Nuffnang

Tuesday, 29 April 2014

[7247] SCGM

每当选择投资的对象,消费股往往是首选。要有好成长条件的真正消费股,其实都不会便宜。反而寻找一些很接近消费型的股,偶尔会找到一些挺有吸引程度的股。这类型的股,就算是经济不好,还是会有很强的生存力度。唯一的弱点,也许是比较依赖产品材料价格的波动。只要所需的产品原料波动不太大,都是一题很好的投资选择。

SCGM在马来西亚注册成立于2007年6月29日。其100%股权的子公司,即LSSPI主要从事制造及买卖塑胶产品。只需上公司的网页一看,就懂得公司制造很接近消费型的产品。

When you are going to pick a stock, consumer stock is always the first choice. A pure consumer stock with good growth prospect is hardly to be in cheap price. Sometimes, there are some stocks which are very close to consumer type, will give you surprise in cheap offer. For this type of stock, its business will still able to sustain well in storming economy whether. The only weakness will be its dependency on raw material price which is exposed to demand and supply's fluctuation.

SCGM Berhad was incorporated in Malaysia on 29 June 2007. Its subsidiary, namely LSSPI is principally involved in the manufacturing and trading of plastic products. You just need to surf the company website, then will be able to understand its products are very close to consumer type.


公司的产品都是环保性的。根据管理层去年的信息,75%的产品销售给于食品和饮料行业,15%贡献于医疗行业,剩下的10%就是电子业。公司产品出口到海外市场超过40%的比率。
公司的销售市场如下:
【亚洲 】马来西亚,新加坡,文莱,泰国,缅甸,越南,老挝,印度尼西亚,印度,香港,澳门,中国。
【欧洲 】葡萄牙,西班牙,希腊,意大利,奥地利。
【大洋洲 】澳大利亚,新西兰。
【北美 】美国,加拿大。

Company's products are eco friendly type. According to management, 75% of its sales is supply to F&B segment, 15% is goes to medical segment and the remaining 10% belong to electronic segment. Aside, company export is capturing for more than 40% ratio.
SCGM present market is as below:
【Asia】Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos, Indonesia, India, Hong Kong, Macau an China
【Europe】Portugal, Spain, Greece, Italy, Austria
【Oceania】Australia and New Zealand
【North America】United States and Canada

公司也正在积极地打入日本这块大市场。如果大家有去过日本这个国家,自然可以轻易看到这种产品生存在大大小小的超市里。这种产品都是很普遍和广用于各种食品的包装。

SCGM的客户包括Munchy, Hup Seng, Hwa Tai, Mondelex (Kraft Malaysia) and Gardenia Bakeries。

简单讲解公司一些比较能吸引的条件:
1)SCGM预计将成为热真空塑料包装在亚洲最大的供应商之一。
2)打算今年再开设一个新工厂在柔佛州,这将进一步提升15%的产能。
3)不以增加员工来维持生产线为首,反而会依赖于更多的自动化设备。
4)拥有良好的派息习惯。股息也跟随业绩成长而增加。
5)拥有超过100个产品设计已经注册了知识产权。
6)能够制造自己的原料,使公司能更好地控制成本。
7)小资本公司,只有80mil股数。
8)最近有大型投资者/机构以RM1.25的价钱与SCGM大量买入3.13%的股份。
9)接近消费型的生意。生意简单。
10)基本很好。上市多年,稳健成长又能把债务控制的好。
。。。等等。。。

投资这类股,挺简单的。产能提升就知道未来会有成长的空间。接下来的成长程度,就必须依靠管理层的生产运作效率,成本控制,销售能力和销售路线的策略。所以,成长力度能不能维持就必须至少跟踪每季的业绩。多读跟公司相关的新闻是最好不过。只需以公司未来的内在价值和长期有波动的股价对比,就大概知道是该守还是弃。

今天,公司的股价收市在上市六年内的历史新高,RM1.53。以短期的股价来看,不算便宜也不算贵。现在的股价适不适合追高,笔者也不懂,只知道短期的风险自然变大了。但是笔者预测未来的业绩是很大可能会继续创新高!

Company is trying to enter to Japan, which is a attractive market for its product. If you have been in Japan before, you will easily notice that the similar products are widely using in all the supermarket and convinient stores along the streets. It is very common use in all kind of food packing products.

SCGM's customer inclusive of Munchy, Hup Seng, Hwa Tai, Mondelex (Kraft Malaysia) and Gardenia Bakeries.

Simple briefing on the attractive key points on SCGM:
1) SCGM is expected to become one of the largest thermal vacuum packed plastic suppliers in Asia.
2) New plant to be build in Johor and this will increase its capacity for 15%.
3) Company is going to improve production efficiency through automation facilities by minimize the dependency of labour resource.
4) Showing good track record in dividend payout. Its dividend will be increasing along its earning growth.
5) Company has registered more than 100 patents for its products.
6) Producing own raw material and allow the company has a better control in cost.
7) Small Cap stock with only 80mil number of shares.
8) There is a large institution firm acquired the company share at RM1.25 for 3.13% stake.
9) Business is very close to consumer type and easy to understand.
10) Good fundamental and company still maintained in good sharp since its first listing.
...etc...

It is easy to decide to invest on this type of stock. As long as there is room for production capacity growth, there will be growth prospect. The extend of growth rate is be very much depend on the efficiency of management to control the production cost, creativity to create new product, sales ability and strategy. Thus, investor has to monitor company performance by quarterly. It will be better if take a close look on any news related to company's business. If share price is fall under the intrinsic value of its growth prospect, it is ok to hold it.

As of today, the share price has hit its peak in historical price at RM1.53. At this price for short term view, it doesn't look cheap but not expensive too. I have no answer whether it is ok to buy at this price, but the short term risk is there. In long term view, I expected its future earning will grow further and will achieve a new milestone in higher earning!


Saturday, 26 April 2014

[7207] SUCCESS

【前風變壓器】【SUCCESS】

公司的背景:(Company's Background)

公司成立于1980年,也是马来西亚之一的最大低压变压器和工业照明灯设备制造商。

公司供的低压变压器产品在马来西亚是最全面的。还有提供大量的工业照明灯在国内和国际市场。

公司生产变压器和工业电源产品,如自动稳压器,电力线调节器,节能流明稳压器,高强度放电(HID)镇流器,电池充电器和测试人员。我们也做工业照明产品,如泛光灯,工矿和街道照明灯。

公司目前拥有超过850经销商在马来西亚。该公司开始通过提供,维修和配套的国内市场,也取得长足的进展在国际市场上。现在出口到40多个国家,包括法国,澳大利亚,阿拉伯联合酋长国(阿联酋) ,日本,韩国,印度,香港香港和新加坡。公司进军全球市场将继续快速和有效地推进。

对环境的普遍担忧使未来与能源效率和可再生能源产品,为公司的首要任务。目标是继续研究和开发这些产品。同时,公司将被定位为电气工业设备与广泛的内部制造能力,已建立的制造商。新技术的发展将被纳入公司的生产流程和客户服务,以尽可能有效和高效越好。

公司打算在主场以巩固我们的地位与卓越品质的产品可靠的制造商,并在海外加强公司的市场地位。公司的目标是成为一个可靠的,动态的和重要的竞争者,无论是在马来西亚及海外以产品质量和客户满意度的承诺。

2005年头才上市在大马交易所的主板。代表公司上市在主板快要十年了。2005年1月19日,最高交易价在RM1.28。快接近十年后的今天(2014年4月25日),股价收市在RM1.58。代表比上主板的第一天只高出30sen(没把股息和其他分红算在内)。如果以总回酬来算(把股息和其他分红算在内),回酬大概是一倍。

SUCCESS was established in 1980 and now is one of the largest low-voltage transformer and industrial lighting manufacturers in Malaysia.

Company provide the most comprehensive range of low voltage transformers in Malaysia and also supply a large volume of industrial lighting to both domestic and international markets.

Manufactures transformers and industrial power products such as automatic voltage stabilisers, power line conditioners, energy-saving lumens regulators, high intensity discharge (HID) ballasts, battery chargers and testers. The company also make industrial lighting products such as floodlights, highbay and street lighting.

The company has over 850 distributors in Malaysia. Has began by supplying, servicing and supporting domestic markets but have since made considerable headway in the international market and now export to over 40 countries including France, Australia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Japan, Korea, India, Hong Kong and Singapore. Expansion into global markets will continue to advance rapidly and effectively.

Universal concerns over the environment have made coming up with energy efficient and renewable energy products a priority for the company. It is the company objective to continue researching and developing these products. Meanwhile, the company will be positioned as an established manufacturer of electrical industrial equipment with extensive in-house manufacturing capabilities. New technological developments will be incorporated into the manufacturing processes and customer service in order to be as efficient and effective as possible.

It is the company intention to consolidate position at home as a reliable manufacturer with superior quality products, and to intensify our market presence overseas. SUCCESS aim to become a reliable, dynamic and important player both in Malaysia and overseas with a commitment to product quality and customer satisfaction.

SUCCESS has listed to main board of Malaysia's stock market exchange in early of year 2005. This represent for almost 10 years history. During its listing on 19-Jan-2005, the price price was peaked at RM1.28. For almost 10 years listing, the stock price finally broke its peak to reach RM1.58 on 25-Apr-2014. This represent of 30sen higher than its first listing's highest share price (without considering of bonus and dividend along the years). By holding the share since from first day of listing, the return is merely one fold after consider of bonus and dividend returns.


部分投资者对公司的负面看法:(Negative Perception on The Company)

1)管理层不够积极 - 如果有细心跟踪公司在大马交易所公布的公告,可以发觉公司一路来都很积极地通过收购仔公司为经销这条路程来扑未来之路。也许公司一路来都很低调,而导致公司给部分投资者的一个坏印象。
2)低股息 - 表面上,我是同意的。但是一间以成长为主的公司,派发比较低的股息是可以体谅的。接下来的2014年5月19日,也是公司历史以来派发最高股息的一次,4sen。别忘了,公司曾经在2006年给红股,2011年也派出库存股,来回报小股。
3)沉闷的股价 - 笔者刚出道的时期,曾经投资过此公司。那时给我的感觉是一间很沉闷的公司。股价温水煮青蛙的那样感觉。就是如此,间接觉得公司对小股的照顾没什么样。

这个股给我的印象中,很多散户都赔了钱。长期投资他的回酬也不怎么样好!投资其实是一道很奥秘的学问。在某些时期,看起来很不错的公司,但是投资起来的回酬就是不怎么样好。也许这就是时机的关系吧!笔者这次投资他,是以背离部分投资者的看法来跟他碰个运气,也不一定是对的。个人的其中一个投资方法就是喜欢做人不喜欢做的事!只要觉得赔钱的风险几率不大(就算亏也不会很多)就可以去马了!

1) Management is not aggressive - If you really pay attention to the company announcement in the bursa website, you will notice there are many acquisition/incorporation of new subsidiaries news announced by the company from time to time. For me, it is a aggressive way for the company to make its future path with better return. I guess the bad perception on the company is due to low profile habit from the company and also investor do not really get sufficient information in deep about the company.
2) Low dividend payout - From a very brief glance on the company, I also certain to agree on this. Anyhow, the company is approaching the growth path as the main objective. Thus, it is acceptable for low dividend payout in the past. There will be 4sen dividend going to be ex-date on 19-May-2014 and it is the highest payout (in sen) in the history of dividend payout. Be remind that the company have also paid bonus share in year 2006 and distributed treasury share in year 2011 as well.
3) Boring stock price - Author did invested on this stock in the past. I really felt the share price movement was boring and annoying. It just like a frog inside slow boiling water which the share price will kill you slowly and deadly. This is one of the reason caused me felt the company is not treating minority shareholder in good way (as the share price is not moving up at all!)

From my past perception, I knew there are quite a number of local retail investors lost their money and time in this stock. Even you hold it for long term, the return is not really impressive at all! Stock investment is not just a direct question as like mathematics question. But it come with some hidden messages for you to make a guess and make the investment interesting. Timing to get involve into certain stock is important as well. Sometime, I like to make decision against local retailers' will to invest on a company and just try my luck by doing that. As long as I feel the risk for the investment in low (even if I judge wrongly, the loss is limited), I will just make it without hesitation.


主要看好的重点:(Main Points To Invest)

1)拥有连续成长10年的公司,但是股价又不怎么样的表现。
2)低估(RM1.58,EPS=25sen,PE=6.32),股息开始有增加的现象。
3)拥有SEB仔公司的65%股权。SEB预测能从Pengerang油田发展计划中得益。期待SEB稳健成长的业绩和其股价走动的效应。
4)亮眼的年复合增长率。
      》十年收入的成长率 CAGR 17.92% (2013 @ 322,929 vs 2004 @ 62,105)
      》十年税后盈利的成长率 CAGR 33.74%(2013 @ 28,934 vs 2004 @ 1,580)
5)预测成长能继续。(注意参考2013年3月买地来发展的公告)
。。。等等。。。

1) 10 years continuous growth record but its share price performance does not impressive at all yet.
2) Undervalued (RM1.58, EPS=25sen, PE=6.32) and started to show some indication on higher dividend payout.
3) The company has 65% of share in subsidiary, SEB, which is a listed company as well. Foresee the O&G expansion activity at Pengerang, Johor will contribute positively to SEB. Looking good on the SEB's growth and also its share price movement side effect to SUCCESS.
4) Impressive Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
      》10 years Revenue CAGR 17.92% (2013 @ 322,929 vs 2004 @ 62,105)
      》10 years PAT CAGR 33.74%(2013 @ 28,934 vs 2004 @ 1,580)
5) Foresee its growth will able to sustain well. (Pay attention to Mar-2013's land acquisition announcement)
...etc...


基本分析:(Fundamental Analysis)

10 Years P&L Trend

5 Years FA Trend

技术分析:(Technical Analysis)

Monthly Chart

Daily Chart