Nuffnang

Friday, 31 January 2014

PRTASCO: 前景重估 (Prospect Re-value)

(A) 汽油业务(还没完成的收购)| O&G Segment (Under acquisition plan)

昨天公司公布了收购印尼气油公司计划书的变化:
》收购76%的股份,变为63%。
》收购价USD55mil,变为USD22mil。
》保证盈利(税前)USD50mil,变为USD22mil。
》收购限期推迟到2014Q2。
》看到计划书的资料里,有个头四年稳赚的条件。参考(d),(e)和(f)。
》税前保证盈利的分发配套如以下的图表。

PRTASCO announced some changes on the O&G acquisition S&P proposal yesterday.
> Share acquisition percentage change from 76% to 63%.
> Acquisition value change from USD55mil to USD22mil.
> Profit guarantee (before tax) change from USD50mil to USD22mil.
> Acquisition completion date extended to 2014Q2.
> There is term and condition on this proposal to make sure the company will only to make profit in the first 4 years. Refer to (d), (e) and (f).
> Distribution plan of the profit guarantee as shown in below table.
Source: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1530529 (page 8)

这个变化,虽然股份少去了13%,反而收购成本减低了60%。但是,税前保证盈利也明显减少了56%。低成本,低回扣,都属于公平的交易。给予那些不看好这题收购的股东,也许是个利好。给予看好的股东,也很不错。税前保证盈利少去了,代表未来盈利的贡献会比较少。尤其是头两年,贡献比较不大。第三和第四年的贡献才比较明显。

Although the share acquisition percentage is reduced 13%, but it will be compensate with much lower cost of acquisition for about 60% reduction. Anyhow, the profit guarantee will be reduce for about 56% as well. Lower cost with lower profit guarantee, it is a fair deal. For those shareholders who do not like this acquisition, I think it will be a good news for them. For those who look forward on this acquisition greatly, it seem like a good deal as well. Due to profit guarantee is reduced, the contribution for the first 2 years will be less significant to eps. But it will be a different story in 3rd and 4th year.

(B) 政府公寓工程的合约 | PPA1M Contract

之前预测政府公寓工程(价值RM578.5mil)的盈利率为15%,但是管理层通过一个通告讲解预测的盈利率为大概10%。所以,这个合约贡献也许只大概贡献eps7-8sen一年。

21-Jan-14当天,富达再下一城,成功地从政府手中拿到另一题可负担建筑房屋的工程。工程价值大概RM88.1mil。预测在一年半里能为公司贡献大概eps2-3sen。

从以上两题的工程来看,预测未来会陆续从政府机构手中得到更多类似的合约。

From previous 1MALAYSIA CIVIL SERVANTS HOUSING PROGRAMME (PPA1M) contract (RM578.5mil) awarded from PUTRAJAYA CORPORATION, I predict the net profit margin as 15%. Anyhow, there is a statement from company through a bursa announcement, it mentioned the estimate net profit margin will be abound 10%. Thus, the contribution from this contract should reduce to eps7-8sen per year.

On 21-Jan-14, PRTASCO managed to get another contract to build affordable houses with RM88.1mil contract value. The estimate contribution for this contract is eps2-3sen for one and half year period.

From above 2 contracts, expect to receive more similar contract from government corporations.


相关的前贴 | Related Post:
http://whytoocare-y2k.blogspot.com/2013/12/5070-prtasco.html

Wednesday, 15 January 2014

PRTASCO: 私募 (Private Placement)

【以下的文章只是属于个人猜测,并不代表真实的情形。】

公司建议私募50mil股数给指定的投资者。每一股就配送两个凭单。私募股的售价是最少RM1.65。普通的股东,将会每十股配送一个凭单。

凭单的转换价 = RM2.00
凭单转换比率 = 1:1
凭单的期限 = 5年

首先,我们必须了解这题私募的主要目的和运作。

私募,都是从指定投资者的手上筹到资金。筹到多少资金,就必需看私募股的售价。私募价越高,筹到的资金就越多。【属于短期需要的发展资金】
凭单,也是一个筹资金的工具。当股东转换凭单去母股,公司就会得到一笔新资金。转换价越高,得到的新资金就越多。【属于给未来需要的发展资金】
但是,转换价太高,就会造成转换去母股的溢价越高。溢价越高,代表越不划算转换去母股。

思考题:
如果你是被选为私募的指定投资者,当然要得到好处才会考虑参与。以高价私募给指定的投资者,看来很不利,所以公司就以附送更多凭单的方式给私募者。但是,RM2.00转换价既然是比现有的母股价还要高(溢价非常高)。看来还是对私募者很不利!?
以公司的未来情景来考虑,个人认为,这题都是双赢方案。
一,高价私募会带来更多资金让公司发展。私募者的回报就是得到更多的凭单和跟着公司成长。普通股东的回报就是得到少许的凭单,而更大的回报就是私募的资金将会让公司带来更好的未来发而激发股价的增值。
二,凭单的转换价高,也代表对公司未来的发展很看好和需要更大的资金维持成长。只要公司未来有很不错的成长,母股的价钱就会慢慢上升。到时,凭单的股价和溢价自然会反射到一个比较合理的水平。
三,一间拥有非凡未来的公司,又有不错流通量的票数,在凭单的期限还长,其凭单的溢价预测不会低,比如值得20-30%以上的溢价。只要公司交出不错的成绩单,到时母股的价自然会水涨船高,而凭单的股价也会紧紧跟着上。

预测母股价的走势?
私募股的售价是最少RM1.65,在私募定价的日期前,到底母股的价钱会不会一直被压在RM1.65以下?也许会,也许不会。
1)可以知道的是,RM1.65 x 50mil = RM82.5mil是最低的资金筹备限制。如果公司接下来的运作费属于在预测中,母股的价钱就不必特地去推高。
2)个人认为,主要是看公司和私募者如何达成这题协议。如果公司预测中的发展计划突然需要更多的资金,股价也许会在私募定价期前推高,而得到更多的资金。
3)在(2)的情形,私募者也可以在公开市场以低价买入母股,过后再顺手把股价推高来达到股价增值的回酬。

私募对普通股东不利?
猜一猜。。。
A)如果到时母股的价钱维持在RM1.65,凭单的价值如下:
1)凭单的溢价是40%,PRTASCO-WA = RM0.310(RM1.65x140% - RM2.00)
2)凭单的溢价是35%,PRTASCO-WA = RM0.225
3)凭单的溢价是30%,PRTASCO-WA = RM0.145
4)凭单的溢价是25%,PRTASCO-WA = RM0.060

B)如果到时母股的价钱维持在RM1.80,凭单的价值如下:
1)凭单的溢价是35%,PRTASCO-WA = RM0.430
2)凭单的溢价是30%,PRTASCO-WA = RM0.340
3)凭单的溢价是25%,PRTASCO-WA = RM0.250
4)凭单的溢价是20%,PRTASCO-WA = RM0.160

看一看。。。
情形(A):私募者的母股折扣价
1)凭单的溢价是40%,母股的折扣价为RM1.03(RM1.65 - RM0.310x2)
2)凭单的溢价是35%,母股的折扣价为RM1.20(RM1.65 - RM0.225x2)
3)凭单的溢价是30%,母股的折扣价为RM1.36(RM1.65 - RM0.145x2)
4)凭单的溢价是25%,母股的折扣价为RM1.53(RM1.65 - RM0.060x2)
情形(B):私募者的母股折扣价
1)凭单的溢价是35%,母股的折扣价为RM0.94(RM1.80 - RM0.430x2)
2)凭单的溢价是30%,母股的折扣价为RM1.12(RM1.80 - RM0.340x2)
3)凭单的溢价是25%,母股的折扣价为RM1.30(RM1.80 - RM0.250x2)
4)凭单的溢价是20%,母股的折扣价为RM1.48(RM1.80 - RM0.160x2)

情形(A):普通股东的母股折扣价(比如买入价是RM1.40)
1)凭单的溢价是40%,母股的折扣价为RM1.119(RM1.40 - RM0.310/10 - RM0.25)
2)凭单的溢价是35%,母股的折扣价为RM1.128(RM1.40 - RM0.225/10 - RM0.25)
3)凭单的溢价是30%,母股的折扣价为RM1.136(RM1.40 - RM0.145/10 - RM0.25)
4)凭单的溢价是25%,母股的折扣价为RM1.144(RM1.40 - RM0.060/10 - RM0.25)
情形(B):普通股东的母股折扣价(比如买入价是RM1.40)
1)凭单的溢价是35%,母股的折扣价为RM0.957(RM1.40 - RM0.430/10 - RM0.40)
2)凭单的溢价是30%,母股的折扣价为RM0.966(RM1.40 - RM0.340/10 - RM0.40)
3)凭单的溢价是25%,母股的折扣价为RM0.975(RM1.40 - RM0.250/10 - RM0.40)
4)凭单的溢价是20%,母股的折扣价为RM0.984(RM1.40 - RM0.160/10 - RM0.40)

以上的猜测,只要凭单的溢价在40%/35%以下,普通股东的利益都比私募者更胜一筹。但是,当凭单的溢价可以去到更高,私募者的回酬都会比普通股东来的好。

或者有人会问,如果到时母股一直都维持在RM1.40的水平,普通的股东不就是得不到任何利益?
一,如果是那样,所谓的凭单溢价都会去到很不理智的水平。
二,一间好的公司,股价要去到RM1.65以上,只是迟早的事情。所以,赚那个差价也只是时间上的问题。
三,没任何利益的情况应该只会发生在大市倒盘的情形中。到时,买什么股都是没任何利益!

所以,我完全不理解为何有人说这题私募的配套是对普通股东不利?

投资一个股其实很简单,只要未来有非凡的成长,股价就会跟着增值。眼前的利益都是短暂性的回报,就当作是一个红利吧(bonus)!

注:通过这个私募后,公司的每股盈利会被冲淡少许。


【Below Statement is just a prediction and does not represent the actual situation.】

Company proposed Private Placement of 50mil share. Each placement share will entitle 2 free warrant. Placement price is minimum RM1.65. For existing shareholder, will entitle 1 free warrant for every 10 shares.

Warrant conversion price = RM2.00
Warrant conversion ratio = 1:1
Warrant expiry period = 5 years

First, we should understand the purpose of this PP.

PP, it is a tool to rise fund through selected 3rd party investors. The amount of PP fund will much depend on the PP offer price. The higher the offer price, company will able to generate more fund. (Normally, fund generate from PP is for short term usage.)
Warrant, it is another tool to rise fund through warrant shareholder. Company will able to generate fund when warrant shareholder converted its warrant to mother-share. The higher the conversion price, company will able to generate more fund. (Normally, the fund generate from Warrant is for mid to long term usage.)
Anyhow, if the warrant conversion price is too high, it will come with very high premium. On such case, warrant conversion to mother-share mostly will not happen as warrant shareholder has to pay at higher price.

Let's think:
If you are selected to be the PP investor, the return on the investment should be the main goal. At such higher PP offer price, the investment seems does not bias to PP investor. Thus, company has offered 2 free warrant for each placement share. Anyway, the conversion price of warrant is at RM2.00 which is higher than current mother share's price. The offer looks not impressive due to high premium of warrant.
By considering of the company future prospect, I would rate this is a win-win proposal.
1. High PP offer price will able to generate more cash to company for better development and expansion. The return for the PP investor will be the more warrant given and the company's future growth. For existing share holder, the return will be warrant bonus and cash generate from PP to push up the earning of the company in the future.
2. Warrant conversion price is high. I guess it is due to high expectation on the company's future prospect and also higher cash needed for development and expansion. As long as company manage to grow well, the mother share will goes up according to its intrinsic value. Thus, warrant price will goes up accordingly.
3. A company with good prospect, high liquidity in open market, warrant still has plenty of time to reach its maturity, I guess warrant will offer at high premium (example 20-30%). If company manage to achieve good result in future, its mother share will goes up and its warrant will able to reflect reasonable premium accordingly.

Prediction on the share price movement:
As mentioned, the PP offer price is at least RM1.65. So, will the share price will facing selling pressure at RM1.65 or below? I think, maybe yes, maybe no.
1) One thing can assure, the minimum amount of the fund to be rise is RM1.65 x 50mil = RM82.5mil. If company is not require to have more cash in short term, I think it is not necessary for the share price to goes higher.
2) Personally, I think it will be much depend on the deal between company and PP investor. If company need more cash in short term, the share price should goes up higher in order to generate more fund.
3) If case (2) is the choice, PP investor should able to buy mother share at lower price  before push up the share price. By doing this, they will able to get back some capital to pay the higher PP offer price.

PP is not favour to existing shareholder?
Let's guess...
A)If the share price maintain at RM1.65, warrant value will be as below:
1)Warrant's premium is 40%,PRTASCO-WA = RM0.310(RM1.65x140% - RM2.00)
2)Warrant's premium is 35%,PRTASCO-WA = RM0.225
3)Warrant's premium is 30%,PRTASCO-WA = RM0.145
4)Warrant's premium is 25%,PRTASCO-WA = RM0.060

B)If the share price maintain at RM1.80, warrant value will be as below:
1)Warrant's premium is 35%,PRTASCO-WA = RM0.430
2)Warrant's premium is 30%,PRTASCO-WA = RM0.340
3)Warrant's premium is 25%,PRTASCO-WA = RM0.250
4)Warrant's premium is 20%,PRTASCO-WA = RM0.160

Let's check...
Scenario (A) : Discounted share price for PP investor
1)Warrant's premium is 40%,Discounted share price is RM1.03(RM1.65 - RM0.310x2)
2)Warrant's premium is 35%,Discounted share price is RM1.20(RM1.65 - RM0.225x2)
3)Warrant's premium is 30%,Discounted share price is RM1.36(RM1.65 - RM0.145x2)
4)Warrant's premium is 25%,Discounted share price is RM1.53(RM1.65 - RM0.060x2)
Scenario (B) : Discounted share price for PP investor
1)Warrant's premium is 35%,Discounted share price is RM0.94(RM1.80 - RM0.430x2)
2)Warrant's premium is 30%,Discounted share price is RM1.12(RM1.80 - RM0.340x2)
3)Warrant's premium is 25%,Discounted share price is RM1.30(RM1.80 - RM0.250x2)
4)Warrant's premium is 20%,Discounted share price is RM1.48(RM1.80 - RM0.160x2)

Scenario (A) : Discounted share price for existing investor (If purchase price at RM1.40)
1)Warrant's premium is 40%,Discounted share price is RM1.119(RM1.40 - RM0.310/10 - RM0.25)
2)Warrant's premium is 35%,Discounted share price is RM1.128(RM1.40 - RM0.225/10 - RM0.25)
3)Warrant's premium is 30%,Discounted share price is RM1.136(RM1.40 - RM0.145/10 - RM0.25)
4)Warrant's premium is 25%,Discounted share price is RM1.144(RM1.40 - RM0.060/10 - RM0.25)
Scenario (B) : Discounted share price for existing investor (If purchase price at RM1.40)
1)Warrant's premium is 35%,Discounted share price is RM0.957(RM1.40 - RM0.430/10 - RM0.40)
2)Warrant's premium is 30%,Discounted share price is RM0.966(RM1.40 - RM0.340/10 - RM0.40)
3)Warrant's premium is 25%,Discounted share price is RM0.975(RM1.40 - RM0.250/10 - RM0.40)
4)Warrant's premium is 20%,Discounted share price is RM0.984(RM1.40 - RM0.160/10 - RM0.40)

With above guess, as long as the premiums is below 40%/35%, the offer will be bias to existing shareholder. Else, it will bias to PP investor.

Some may ask, if the share price maintain at RM1.40 level until the exercise completed, does it mean existing shareholder will be the loser?
1. If this is the case, it mean the warrant premium will become unrealistic.
2. A company with good prospect, it is just a matter of time in order for the share price goes up to RM1.65 or above. So, the beta of capital gain will be realized in coming future.
3. Existing will become a loser if the market sentimental is very bad. In such situation, I think most of the inventors (in other stocks) will become a loser as well.

Thus, there is no reason for me to categorize this PP as a bad proposal to existing shareholder.

It will be simple way to invest in a stock. As long as the company prospect is very good, the share price will goes up according to its intrinsic value. The immediate short term gain will only be a bonus to me.

Remark: Through this PP, the eps will be diluted accordingly.

Sunday, 12 January 2014

切入点 vs 心态 (Time The Trend vs Mentality Management)

切入点 vs 心态:(快而准+肯定性难预测 vs 慢而稳+肯定性明显高)

很多人喜欢等个股上升的趋势才介入一个一直追踪着的股(比如A股)。虽然眼前看好,但是就是“等”的因素,所以迟迟不买入。以这样心态的人,往往会把所剩的钱投入其他已经在上升趋势的股(比如B股)。毕竟大部分人都喜欢看到比较快的眼前回酬。

情形一:
在这个时期,如果压中了上升趋势的股(B股)带来盈利了,投资者往往会继续守,毕竟上升趋势不会在短期内完毕。所以,虽然看到A股开始有上升趋势,投资者还是无动于中。也许,有部分投资者会做换马的决定(条件:B股价暴涨过头/知道A股的基本面远远好过B股和要果断的决定)。
效果:(1)过后的A股或B股那个可以赚得比较多,就要看个股的条件。自找烦恼。回酬也许会是比较少或分别不大。(2)做得对又做得秒。投资心态很强的投资者。回酬赚更多。

情形二:
要不然,压错了,短期没赚钱或亏着钱,A股开始飙了(尤其是一下起了10%以上)。可以肯定,大部分的投资者的心态会不舍得放弃之前的B股,因为心理因素不能接受A股突然起了很多和B股面临着没钱赚的情况。
效果:(1)错失良机或(2)认错赚更少。

情形三:
如果A股的条件能给很不错的回酬(比如:50%),够稳,肯定性高,买入耐心等。不必太烦恼地达到预测中回酬率。
效果:预测中的回酬。

投资。。。都是选择性的决定。个人的心态和操作能力是一环很重要的因素来决定你的投资回酬。

以上的情形,有没有发生过在你投资的生涯里?以你的能力,会比较适合那以种投资方式?


Time The Trend vs Mentality Management: (Quick & Right + Less Certainty vs Slow But Steady + High Certainty)

A lot of investors prefer to buy in a stock that under radar (let's say Stock A) only when its up-trend is come. Even though the stock looks very attractive, but they put a hold on it due to may wait for a longer time in order for the stock price to goes up. For this type of investor, their on hand cash will mostly goes into another stock which is already in up-trend condition (let's say Stock B). This will be a common case due to investor prefer to get immediate return once invested on a stock.

Scenario 1:
For such case, if investor choose it correctly and get immediate return on stock B, they mostly will continue to keep it due to the up-trend won't stop in short period. Thus, even stock A is show indication on up-trend, they may just ignore it. Anyhow, some investor may decide to switch to stock A with condition that stock B is already up too much or they have a very firm decision to switch due to stock A is much better in term of fundamental and prospect.
Effect: (1) At the end, the performance for the stock A and B will mostly depend on its fundamental and prospect. Need to make a lot of consideration by doing this. The return may less or doesn't much different if miss out the necessary switching. (2) If time the stock trend correctly in all the cases, the return will be much greater than most of the investors. This can be done if you are a great investor with strong mentality management.

Scenario 2:
If investor invested in stock B without immediate return or making loss, they will mostly not switch to stock A (especially the stock price spike up at 10% or more in short period) due to mentality management is not easy to handle in such a condition.
Effect: (1) Miss out the good chance to invest in stock A (cash stuck at stock B). (2) Admit mistake by switch to stock A but will earn much lesser.

Scenario 3:
If you knew stock A is very great in term of fundamental & prospect, very high certainty and will able to provide you a great return (let's say 50%), just invest on it by put more patient on it. This way will be less troublesome in investment decision making.
Effect: You may get the return as per your prediction.

Investment is a selective and subjective decision for investor. Mentality management and the way you handle each situation will be the main contributor to your investment return rate.

Along the investment life, do you face this kind of situation? What is the best way for you to handle it?