Nuffnang

Sunday, 6 January 2013

[5125] PANTECH

放入旧帖。这是我在2012年5月就开始对PANTECH【鹏达集团】做的分析。
(No English version available for this analysis as it is old thread.)

 公司的条件:
1. 未来: 预测未来五年的revenue可以增长一倍。不代表net profit会同步,因为生意的竞争。强烈的竞争,也许margin会维持在比较低的水平。
2. 底线: 股息>6%。如果经济放緩(不太糟糕),公司擴充的收入,可以平衡回公司的损失。自然也可以保持现有的股息。当公司的盈利继续地成长,股息自然会提高。
3. 股价: 预测现价在未来2-3年的Forward PE是大概>5, <7。
4. 信用: 顾客有名,可靠。管理层讲到做到(事实证明)。老板人品好(今天才收到的风声 )。三十大股东,基金占了十位。
5. 生意: 属于有週期。生意模型可以生存多几个十年。预测未来几年的需求会不错。还有大概38%的CAPEX会用来建厂/买地/买机械/收购子公司。手上的订单可以忙到年尾。

配合市场的走势:
1. 油价:起,需求增加。
2. USD/MYR:起,出口产品可以多赚汇率。
3. 原料:起,原料成本高,完成品卖价高。跌,原料成本底,完成品卖价底。凡是短期内有大波动,公司的盈利会有影响。最适合投资的时机是原料导致公司出现亏损的时候。

投资要做到,悄悄地买入,轰轰地卖出~

。。。。。

问1) 公司主要客户以油田开发为主,油田开发的budget allocation应该比市场油价走势delay几个quarter至一年左右。 可以看到油价在2008peak,一番的盈利在2009peak. 油价2009见底,一番2010-2011见底。油价2010-2011回升,一番2011-2012回升。 油价现阶段属于见顶吗?如果是,一番接下来一年的业绩会如何?
答1)客户也需要maintainance的嘛。油田开发当然是更好。两者占了多少我不懂。接下来的油价,我觉得会比较稳,毕竟美国都还没大选。我讲过,油价起,需求增加。所以会看到delay的效果咯。你也看漏了他的新厂(stainless steel)是在亏着钱滴。 原因?自己看报告就懂了。公司不会乱乱擴充生意滴。我也相信公司,因为他们讲过的事情,都一一实现。
这个股,我都打算做中长期。所以不怕股价跌,因为我要买在低迷的时候。我买入他,是因为要他4-5年后的成长。业绩可以增倍(revenue double up. net profit 可以增长50%我已经很满意了),到时大众看到了,会有如何的反应?

Johor这个大工程也占了一个很重要的条件来push up未来的业绩。希望能实现。
Petronas: Rapid project on schedule
Johor RM62bil refinery and petrochemical project timely

问2)  公司短期债务高达~170mil, 现金部位则只有~100mil.  如果欧债爆发,会不会有周转风险?
答2) 完全没怕过。客户都不是芝麻绿豆。加埋应收帐,要应付有多难。也可以随时跟大卡借钱。公司的prospect好,给他们好甜头,自然不成问题。 知道为何公司的stocks也那么高吗?去看公司的video clip就懂了。这个忧点,也是公司的优点。

问3) 公司好像过度大方。ESOS竟然高达46.454mil units(exercise price 0.67), 大约占了总股数的10%。 另外也有~75mil (exercise price 0.60),大概16%. 可以预见股价过了0.67之后,会面对非常大的上升主力。如果盈利跟不上,EPS的growth在短期内也非常难突破。
答3)以现在的价钱,ESOS竟然为公司从员工那边赚一笔。代表我这个股东还好过员工。你讲我才懂。 那些warrant可以不用管。毕竟是2020年才过期。给你,你会现在去换吗?还要多给60sen哦。:lol 就算是换了,公司给可以拿到60sen进帐目哦。我反而觉得现在的公司对那些ESOS与Warrant的股东拿利益,不是过度大方。做么老板要那么坏?
The ESOS options granted to employees, and the warrants are anti-dilutive and hence the calculation of diluted earnings per share for the current period does not assume the exercise of the ESOS options and warrants.
我反而比较赞同ESOS多过private placement。如果我是老板,我会回报帮我搞好公司的员工。Private placement多数只是益某些等肉送上口的人吧了。如果你看了报告,你会懂老板是个怎样的人。

公司的loan stock才会dilute earning。公司要借这笔钱,当然要给LS holder甜头咯。你不是LS holder,就要靠公司好利用LS这笔钱。自然间,股东也是有好处。LS这笔钱,暂时还剩下大概38%。

。。。。。



4-May-2012
Pantech on track for 2-digit earnings growth
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/i ... arnings-growth.html

2-May-2012
TA maintains 'buy' on Pantech
“The company’s carbon steel division has orders until end of this calendar year and is currently ramping up capacity to meet rising demand, especially from the oil and gas sector,” the broker said in a research note on Wednesday.
http://www.btimes.com.my/article ... icle/#ixzz1y9CGxrKM

11-May-2011
新產線投產‧大型計劃帶動需求‧鵬達明年有望增長28.7%
http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/47013

6-May-2011
Pantech plans RM150mil investment over five years
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/s ... 618577&sec=business

。。。。。


 PANTECH
PANTECH
 PANTECH
  PANTECH
 PANTECH
 PANTECH
 PANTECH
 PANTECH  
。。。。。

PANTECH EXPECTS DEMAND FOR ITS PIPE PRODUCTS TO INCREASE

CLASSIFICATION:
TYPE:
14 November 2011
PANTECH GROUP HOLDINGS is confident on the outlook going forward and that its expansion plans are progressing on track. The recovery in demand for the Company's pipes, fittings and flow control (PFF) products is expected to gain traction, both in the domestic and export markets.

2QE AUG 2011 RESULTS SHOW IMPROVEMENT
The Company's earnings for 2QE Aug 2011 showed Turnover improving to RM100.6m, up 3.5% from same quarter a year ago and up 5.5% QoQ. Trading sales accounted for roughly 60% of total Turnover while the manufacturing arm contributed to the balance.
The recovery in domestic demand, which accounts for the bulk of the Company's trading sales, is still sluggish � although off the lows. As a result, margins from the trading arm are still at the lower end of its historical range.
MANUFACTURING DIVISION FARING BETTER
The manufacturing division is faring better on strong recovery in overseas markets. Sales continued to trend higher to RM40.6m for 2QE Aug 2011 compared with RM25m same quarter a year ago.
The
carbon steel manufacturing facility in Klang is operating at full capacity. Operations at the new stainless steel manufacturing plant in Johor Bahru are also progressing well. All six initial production lines are up and running at almost full capacity. The lines broke even at end-2QE Aug 2011 and should start to contribute positively.
Lower losses from the new manufacturing plant more than offset the slight contraction in Trading EBIT. EBIT for manufacturing improved to about RM3.4m for 2QE Aug 2011, up from RM1.3m in the immediate preceding quarter. Net Profit improved to RM7.2m in 2QE Aug 2011, up from RM6.2m in the first quarter.
STRENGTHENING DEMAND
Despite prevailing global uncertainties, the Company is cautiously optimistic. The O&G and oil palm-related sectors collectively account for the bulk of PANTECH's sales for pipe fittings and flow control products.
Despite domestic demand still being somewhat sluggish, capex in the O&G sector is expected to be quite robust for the foreseeable future.
National oil company,
PETRONAS is reported to be planning capex of RM250 bil over the next five years to develop new projects, including marginal oilfields, as well as undertake enhanced oil recovery from existing oil fields. Private sector projects such as DIALOG GROUP's Pengerang deepwater petroleum terminal are also expected to spur greater investment in the O&G-related sectors in the country going forward.
The gradual rollout of these projects
will translate into greater demand for downstream support services, including demand for PANTECH's pipe products.
PRODUCTION PLANTS OPERATING AT FULL CAPACITY
THE ASIA ANALYTICA reported Nov 2, 2011 that PANTECH's manufacturing plants are running near full capacity. The division has recovered quite smartly from the slump in overseas demand in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Sales hit a trough for 2QE Aug 2010 and have been trending higher since � despite the strengthening of the Ringgit.
The weaker US$ translates into lower sales for the company in Ringgit terms.
CARBON STEEL PLANT
The Company's carbon steel PFF manufacturing facility in Klang is effectively running at full capacity. To cater to the expected demand growth, a factory is being built on a piece of land adjacent to its existing plant. The
additional machinery to manufacture, primarily, high frequency induction long bends, are slated to commission by end-2011. The factory will also house a heat treatment facility.
PANTENCHis in the midst of adding machinery for another four lines at its new stainless steel facility. The additional lines will expand the current production range to include bigger-sized pipes and also fittings.
If all goes to plan
, rated production capacity at this plant will rise to 13,500 tonnes per annum by early 2012 from the current 7,000 tonnes and will be reflected in the Company�s FY13 earnings. Total Capex is estimated at RM40m to RM50m for FY12-FY13 respectively. FULL ORDER BOOK FOR CURRENT FY
The manufacturing division has
already secured a full order book for the rest of the current financial year.
PANTECH is also exploring options to further expand its range to encompass higher value and margin alloy products such as copper-nickel, duplex and super duplex pipes and fittings that are corrosion resistant.
Such a move would expand its customer base and market reach and is the final piece in PANTECH's five-year
plan to hit the sales target of RM1 bil by FY15. The Company expects manufacturing sales to account for at least 40% of total sales. Domestic demand will also account for a higher percentage of manufacturing sales, currently derived mainly from exports, as a result of import substitution. 


。。。。。

PANTECH GROUP EXPECTS MANUFACTURING REVENUE TO RISE TO 50% OVER 3 TO 5 YEARS
CLASSIFICATION: PRESS RELEASES/REPLIES/DIGEST
TYPE: News Digest
15 November 2010
PANTECH GROUP HOLDINGS
expects that 40% to 50% of the Group's Revenue will come from the manufacturing segment over the next 3 years to 5 years from about 20% at present. Speaking after the Group's EGM on Oct 28, 2010, ED, ADRIAN TAN said the Group was intent on the shift to increase its revenue base.

PANTECH is involved in the supply of high pressure seamless and specialised steel pipes, fitting and flow control solutions such as valves, actuators and controls. It also manufactures carbon steel fittings.

At the EGM, shareholders approved a proposed 1 for 5 BOnus Issue, an ICULS issue of up to RM77.25m with warrants attached on the basis of 1 warrant for every 10 ICULS subscribed for.

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PIPES & FITTINGS MAKER LOOKING FORWARD TO HIGHER DEMAND
CLASSIFICATION: ACCOUNTING/AUDIT NOTIFICATION/ANALYSIS & BUSINESS PROJECTIONS
TYPE: Short Analysis / Reviews
21 May 2010
PANTECH GROUP is expecting that demand for its pipes, fittings and flow control (PFF) products will pick up pace over the coming months said research house INSIDERASIA in a note on Apr 29, 2010.

The global economic recovery has gained traction while the credit crunch is easing, making it easier to obtain financing. Crude oil prices have strengthened on the back of expectations the recovery will support rising demand going forward. Crude oil futures have stayed well above US$80 (RM256.80) per barrel in recent weeks. This, in turn, has bolstered confidence for oil companies to initiate new exploration and production activities and revive projects postponed during the worst of the financial crisis.
DECLINE IN 2009
The sharp decline in demand, both domestic and overseas in 2009 saw PANTECH's sales falling 21% YoY for FYE Feb 2010. The trading business � mostly domestic sales � contracted by about 14% YoY while manufacturing, primarily for exports, contracted a sharper 45% YoY. The drop in utilisation resulted in lower operating margins. After adjusting for one-off charges and writebacks, PANTECH's Net Profit declined 33% YoY for FYE Feb 2010.
PLANT RUNNING AT FULL CAPACITY
With its largest customer segment in the oil and gas sector,' its manufacturing plant is running back at near full capacity. We estimate the Company's current order book is sufficient to keep it busy for the next three to four months said INSIDERASIA.
SALES & NET PROFIT ESTIMATES
INSIDERASIA estimates that sales will resume growth, by roughly 10%, to RM442m for FYE Feb 2011. The manufacturing arm is expected to register strong double-digit growth, from a low base in FY10, but the trading division will still account for the biggest share of total revenue.

INSIDERASIA also estimates that Net profit will improve to RM51.4m, which is about 11% higher YoY after adjusting for one-off items like start-up costs related to its new manufacturing outfit � which should see margins improve over the longer term.

INSIDERASIA estimates PANTECH's shares trading at attractive forward P/E of only about 6.7 multiples at end Apr 2010.

Manufacturing expansion is expected to double revenue in five years. The Company first started manufacturing a segment of its PFF product range, primarily carbon steel fittings like elbows, tees, end-caps and long bends, back in 2000.
GOOD OVERSEAS REPUTATION & EXPANDED CAPACITY
PANTECH has
established a good reputation among overseas clients, which currently account for the bulk of manufacturing sales. Capacity too has been gradually expanded to the present 16,500 tonnes per year. This will be further raised to 22,500 tonnes once ongoing construction for a brand new manufacturing facility in Johor Bahru is completed, targeted before end-2010.

The new plant is slated to produce higher value-added stainless steel PFF products. Part of the output will go towards import substitution for its domestic trading business while the remainder will likely be exported. The plan is to expand capacity at this new plant further, by up to another 6,000 tonnes, while its output range will be widened to include alloy-based pipes and fittings.
SAUDI JV SLOWER PROGRESS
Its JV in Saudi Arabia is progressing at a slower pace. The venture, to produce carbon steel PFF products, will give PANTECH a leg up in the lucrative Middle East market, catering to major oil companies like SAUDI ARAMCO (the state-owned national oil company of Saudi Arabia) as well as downstream customers such as SAUDI BASIC INDUSTRIES (one of the five largest petrochemical companies in the world).
CAPEX TO BE HIGH IN NEXT FEW YEARS
Capex will be high over the next few years, totalling an estimated RM220m or so for FY11-FY13.

INSIDERASIA is of the view that PANTECH's Balance Sheet is strong enough to support its expansion plans and maintain a fairly good dividend payout. Gearing stood at just about 24% at end-FYE Feb 2010 with Net Debts totalling RM56.9m.

The Company declared single-tier dividends totalling 4.2 sen per share for FYE Feb 2010, including a Final Dividend of 1.2 sen per share, which is yet to be paid. That translates into a Net Yield of 4.6% for shareholders.

INSIDERASIA said that given the higher Capex to be incurred and dividends sustained at FYE Feb 2010 levels, gearing is expected to rise as high as 53%, which remains within the manageable range, before being pared back as the Company's returns improve once the new plant is operating at optimal levels.  

《完》 

[8966] PRLEXUS

放入旧帖。这是我在2012年2-3月就开始对PRLEXUS【寶翔控股】做的分析。部分分析写的太散,所以只放入最主要的重点分析。
(No English version available for this analysis as it is old thread.)
寶翔控股,是宝还是草?

业绩

PRLEXUS

1)在2005年,MFA废除了一个条例,造成紡織品和服裝行业更加竞争化。这题变化,导致公司的主要业务开始面临亏损,尤其是刚开始的头两年,2006-2007。
Multi Fibre Arrangement
2)在2010年,公司把次要业务大力发展,消费为3mil。
Powerscreen moves aggressively in 2010

PRLEXUS
3)欧洲市场的需求,从2004年的50mil收入,慢慢地下滑倒2010年的11mil。2011年开始看到一些回弹。
4)在2011年,公司在美国高需求下,为公司带来了整40%的增长。在最近的3Q‘2012的业绩来看,美国的需求量还是能够维持在2011年的水平。
5)中国的业务,开始在2010年尾为公司带来盈利。2011年为公司带来2mil的收入。今年总共3Q的收入接近10mil。
6)之前有提过,公司也在吉兰丹开了一间服裝生产线。

PRLEXUS

3Q'2012的业绩数据,能看到公司的债务达到了十年内的最低水平。
公司着从2007年就没再给股息 + 管理的素质 + 2007年,在公司周转不来下,欠AEGIS ONE一笔25mil的烂帐 + 公司的透明度,等等的问题。。。在业绩暴涨之下,导致股价追不上应有的水平。以现在的股价来评估,公司只是值得2.6倍的PE。

股息

PRLEXUS
1)除了公司的前景与透明度,最有效的方法来吸引大众对公司的兴趣,那就是股息。股息永远都是投资者的最好武器。
2)公司在2007-2010年里,因为retained profit是负数,所以不能分发股息。在2011年,retained profit开始时正数了,为何公司还是没给股息?个人猜测,因为公司在这段时间还没还完欠AEGIS ONE的那笔债务,所以暂时不能给股息。自从2007年,公司用了整整五年时间,终于在今年的2012Q2还完了25mil的债务。还得到一笔1.3mil回扣的钱。
3)如果以上预测的事情,都是对的,有很大机会公司会在今年的11月重新公布股息。如果股息有DY>4%以上,很大机会公司的股价有一番作为。
PRLEXUS
终结
2011的业绩大好是因为美国的服装需求暴增。中国新厂在2010,十月开始运作。服装需求开始有贡献。其他行业投资的费用,拉底了一些赚副。

2012与未来的看头是:
1)暂时看到美国的服装需求还是可以维持。
2)中国的服装需求比起2011增加五倍以上。未来会继续增长。
3)之前其他行业的投资开始看到好效果。Advertising Services(广告业)的revenue虽然只是total revenue的3-5%,但是margin很高,~25%。所以能为公司带来15%的profit。这个行业(广告业),公司还需要时间继续成长(预测比较慢)。
http://www.prolexus.com.my/
http://www5.powerscreen.com.my/
http://www.be-elementz.com/index.asp

公司的谜底已经懂了。接下来就要紧紧跟踪公司的业绩。。。

《完》

[7004] MULTICO

放入旧帖。这是我在2011年8月就开始对MULTICO【多元電子工業】做的分析。
(No English version available for this analysis as it is old and quite a long thread.)

【2011-08-03
这只股的历史很复杂。原本是一家很不错的公司。因为新加坡老偷钱的事件。搞到公司差点关门大吉。到现在为止,那些钱都不了了之,还没拿回。令到前四年没有股息派。过去几年的努力,公司的业绩终于从新上回轨道。今年也开始给股息了。今年三月尾,给 first interim 2.5sen。接下来还会再给。公司之前最少股息payout%大概都有40%。

为了安全起见,下个Q的业绩预测只有eps4.xx,payout %有30%。总年eps=18。全年股息=18x0.3 = 5.4sen。所以,下个股息=5.4-2.5 = 2.9sen。
今天的价@68sen。DY=2.9/68 = 4.26%。
如果乐观点,payout有40%,总年eps=18。全年股息=18x0.4 = 7.2。所以,下个股息=7.2-2.5 = 4.7sen。DY=4.7/68=6.91%。
如果更乐观点,payout有40%,总年eps=20。全年股息=20x0.4 = 8.0。所以,下个股息=8.0-2.5 = 5.5sen。DY=5.5/68=8.09%。
(去年赚那么多都没给股息。今年应该可以给多点吧?在加上以前都那么大方,payout 40%不过分咯~)

好了。。。这些都是看历史性的业绩数字。买股,我们都必须懂得他未来的业绩是好是坏。这样才能把风险降低又有把握赚钱。
Multi-Code and partner secure RM125mil Proton contract。。。这个新闻是在今年头公布的。里面讲到,125mil是五年的总数。所以,
Quarterly = 125 / 5 years / 4 quarters = 6.25mil。每个Q将会多了6.25mil的贡献。2010年平均一个Q的总收入是25mil。
每个Q有(6.25mil / 25mil =)25%的增长。PROTON的新车将会在明年的上半年投入生产。预测这笔糊涂帐将会为2012年的Q3开始带来贡献。
悲观点来看。。。到时候没有25%的增长。贡献给个10%好了。你认为还好吗?
再悲观点来看。。到时候,别的产品的贡献不理想。反而减少了10%收入。到最后,业绩是扯平。
但是公司依然还有。。。
eps=18sen。(不错吧?!)
DY=4.26%。(不算很高。但是这是底线。)
PE=3.78。(也太荒谬了吧!)

如果真的那么幸运,我预测的东西全部都实现。那,未来的业绩,eps=20*125%= 25。DY=(40% x 25sen)/68sen = 14.7%!(很贪心下哦~)

【2011-08-30】
元電子工業的资料搜集都做的7788了。
今天打算把季报里的数目看清楚一点。看看有什么收获。

在2011年Q2的报告,元電子工業的长期资产增加的一倍
这都是因为公司在年中的时期用9.45mil买入了一间新厂,主要是用来帮国产车做车灯的产品。
那是一个价值125mil的五年合约。预测将会在明年的Q3带来贡献。
当长期资产增加了一倍,公司的存货依然保持不变。很明显的,代表工厂还没开始运作。
从我所搜集到的资料,新厂已经要开始运作了。如何确定?那就必须看看公司到底是不是在请新员工咯。
从七月尾,八月头,可以在网上查到公司放了很多征募新兵的职位。
Description         31-Apr-11         31-Jan-11         31-Oct-10         31-Jul-10
Property,  plant and equipment         27,775         27,650         18,172         18,490
Change %         0.45%         52.16%         -1.72%        
Inventory         20,842         20,170         20,977         20,264
Change %         3.33%         -3.85%         3.52%        
从国产车给的125mil合约,可以大概算到可以为未来带来20-25%的销售成长。
试问,他的长期资产增加一倍,只能运用来做国产车给的125mil合约?也注意我以上所讲的这句话,“大概算到可以为未来带来20-25%的销售成长”。
现在的股价已经很被低估了,PE=~3。加上未来一年的成长长期资产的增倍以及今年开始给好股息,你还需要怕他的股价跌吗?还是越跌,越开心?

最近此股也由高位72.5跌倒昨天的闭市价61.0。跌幅大概16%。
奇怪的是,我的心情并没有因为股价的跌幅而感到压力。反而觉得开心,因为有机会买入更便宜的票。
比起去年的我,遇到这样的情况,将会措手不及,反而会埋怨。
投资快要两年了,在短短两年时间,我觉得很幸运可以达到如此的投资心态。
感谢论坛其中几位朋友讲解他们投资的策略与方法。我觉得不去预测股市的投资方法是最轻松不过了。
当然,要配合资金的分配,买好股息的股,被低估的股。最重要的还是要肯定你所买的股在未来是能看到成长的业绩。如果业绩不能成长或保持,好股息与被低估的条件自然会煲汤了。

【2011-10-29】
72.5sen(高点,不是我的买入价)跌倒去56sen = 22.8%的跌幅.我一股也没卖过,反而有加码的行动。
最近的2.5sen的股息我拿了。手头上的票,以现在的股价算,我还有赚一批。这就是不要去预测股市走势的威力!条件是你对投资的股必须有信心与把握!

【2011-10-31】
之前MULTICO 多元電子工業 (1)的贴已经有讲到他的重点了。
现在再以新的业绩来检讨与进一步地去思考。

重点:
未来业绩的成长率的重点当然是那个国产车的制造车灯合约。125mil是五年的总数。
资料:多元电子澳洲海拉 联获普腾1.2亿合约
**买入焦点(1):未来一/两年的业绩成长率。**

前提:Quarterly = 125 / 5 years / 4 quarters = 6.25mil。每个Q将会多了6.25mil的贡献。2010年平均一个Q的总收入是25mil。每个Q有(6.25mil / 25mil =)25%的增长。PROTON的新车将会在明年的上半年投入生产。预测这笔糊涂帐将会为2012年的Q3开始带来贡献。
(P/S:最新的资料透露是在2012年的Q2开始带来贡献。)

其余的重点:
海拉来头不小。如无意外,澳洲海拉与上海海拉将会在未来为公司带来更多的生意。
27/01/2011 TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE AGREEMENT WITH HELLA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD
01/03/2010 Memorandum of Understanding with Hella Shanghai Electronics Co. Ltd.

公司的业绩贡献来源如下:
Proton = 60%
Perodua = 30%
Export = 10%

好了,是时候来检讨之前对公司业绩的评估了
之前的预测:
1)保守预测全年eps=18。业绩比保守的数字来的好,2011总年的eps=19.48。
2)预测股息派发率大概都有40%。2011年给了两次股息,总共5sen。股息派发率大概都有25.67%。
- 我保守预测公司暂时会在未来维持25%-30%的股息派发率。思考到必须要多预备资金用在未来继续为公司来发展。
3)未来一/两年会有25%成长率。
之前已经有深入思考这个预测的成长率。自己觉得25%成长率是太过自信了。这是一个理想的数学算法。真正的预测算法应该考虑以下的因素:
- 国产车的新车在头半/一年的生产量应该会慢步提升。也许这是一般市场对新车的素质与抱着观望的态度。过了那个观望时期,如果车的素质不会太烂,生产量应该会进入高峰期了。预测能够维持到接下来的2-3年或别的新车的竞争(自己的牌子/别的牌子)。过后,生产量应该进入低潮期。(可以运用这个势来操作投资)
- 当有新车的生产,就有旧款的车慢慢被忽略。所以,之前为公司带来一定零件要求的旧款车,预测将会迟缓地下降。我觉得影响不会太大。所以,20%的成长率应该不是问题。
- 要达到20%的成长率,当然也要配合天时地利人和咯。比如:
天时= 天灾,必须不为公司带来麻烦。也许也能从中得到利益。
地利= 在大马,proton是不死的传说。perodua的品质,价格也是一个担保。未来十年,这个行业应该还不会有很大的问题。但是也要注意未来我国本地车(proton/perodua)与外国车的竞争势力。
人和= 高层人物能得到某些人的支持。当然,也要靠自己的能力。研究了一段时间,我对公司的高层有信心。

未来业绩的预测:
1)两年平均有20%的成长率
EPS = 19.48 x 1.2 x 1.2 = 26.18sen
PE = 67 / 26.18 = 2.56
DY% = (25% x 26.18) / 67 = 9.8%
2)两年平均有10%的成长率(保守预测)
EPS = 19.48 x 1.1 x 1.1 = 23.57sen
PE = 67 / 23.57 = 2.84
DY% = (25% x 23.57) / 67 = 8.8%

不管如何,我认为未来1-2年的业绩只会比现有的业绩更好。以现在的价买入,
EPS = 19.48
PE = 67 / 19.48 = 3.44
DY% = 5 / 67 = 7.5%
**买入焦点(5):安全边缘条件。**

买入焦点(4):未来大众对他的评价改变。这将要配合以下的两个买入焦点。
1) 买入焦点(2):转变为高股息股。
- 以前的历史记录,股息派发率最少都有40%。公司用了几年时间的努力,2010年才刚刚上回轨道。公司发展暂时必须要有好的流动现金,所以25%的股息派发率(DY%=7.5%)可以算是很不错了。在多两年,我觉得公司的状况会更完美。要注意的是,TOP15大股东,已经有8为是姓GOH的家族成员了。之前(在还没发生偷钱事件期间)也有基金是这个公司的大股东。那件事情发生后,既然地,基金们是不可能投资这间公司了。以这样种种的情景去思考,你认为未来会有更好的股息派发率吗?
2) 买入焦点(3):管理层对公司的前景,允诺。
- 高层有讲过会为公司提高生产效率与生产量。这点做到了。他们能够用更少的人手,带来同样/更高的生产量。
- 高层也有允诺去寻找更多的新生意,这点我可以通过志同道合的朋友打听到,高层人物真的很积极去努力。
- 自从发生新加坡老偷钱的事件,我不认为老板会再次给自己犯同样的错误。反而,能领到老板更加谨慎在于它的管理。

累了,暂时写着那么多先。迟点再讲讲可能对公司不利的因素。

【2011-10-31】

以下的project讲解公司如何提高生产效率与生产量。
Improvement Project: 3-Multi Code Electronics

其余资料:MAJAICO A-1 Gala Dinner & Award Ceremony


【2011-11-20 】

Proton Tuah 是 Proton Persona的代替者。预测明年二月将会在市场发行。
多元電子工業的车灯工程就是供应给予Proton Tuah这个牌子。
看了以下的照片。你会有什么感觉?多元電子工業的新产品的素质,将由你的感觉来做标准。
http://paultan.org/2010/12/02/pr ... generation-persona/
http://www.proton.com/Models/Our ... es/Proton-Tuah.aspx

接下来,Proton Tuah的价钱方面,我希望它不会太贵。也会在车市场发行后的第一时间去看看车的素质。

自己的感言:多元電子工業的新车灯,已经成功踏出重要的第一步。希望他的米饭主人与市场主人能为他带来很好的惊喜。。。也希望是打入国际级的第一头炮 !

【2012-01-04】
技术分析:(技术面的东西,只是补助做参考。安全的投资,是要看公司的好坏。)

MULTICO
简单的分析。不看短期。先看这个股的走法。
A区突然的爆量拉高股价>40%。股价拉升得太快,流动票较少,就来个少量的打压(股价维持在A区的价格)。过后,庄家再慢慢收票。当股价有量突破A区66sen的阻力,就开始进入B区的价格。
B区,股价一直维持在B区的范围。庄家有买有卖。大股东在这个时期一直买票。去年8,9月的市很糟糕。庄家趁机会打压跌破入A区。这个时候,大股东继续出来买票。
C区,最近因为利好的消息,股价爆量拉升。也突破B区78sen的阻力而进入新的C区。以之前A,B区的走势,有票的人也应该懂得如何操作了吧!

看回daily的图,今天的天线烛。。。是一个不详的型号。

以上的分析只是针对技术面。如果是看基本面,有票的人就要有自己的想法与策略了。。。

【2012-01-06】
Revenue还看不到有很明显的增长。但是net profit提升了很多。长期资产大概增倍。债务控制得很好。

 MULTICOMULTICO

2012Q1的业绩比2011Q1的业绩增长20.63%。公司也开始初步生产新产品给proton了。
2012Q1的业绩那么好的最主要原因是营业成本降低许多。这个就是之前的贴所提到的一个重点(提高生产效率与生产量)。
2012Q1的业绩比2011Q4的revenue不分上下。2012Q1的net profit比较好都是因为营业成本降低了。
fog lamps已经开始供应。rear combination lamp将会在这个一月未供应。这代表公司会有更好的业绩在接下来的quarter了。
公司会继续把营业成本降低。还有。。。高层很看好接下来的业绩。

MULTICO

最近看到股价飘的很高。两个礼拜起了21sen。图看起来很危险。
所幸的是我的票在这段时间还没不见过。
我那么好定力的最主要原因是我重新回顾基本面。觉得还是一个很有价值的古董。好像看到她有V股的影子。 也有少许熟悉股价的走法。

下个quarter。。。股息股息。

《完》

WILLOW:基本数据与技术图 @ FA&TA


年对年的基本数据 @ Y-Y FA Comparison
重点:
1) 债务低,现金高(27mil属于固定存款,3.1mil短期投资),股息派发率在于60%~80%之间。
2) 应收帐有明显的提升。 工程多数属于政府批发,新加坡业务占多数,无需担心。
Keypoints:
1) Low debt, high cash position (27mil FD & 3.1mil short term investment), high dividend payout ratio at 60% - 80%.
2) Receivable significantly increased at recent year. Anyhow, most of the contracts are from government sector and Singapore segment is the main contributor. So, needless to worry.
WILLOW

基本数据 @ Q-Q FA Comparison
重点:
1)Q2'12 > Q3'12:收入明显提升了5.5mil。除税后盈利在于17.9%-18.5%。 
2)以现有的工程合约,今年的EPS预测能够超越09年而重新创新高。
Keypoints:
1)Q2'12 > Q3'12:Revenue jump up by 5.5mil. PAT range at 17.9%-18.5%.
2) With current on hand contracts, expect this year's EPS can easily break its highest EPS (2009).
WILLOW
WILLOW

分部业绩报告@ Segment Report
重点:
1)新加坡业务占了收入的80%。其余的20%在大马。印尼的业务刚开始,还在亏损中。
Keypoints:
1)Singapore make the biggest contribution to the company sales (80%) and the rest 20% is generate from Malaysia market. Indonesia market still under development stage and still making loss.
WILLOW

三十大股东 @ 30 Top Shareholders
重点:
1)没有基金在三十大。

Keypoints:
1)No investment fund among the 30 top shareholders.
WILLOW

资本及派息记录 @ Capital & Dividend Info
重点:
1)去年(FY11)股息给2.5sen。最高(FY10&FY09)股息为3sen。
2)今年的业绩提升,接下来的股息预测能重新回到去3sen。期待更高。


Keypoints:
1)Last year, FY11 dividend payment is 2.5sen. Highest dividend payment is 3sen (FY10&FY09).
2)This year result has improved significantly. So, expect the coming dividend payment will be able get back to 3sen. Anyway, hoping for higher.
WILLOW

其他:
“4.1.8 Change in MSC Status
Willowglen was granted the MSC status on 31 March 1998 by MDC. By virtue of this, our Company has been granted full pioneer status which accords our Company with five (5) years of income tax exemption on our statutory income commencing on 4 June 2002 and was further extended to 3 June 2012 for the maximum allowable period of ten (10) years”

以上的免税受惠已经过期了。但是预测对公司的税后盈利不会有很大的影响。因为主要的盈利是从新加坡贡献。(注意:新加坡所得税@17%,而大马的所得税@25%。)
》Pioneer status income tax exemption benefit has expired. But, expect it do not make significant change to PAT since Singapore is the main contributor to company profit. (Note: Corporate income tax for Singapore is 17% & Malaysia is 25%)

简单预测接下来的业绩 @ Simple way to estimate the coming results

算法(预测性):
1)今年(近期)拿到的工程合约:
220512 - 17.99mil(必须在Aug14完成)《 预测每季贡献2.02mil
060812 - 9.70mil (必须在Mar13完成)《 预测每季贡献4.22mil
181012 - 5.64mil (必须在Dec16完成)《 预测每季贡献0.34mil
181012 - 4.32mil (必须在Jun18完成)《 预测每季贡献0.19mil
181212 - 12.37mil(必须在Jun14完成)《 预测每季贡献2.10mil
2)今年(近期)会完成的工程合约:
060909 - 7.50mil(必须在Mar13完成)《 预测每季贡献0.46mil
280111 - 9.50mil(必须在Dec12完成)《 预测每季贡献1.27mil
3)条件:(A)以Q2'12作为盈利底线来算(B)预测税后盈利率为17.5%(C)只是算能看得到的合约(过后再用折扣10%,15%,20%来给予更坏的预测算法)。


Calculation (estimation only):
1)Contracts awarded in this year (recent months).

220512 - 17.99mil(Complete by Aug14)《 estimate quarter revenue as 2.02mil
060812 - 9.70milComplete by Mar13)estimate quarter revenue as 4.22mil
181012 - 5.64milComplete by Dec16)estimate quarter revenue as 0.34mil
181012 - 4.32milComplete by Jun18)estimate quarter revenue as 0.19mil
181212 - 12.37milComplete by Jun14)estimate quarter revenue as 2.10mil
2)Old contracts will complete in this year (coming months).
060909 - 7.50mil(Complete by Mar13)《 estimate quarter revenue as 0.46mil
280111 - 9.50milComplete by Dec12)estimate quarter revenue as 1.27mil
3)T&C:(A)Benchmark Q2'12 sales as baseline(B)Estimate PAT of 17.5%(C)Only consider of visible contracts achieved from bursa/news. Follow by use discounted method (10%,15%,20%) to provide worse estimation for reference.
WILLOW

技术图@TA
WILLOW

WILLOW
《完》《END》

Saturday, 5 January 2013

[0008] WILLOW

最近我逆着风险累积了一些WILLOW。
以手上的合约,我预测接下来的2-3个Q会有不错的业绩。
股息3sen应该不成问题。只要公司没有大力发展(内部扩张计划或收购计划),最少也应该有2.5sen吧!如果有发展计划,都会对公司更有利。

以现在的股价来算(RM0.35)。如果,
Div = 3.5sen;DY=10.0%
Div = 3.0sen;DY=8.57%
Div = 2.5sen;DY=7.14%

预测明年的全年EPS会在5sen以上。如果,
EPS=6.0,PE=35/6.0=5.83
EPS=5.5,PE=35/5.5=6.36
EPS=5.0,PE=35/5.0=7.00
EPS=4.5,PE=35/4.5=7.78

必须考虑的风险因素:
1. 股市在高点。
2. 大选快要到来了。
3. 股价创新高。
4. 下个业绩会在二月公布。到时会有建议股息。而股息必须通过AGM后和在五月的业绩才正式公布。

迟点才把基本数据和技术图放上来。

。。。。。。

Recently I bought in some WILLOW by against the risk during uncertainty market.
With WILLOW's current on hand contracts, I expect the coming 2-3Q result will be pretty good.
My expectation is having 3sen dividend. As long as company do not have any expansion plan, 2.5sen dividend will be the bottom limit. Any expansion plan will be good for future.

Based on current share price at RM0.35. If
Div = 3.5sen;DY=10.0%
Div = 3.0sen;DY=8.57%
Div = 2.5sen;DY=7.14%

Expect next full year EPS will be at above 5sen. If,
EPS=6.0,PE=35/6.0=5.83
EPS=5.5,PE=35/5.5=6.36
EPS=5.0,PE=35/5.0=7.00
EPS=4.5,PE=35/4.5=7.78

Risk consideration:
1. KLCI at new high.
2. Election is just around the corner.
3. Stock price hit its new high.
4. The coming result will be announce on Feb-13, dividend will be propose. Dividend proposal need to get approval during AGM and only to be declared at May-13's quarterly result announcement.

I will post FA & TA details at later post.

Tuesday, 1 January 2013

虫土归来 (I'm back!)

之前用来复习投资的部落格已经关了一段很长的时间。
乘着新年,新部落格即将重新开张!

祝大家新年快乐~未来的投资路上也一路顺风!

Welcome to my blog! Happy new year to everyone and enjoy reading!

【注】【ATTN】

这部落格所有的散文,纯属【个人意见】与【个人方式】来分享。
如有错误的资料,请读者纠正,也说声万分抱歉。


All the posts written at this blog are purely follow my own thinking and share it with my own style.
If there is any mistake on the details, pls correct me and I'm apologize for that.

【买卖自负】 【Trade at your own risk】