Nuffnang

Sunday, 31 August 2014

MMSV: Q2FY2014

今年第二季的业绩比我保守的预测好很多。但是业绩公布的时机在大市情绪不稳定而导致股价不能有新突破。个人也猜测部分的投资者趁着好业绩来套利,毕竟大市真的很难看。

这次的业绩,我只想做个简单的分析。这类型的公司,当他们在做新产品,很多面的消费都会令到早期的成本提高。当产品完成研究,盈利率就会提高。当公司又得到大型的订单,就会是高盈利时期。

简单来讲,很多成本都在第一和第二季付出了。第二季盈利率的变化已经是一个很好的证明了。第三季的订单应该不会少过RM10mil。所以,笔者预测接下来第三季的业绩,很大可能会比第二季的业绩好。

如果预测是对的,全年EPS=5sen应该有机会做到。现在股价43sen,Forward PE=8.6。给予一间基本面非凡的小公司,又有股息给,个人觉得一点都不贵。

但是,大市现在又那么糟糕。没票的人,应该买吗?有票的人,应该套利吗?可能有部分的投资会先套利,等大市稳了才重新买入。但是,便宜货通常都是在恐惧里而产生。接了便宜货,会不会变得更便宜?不要问笔者,因为这是很个人的决定。这也是令到投资世界里变得更精彩!

This year's Q2 result performed much better than my conservative prediction. Unfortunately, the result is announced in wrong timing and the share price can't perform as per its result. From my observation, it seem like some investors are disposing share during good result announcement. Bad market sentimental may become another reason for this.

For this quarter result review, I would like to make a simple analysis. For this type of business company, the expenses will be high during its initial stage of R&D for a new product. Thus, it will cause the cost of sales to be higher. Once the development of a new product is completed, the profit margin will be higher. If company is going to deliver a big deal for its customer, the following profit will be explosive.

In brief, most of the cost will be adsorb during past Q1 and Q2. This can be proved as Q2 is showing a much better profit margin compared to Q1. In Q3, estimate the revenue will not less than RM10mil. Thus, I predict the coming Q3 profit will be better than Q2.

If my prediction is correct, whole year EPS should able to hit 5sen. Current share price at 43sen, which mean Forward PE is 8.6. For a small cap company with such great fundamental and couple with dividend payment, I think it is not expensive at all.

Anyhow, the market sentimental is quite bad now. For those is not a shareholder, should you buy? For those is existing shareholder, should you sell? There may be some investors thinking to sell right now and buy back when market become stable. Normally, the cheap offer will only happen in bad market sentimental. Will the cheap offer become cheaper? I have no answer as everyone is unique and decision may be vary. This is the reason why the stock market is so exciting place to stay in!



4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks TS for your update on MMSV. Looking at the improved current quarter result and that of it's competitor Elsoft it's a good opportunity during these poor sentiment period to slowly accumulate MMSV if looking at long term. It's competitor Elsoft has been buying back it's share though not much likewise the same with MMSV directors which bought back more and Elsoft has also recently proposed to give 40% of it's profits as dividends and just a matter of time before MMSV increase it's dividend to attract more investors as a sweetener besides it's low PER if the profits keep improving. Comparing the both companies MMSV looks to be way more undervalued to Elsoft.

止凡 said...

同一支股票,同一個價格,同一個時間,總有兩個不同想法的人,一個買一個賣,才出現成交,這個交易場真有趣呢。

Anonymous said...

虫大你好,最新的业绩非常不错,你怎么看mmsv接下来的表现?能保持下去吗?

TS S said...

短期内,MMSV的最新业绩也许是最后的大利好让大家套利了。MMSV接下来的路会比较难走,因为接下来半年的业绩,应该很难有新突破了。再来个小股息,也许是他的奇迹效应。如果有,效应应该也不大。

以现在这样的大市,个人认为,其实应该把利好已经出尽的股套利。好好提高现金水平去休息吧!