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Saturday, 7 June 2014

TROP: Q1FY14业绩检讨 (Q1FY14 Result Review)

业绩分析 (Result Analysis)

个人认为,产业股是不能看单一季的业绩,因为每个工程的盈利进账时机都不一样。

Q1FY14的报告,未入账销售为RM2.4bil。
这次的业绩那么差,主要是上次有卖资产的影响。
其次,这次的盈利主要被行政及其他开支和融资成本(Administrative and other expenses & finance cost)蛀掉了。这些费用比起去年的同一季,多了RM30.5mil。
还有,这次分发给回子公司的盈利,Non-controlling interests,特别多,RM11.8mil。反而,去年的同一季为负-RM1.5mil。主要原因是因为很多收入/费用都由合资子公司(JV)的工程得来。(注:前贴的预算,都忘了这个NCI的影响而造成不准确的效果。)

接下来只要降低消费(打广告和传闻说今年的分红很高),加上接下来会有更高的销售值,就能把每股盈利(eps)拉高。

I think we should not base on a single quarter result to conclude the performance of a property company. This is because each of the sales billing stages are different.

Q1FY14 has reported the unbilled sales increased to RM2.4bil.
This Q1 result looks terrible because of the previous year of same quarter has reported with extra earning from assets disposal.
Second, the earning was eroded by high administrative & other expenses and finance cost. It is RM30.5mil more than the previous year of same quarter.
Lastly, the non-controlling interests (NCI) for this quarter is reported as RM11.8mil which is much different than the previous year of same quarter (negative amount of -RM1.5mil). This is due to most of the income/expenses for this quarter is generated/incurred from the Joint-Venture projects. (Attn: For the previous posts, this NCI is not put in the consideration which caused the calculation is incorrect.)

For the coming quarters, the eps should lift up as long as company do reduce the cost & expenses since the unbilled sales is in the increasing path. For this quarter, I guess the cost & expenses for advertisement is high in order to push sales aggressively. From the rumours, the year end bonus to the company's employees is pretty impressive as well.




2014年资产销售盈利 (Asset Sales Contribution for year 2014)

以下为今年的卖地的盈利(必须要在FY2014预测中完成买卖合约)。

Below will be the land disposal income in 2014 (must be realized within FY2014).

19-Mar-14        PROPOSED DISPOSAL BY SAPPHIRE INDEX SDN BHD, A WHOLLY-OWNED SUBSIDIARY OF TROPICANA, OF LEASEHOLD LAND

        Sales                          470.7        mil
        Net Gain                    170.0        mil
        EPS                           12.24        sen
        Completion                FY2014 (2H)

29-Nov-13        PROPOSED DISPOSAL

        Sales                          132.4      mil
        Net Gain                    42.0        mil
        EPS                           3.02        sen
        Completion                FY2014 (Q3)


2014全年盈利粗算法 (Rough earning calculation by annually)

产业股的盈利进账应该要以全年才可以比较好去预测。以下的数据,只是给予粗算的参考(详细算法就不多讲了)。预测盈利分为以3-4年的方式进账。如果某些工程是在2年内进账,就会造成前期的预测带来比较高的每股盈利。这也会导致后期的预测将会带来比较低的每股盈利。

The sales billing for a property company should make estimation according to yearly basic. Below calculation table is just for rough estimation reference (not going to instruct in details). The estimation is according to 3-4 years billing stages. If there is any sales to be billed within 2 years, it will cause the early stage of eps to become higher. As a result, the latter stage of eps will be lower.



2014每季盈利粗算法 (Rough earning calculation by quarterly)

以下的数据,再把以上的年数做成以每季的粗算。纯属房屋销售的盈利,2014年的每个盈利应该在eps 10sen范围。

The yearly eps figure can be further breakdown to quarterly for another rough estimation as per table below. From here, can see the property sales earning in 2014 is estimated to be around eps 10sen.



2015年资产销售盈利 (Asset Sales Contribution for year 2015)

公司还有2bil的资产要卖。预测接下来的2年还是会有陆续一次性的收入。
除了超多的未入账销售,丽阳跟其他产业公司不一样的就是这个连续性的一次性的收入。

最近卖的那个地,已经为公司明年的业绩打了一个eps 10sen的基础。再参考回以上的每季盈利粗算法图,就有一个粗性预测的2015年每股盈利数目了。

The company still has RM2bil assets put on sales. I guess the one time off contribution still can last for 2 years down the road. Aside from high unbilled sales, this continuous extra contribution does make TROP become attractive.

The latest land disposal below, has guaranteed the company granted with an extra of eps 10sen for FY2015. By referring to the above table (Rough earning calculation by quarterly), the FY2015's rough estimation on eps number should able to figure out.

8-May-14        i) PROPOSED JOINT VENTURE; AND ii) PROPOSED LAND DISPOSAL

        Sales                         448.4        mil
        Net Gain                   145.0        mil
        EPS                          10.44        sen
        Completion                FY2015


总结 (Summary)

如无意外,2014年卖地数目的进账可以贡献eps 15sen。加上今年的房屋销售盈利,预测2014全年业绩会在eps 25sen多的范围。

单单看每股盈利(尤其是加上一次性的收入),其实并不是很吸引。业绩以外的要点,其实已经在之前的贴提过了。

这次投资的选择,看来比以往的选择来的差。但是笔者还是相信,此股只要守下去,都不会亏钱。也许会比较浪费时间。可以肯定的,这个股是不适合长期持有。买卖的决定,就交回给大家了。

If there is no sudden change, the 2014's contribution from assets sales will come with eps 15sen. By adding in the contribution from property sales, its annualized earning will be eps 25sen+.

Purely looking on its eps (especially on asset disposal income), it seem not too impressive. In fact, aside from eps focus, I have mentioned the other key points in previous posts.

This stock pick seem like the worst choice so far. Anyhow, I still believe this investment will generate profit as long as you willing to hold it, but it may waste some of your valuable time on it. Anyway, it is definitely not a stock for long term. Now, the trading decision is up to you to decide.

Friday, 6 June 2014

Participation Analysis 【参与率分析】 @ 6-Jun-14

外资累积股值又在22-Apr-14开始超越本地基金。最近发生在泰国和越南的问题,增快外资资金回流大马股市的速度。散户的持有率也再次达到新低水平。
你有挑中一些外资的首选股?

Foreign fund has overtook the local institution participation accumulate traded value once again since 22-Apr-14. The recent issues happened at Thai and Vietnam have boosted the money inflow to Malaysia stock market quickly. For local retails, it has reached its valley for all time low.
Did you pick some foreign fund's preferred stocks?


LR - Local Retails 【散户】
LI - Local Institution 【本地基金】
F - Foreign 【外资】

ATTN【注】:
*参与率分析的开始日为28-May-12
*Participation Analysis is based on 28-May-12 as start date