作者的部落格,如果被仿制来转分享,必须放入原作人的名。给予那些连笔者都没公开的作品也拿来仿制,简直是太过分!笔者将不在此指名道姓,但希望此人看到此贴后会反省。

无意中也看到某些投资者对基本面+长期投资+包赚的不认同看法。其实,所谓的长期投资很多都被人误解。给予一位有经验和基本分析能力的人,也许他们会有跟我有同样的思维。关于此话题,笔者过后再跟大家谈谈。

I have visited some investment related websites on yesterday night. Surprisingly, I found some of my articles have been copied yet do not review the source of writer name. One of the article has been posted in this blog and others were shared in a talk organized by a investment forum. Copyright must be respected especially in written form (compared to verbal talk). For the article already posted in blog is well come to share again but it need to mention the source of writer name or link. For those articles which never post by writer but posted by 3rd party, I shall say he/she is having a very bad manner in sharing. I will not mention the name but hope this person will realize what need to do after read this post.

At the same time, I found some investors are still unsure the meaning of (fundamental analysis + long term investment + surely profit). The term and meaning of long term investment is mostly been twisted by public. For an investor which are experienced and coupled with FA skill, he/she should has the same thinking alike me. I will discuss more on this topic in next post.

Friday, 1 May 2015

【公告】| Announcement

由于FB户口出现状况,笔者不能进入FB的户口。所以将会弃用之前的FB Group。
[ https://www.facebook.com/groups/472465709560846/ ](弃用)

过后将会以FB Page来取代。此FB Page的好处是不必通过要求加入就能看到笔者的分析和分享。比较复杂性或需要多文字的回答,可以通过此FB Page解答。
[ https://www.facebook.com/y2kinvestmentblog ](取代旧的FB Group)

笔者发现,后期分享的股,多数都会出现大波动。所以,今年已经悄悄改变一些分享的方式。以后的分享,选择的股题必须达到以下的条件才会公布。
1)适合中长期投资。短期内(一年),如有突发事件发生(基本面而不是股价面),会尽量给大家解答。突发事件后,再重新考虑是不是还适合继续做中长期。
2)主要以基本面分析为出发点。所以,将会避免投机和内幕消息类似的股。
3)所公布的股,股价稍微会比笔者的平均买入价高。分享出炉在此部落格后,如果看到市场很不对劲,笔者也不排除会随时减持或套利。ELSOFT是一次很好的教训,因为笔者为了刚出炉的分享而觉得有责任性的不套利,而导致去年的部分回酬被蛀掉。
4)所选择的股,笔者预测在中长期里最少能带来50%的盈利。但不排除会发生于想不到的事情发生而导致亏损,比如错误的分析,公司突然发生状况,或大市崩盘。
5)建筑和产业股不会在分享里的考虑范围。不代表笔者不看好或完全不投资,而是这类股是非常难预测(预测的东西容易出现变化),所以才排除在分享的名单里。

所以,笔者的分享将会比以前少。加上现在不稳定性的大市,笔者必须做出更谨慎式的分享。

最后,笔者近期已经开始慢慢减持部分持有的股来提高现金水平。手中持有的股主要是龙马和非常少量的ELSOFT。也少量持有一只迟点才为大家分析的股。祝大家好运!

My existing FB account is facing some login issue. Thus, I will not use the FB Group anymore.
[ https://www.facebook.com/groups/472465709560846/ ] (Abandoned)

I have created a FB Page to replacement the existing one. The advantage of this FB Page is not require to approve to join the group yet everyone can see my posting instantly. For complicated and long explanation needed questions, FB Page is a good channel to solve it.
[ https://www.facebook.com/y2kinvestmentblog ] (The replacement)

I found that the later sharing stocks are having significant fluctuation in share price. Thus, the sharing method has been changed in this year. The coming stock sharing must come with below criteria:
1) Suitable for mid to long term investment. If there is any unexpected events (on fundamental, not share price) happen in short term (within 1 year), I will try to provide some analysis to decide whether it still suitable for mid to long term investment.
2) Selection is mainly based on fundamental. Thus, speculation in trading and insider news will be out of scope.
3) The share price during sharing posted will be higher than my average buying price. If foresee market sudden turns bad, I'm opted to make immediate selling (partially or full) even the sharing post is just shared. Elsoft is a good experience which I decided not to sell even I felt the market is not going well because I think I should responsible for my fresh posting. Due to this, it eroded part of my last year's profit.
4) For the stock sharing, I expect to have a minimum 50% return in profit unless something unexpected is happen and cause loss. E.g. mistake in analysis, unexpected thing happen to the company or market collapsed.
5) Construction and Properties related stocks are out of scope. It does not mean it is not good for investment, but just I feel it is not easy to predict (estimation may change easily).

Due to this, my sharing will be lesser compared to previously. Coupled with current uncertainty on the market, I will even put extra precaution on my sharing.

At last, I have reduced some of my share holding recently in order to increase my cash position. My current portfolio is mainly holding LANDMRK and very less ELSOFT. Also holding some quantity for a stock which I'm going to do sharing later. Good luck to all of you!

Monday, 16 March 2015

[1643] LANDMRK



公司简单介绍 | Briefing on Landmarks

http://www.landmarks.com.my/

1. GENTING通过PHOENIX SPECTRUM在18-Aug-2006收购了80mil的股数(RM2.00)。
2. 业务跟旅游业有关联。主要经营酒店,度假和健康医疗服务。
3. 公司未来主要贡献都是依靠Langkawi的The Andaman酒店业务和印尼的Treasure Bay(在Pesona Lagoi Bintan)。产业子公司,MSL(20%+1 share)也为公司带来一些贡献。
4. 在2006-07年,公司把大部分资产出售。主要是为了发展印尼Bintan岛的旅游业。(843acres,分多期来发展)
5. 第一期预测会在2015Q2完成。主要焦点是水晶湖(Crystal Lagoon),也配合其他景点的参观,零售,食品和饮料店。
6. 公司多年在印尼那边都是亏钱累累,毕竟发展期间必须一直烧钱又没收入。唯一的收入就的靠The Andaman。长期都是付出比收入多,所以还不能达到一个盈利的平衡点。只要印尼的发展开始带来收入,公司前景就变得明朗化了。
7. 2014Q4的NTA为RM3.68。今天的股价(RM1.25)。公司的价值简直是大平卖!
8. 2014Q3的Property Development Costs(发展资产)多达15亿(RM1.5bil),等于NTA RM3.17。在2014Q4,发展资产变为 7.9亿(RM0.79bil),其余的数目已经进入Property, plant and equipment了(长期资产的一部分)。只要完成Bintan岛的发展,这些数字到时就会变成收入的帐目。
9. 公司从收购,计划和发展,已经用了快要10年时间了,也渐渐要达到收割时期。所以,我们已经省了一个10年的等特。个人认为,可以买入股份来跟公司享有接下来几年的成果。接下来所需要等待的时间,应该不会太久。
10. 如果不想买入来等待,可以在看到公司从印尼那边开始有盈利才介入。到时也许需给高点的价钱买入。

1. GENTING reported that 100%-owned PHOENIX SPECTRUM sb had on Aug 18, 2006 acquired 80mil shares (16.65%) in LANDMARKS for RM160m cash or RM2.00 per share.
2. Focus on the lifestyle sector which are related in resorts, hospitality and wellness services.
3. The company is depending on its Langkawi's The Andaman Hotel business and also its development in Treasure Bay development (in Pesona Lagoi Bintan). Its Property business associate, MSL (20% + 1 share) is also contributing part of the earning for the company.
4. In 2006-07, company has disposed most of the assets to make way for its 338 hectare resort development land in Bintan island, Indonesia, known as Treasure Bay, Pesona Lagoi Bintan.
5. Its first phase is opening in Q2 of 2015. Phase one spans across 90 hectares. The main attraction is the 6.3-hectare Crystal Lagoon, South-East Asia’s first and largest recreational sea-water body. Also host integrated wellness and aesthetic facilities, featuring a 21-hectare wellness resort with services in holistic health management and nutrition facilities.
6. The company is making loss year by year as the main income from The Andaman Hotel business is unable to cover its high development cost in Bintan island. Due to this, it is normal to see profit in red. Once Treasure Bay development start to bring in good profit, we will able to see good accounting figure and a better prospect in future.
7. NTA in 2014Q4 is reported as RM3.68. With today's closing share price at RM1.25, it is consider a big discount offer.
8. The Property Development Cost reported in 2014Q3 is about RM1.5bil or equivalent to RM3.17. In 2014Q4, the property development cost has reduced to about RM0.79bil and the remaining has moved to Property, plant and equipment. In the coming future, this figure will slowly become an income for the company.
9. From the acquisition, planning and development, the company has spent about 10 years and finally getting close to the harvest time. As an investor, we have save a 10 years cycle in waiting. I think it is a great timing for us to buy in now and share the fruitful reward which is going to happen in years to come. I guess we will not wait too long to get share the reward.
10. If you reluctant to wait any longer, I guess you can buy in once you able to see obvious profit contribution from Treasure Bay development. But it will mostly need to pay in higher price.



ESOS

之前,公司有公布Right Issue来筹钱发展。但是过后此计划取消了,由ESOS来代替。以下是股东的ESOS的方式。ESOS的价钱是每股定在RM1.44

Initially, company has proposed to have Right Issue to get new inject capital for future development. Anyhow, it has been cancelled and replaced with ESOS. Below information is the ESOS proposal. ESOS price is fixed at RM1.44 per share.


On 27 August 2014, options were granted to directors and employees of the Group to subscribe for 5,145,000 shares under the Landmarks Employees’ Share Option Scheme. The option gives the older the right to subscribe for ordinary shares of RM1.00 each in the Company for an exercise price of RM1.44 each per share. These options are exercisable until January 2018 and will vest in the following manner.

Period                                                       % of Options
Immediately after acceptance of offer               40
2 January 2015 – 1 January 2016                     20
2 January 2016 – 1 January 2017                     20
2 January 2017 – 1 January 2018                     20



关于子公司的一些资料 | Information about Associate Company: MSL Properties S/B (“MSL”)


IJM Land, MSL Properties to build Wangsa Maju condo

By Haziq Hamid of theedgeproperty.com
Friday, 22 June 2012 15:06

KUALA LUMPUR (June 22): IJM Land Bhd and MSL Properties Sdn Bhd have teamed up to develop a condominium project with a gross development value of RM585 million in Wangsa Maju, Kuala Lumpur.

Seri Riana Residences will be on a 8.1-acre (2ha) leasehold site along Jalan Wangsa Delima 7. The first phase will be officially launched on June 30. It will comprise five blocks (two high-rise and three low-rise) housing 396 units. The high-rise blocks are 38-storeys while the low-rise are six to seven storeys.

Units in the first phase have built-ups between 1,382 sq ft and 3,375 sq ft with prices ranging from RM618,000 to RM1.8 million.

Seri Riana Residences is developed by Elegan Pesona Sdn Bhd, a 50:50 joint venture between IJM Land and MSL Properties.This is the second joint venture project by the two developers. The first was Riana Green East, a residential condominium also in Wangsa Maju.

The second phase, to be launched later, will comprise two blocks with 284 condominium units. The development is expected to be completed in 2016.

According to Datuk Soam Heng Choon, CEO and managing director of IJM Land, the first block is almost taken up. "Our first block of 183 units is 90% taken up by our repeat customers. We expect the first block to be fully sold by the time we officially launch the project," he said at a press preview of the project.

The project is targeted at residents of Wangsa Maju and Gombak as well as general Klang Valley residents.

Tan Ching Meng, general manager of MSL Properties, said Wangsa Maju is an ideal place for raising a family.

"We first came into Wangsa Maju to develop affordable housing but the area has since grown. Accessibility, facilities and amenities here have greatly improved. Wangsa Maju is establishing itself as an ideal place to live," he said.

Facilities at Seri Riana Residences include a 2.8-acre themed landscape park, a meditation area and a hammock area. The development also offers a sports centre, children's play zone, infinity pool and more.

Amenities close to Seri Riana Residences include the Fairview International School, Wangsa Walk Mall, Jusco and the Putra LRT line with stations at Setiawangsa, Sri Rampai and Wangsa Maju.

This story appeared in The Edge Financial Daily on June 22, 2012.




风险 | Risk:

1. 大市崩盘。此股每年只给1sen股息。被套了的股息率比定期储款更低。
2. 印尼货币继续贬值。
3. Treasure Bay的发展不如预测好。游客人潮低,运作支出大过收入。

1. Stock market collapse. This stock only give 1sen dividend per year. If investor is being trapped, the dividend yield is less than fix deposit interest.
2. Indonesia Rupiah currency is continue in depreciation mode.
3. The popularity in Trasure Bay is not up to the expectation. Number of tourist is low and the operating expenses are greater than income.



更多的信息 | Extra Information:

》Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Treasure-Bay-Bintan/250417141813719


TREASURE BAY BINTAN – A GEM OF POSSIBILITIES


- It tell about the 1st phase in details. Also the major development plan in 2nd and 3rd phase which is expected to be launch in 2017 and 2020 respectively.

Fast Facts and figures about Treasure Bay Bintan

1. 338-hectare total development project
2. 6.3-hectare Crystal Lagoon, South-East Asia’s first and largest recreational sea-water body
3. Multiple award-winning leader in health and fitness destinations – Canyon Ranch will be opening, 1st time in South-East Asia
4. 45 minute ferry ride from Singapore
5. 75 minute car ride from existing Kijang Airport, Bintan, Indonesia
6. 25 minute car ride from new International Airport in Bintan (scheduled to open by end 2016) 
7. 1,700 resort room keys in Phase One

Fast Facts and figures about Crystal Lagoon in Treasure Bay Bintan

1. 6.3 hectares, largest lagoon in South-East Asia with  115,060m3 or 115,060,000 liters
2. 1st in South East Asia
3. Patented and available in 160 countries
4. Eco-friendly technology, uses approximately 100 times less chemical products than conventional swimming pools
5. Energy efficient, consumes only 2% of the energy needed by conventional filtration pools
6. Crystal Lagoon’s innovative technology is sustainable and safe for the environment, allowing limited resources such as energy and water to be used efficiently. The lagoon operates in a closed circuit that only needs to compensate for water loss caused by evaporation


Treasure Bay on the hunt for visitors

Published: 24 September 2012 9:51 AM

The developer, which cites the “Singapore factor” in helping to make Bintan the next big thing in regional tourism, hopes to leverage on the Republic as a private wealth management centre in the region as well as a city of high-net-worth individuals, who may tire of tourism offerings elsewhere in the region.

Last year, 470,470 tourists visited Bintan, an increase from 300,000 in 2010. To meet the expected rise in tourist numbers, construction of the Bintan Resorts International Airport — which will cater to domestic chartered flights, private jets and cargo planes — began in May this year.

- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/treasure-bay-on-the-hunt-for-visitors#sthash.0X2YC54d.kwEgs5Ax.dpuf


INDONESIA PRESS-Landmarks Berhad plans $3.5 bln project in Bintan -Investor Daily

Wed May 7, 2014 8:55pm EDT

Malaysian property developer Landmarks Berhad plans to spend up to $3.5 billion on its Bintan Treasury Bay project in Indonesia's Kepulauan Islands province over the next 10-12 years, with an initial investment of $650 million, said CEO Paul Leong.

Landmarks will begin development of a resort hotel, amusement park, mangrove eco park and wellness resort on a 90-hectare site in the fourth quarter of this year, and expects to complete the project in 2017. (Investor Daily)

Note: Reuters has not verified this story and does not vouch for its accuracy. (Compiled by Jakarta Newsroom; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

Saturday, 28 February 2015

SUCCESS: Q4FY14业绩检讨 (Q4FY14 Result Review)

这次的差劲业绩(EPS 0.18sen)主要原因是SEB,子公司(汽油业)所导致。
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1890165

SUCCESS拥有65%SEB的股份,Q42014的业绩亏损了大概九百万。季报讲解是因为其中一个工程的开销管理做得不好。
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1890157

SEB的营业额占了SUCCESS的三分之一。所以,他对公司所带来的影响是不可忽略的。
在汽油价还没大跌前,汽油业未来的前景其实还不错的。现在连PETRONAS都大事公布会继续减少开支。所以,接下来的前景只可以讲是黑暗模糊。

除此之外,近期也要网友问到我关于SUCCESS的看法。经过我去年重新深入研究公司的帐目,我就以以下的回答讲解公司的问题:

SUCCESS看来其实很不错,但是投资起来也不太放心。
1)收债能力差和顾客的还债期限长。加上常常出现烂债。
- 这些烂债就如盈利的寄生物,往往所赚的都会被蛀掉部分。
2)现金流差,常出现负数。主要原因是长期的CAPEX都很高。
- 就如身体所所制造的血液,不能补回所流失的血。长期维持这样,体质肯定越来越差。如果没有办法改变,也许进ICU的时期,会跟股东们讨血来救命。

SUCCESS便宜也许是以上的原因。
这个问题也许是管理层以太过积极的方式把公司快速扩张而导致帐目达不到一个好的平衡点,也或许是这个行业原本的本质问题。

接下来的时间,如果公司能够把以上的问题解决和交出漂亮的帐目数据,也是就是他的爆发期。要不然,还是跟这位只有外在美的美眉说声道别话吧。外面的世界,美眉多得是,多到搭讪不完。

公司应该很难在1-2年内把帐目做好(如果真的能做得到)。加上汽油业的前景不明朗,个人认为,要以严格的价值投资法去投资,SUCCESS的股价要振作起来真的难如登天!



SUCCESS reported a bad quarter result with eps 0.18sen. This is due to its O&G subsidiary reported a huge loss.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1890165

SEB is a 65% owned subsidiary for SUCCESS and its Q42014 has reported about RM9mil loss. From the performance review, it mentioned due to cost over-run on a particular project.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1890157

SEB's revenue is 1/3 of total revenue of SUCCESS. Thus, its effect must not be ignored. O&G business still doing fine before a quick and big fall in crude oil price. Furthermore, PETRONAS has announced to cut its CAPEX and this will definitely bring bad influence to O&G business very soon.

Recently, there is question arise and seek my advice on SUCCESS. Below is my feedback which to include my view after I have done another round of further research on the company's accounting figures.

SUCCESS seems cheap and attractive, but it come with some cautions as well.
1) Receivable is increasing and the customer payment credit term is too long. Impairment on receivable is happened year by year.
- This will act like a parasite to the company and erode its profit every year.
2) Free Cash Flow is negative for almost every year. The main reason is due to high CAPEX.
- It seem like the blood generation in the body is unable to recover its bleeding. In long run, the body will getting weak. If the condition unable to recover in proper manner, there is a chance for entering in to ICU condition and it will ask blood donation from you (shareholder).

With above reasons, maybe it is why SUCCESS is offering in cheap PE valuation.
The problem may cause by the company expansion is too aggressive and cause it unable to stabilize its balance sheet yet or its is a natural of the company business.

I think big funds will only appreciate the share price if management able to rectify the problems, Else, it will only look nice in the outlook, but not inner side.

It is a challenge for company to rectify the accounting worries as mentioned above (if it really can happen). Couple with bad prospect in O&G field, and with strict fundamental selection criteria to invest, I guess it will be very difficult for the company share price to fly.