Nuffnang

Tuesday, 17 December 2013

Participation Analysis 【参与率分析】

Date: 28-May-12 ~ 17-Dec-13

以去年六月开始分析,外资用了一年的时间继续在累积股值。
大选两个星期过后,外资就很积极地一路减持手上的股值。
从最高峰到7个月后的今天,外资已经把持有的票减持了六成。
少了外资的参与,今天的股市还是照样创新高!感觉现有的股市都是自己搞自己爽,尤其是现在快要接近结帐期。各位基金管理员都尽量交个好业绩来保护自己的饭碗。

猜猜看接下来的股市会如何跑?

Analysis started on last year around Jun-12. Foreign funds are accumulating shares for about 1 year to reach its peak of invested value in Malaysia stock market. 2 weeks after Malaysia General Election, foreign funds are selling their shares aggressively. From its peak until today, foreign funds have disposed about 60% of the shares value.
Without a support from foreign funds, KLCI still able to hit its new high today. I guess the feel good condition is arise from the coming windows dressing effect. It is the time for fund managers to shape up their performance to close the year 2013 account.

Guess what will happen after the windows dressing?
Participation analysis


LR - Local Retails 【散户】
LI - Local Institution 【本地基金】
F - Foreign 【外资】

Monday, 2 December 2013

[5070] PRTASCO

【富達集團】【PRTASCO】

公司的背景,我不多说。资料可以从论坛和其他投资管道轻易得到。
让我们直接进入重点吧!

I will direct to the analysis without explain much on the company's business and its background. You can grab the details easily through other investment channels.

基本面分析:(Fundamental Analysis)

1. 过去六年,平均每年在EPS=12sen的水平。大致上来看,生意属于稳定。
2. 派息率都有60%以上。属于高股息公司。
3. 公路建筑和维修,贸易业务,房地产,都有明显的增长。接下来的未来继续看好。

1. In the past 6 years, its average eps is about 12sen. The business looks very stable.
2. Dividend payout ratio is above 60% of eps. It is consider a high dividend yield company.
3. Its construction contract, trading and property development segments are showing good growth. Its prospect expect to be better.
PL, BS & CF
Quarterly EPS
Segment Report

技术面分析:(Technical Analysis)

From IPO until now, it is already listing for 10years. Good prospect is slowly surfacing now. Thus, expecting it will reach RM2 as the first target price. The trend is showing double bottom and follow by great rebound with huge volume.

(From left) The first blue circle is happened during special dividend announcement. 2nd circle is made by share buyback from the company. The horizontal lines in between red and green arrows, is the private placement boundary. In 3rd circle, the share price pick up quickly and fall up even fast without any news in between. I guess the activity is for share accumulation and trap the shorten traders. The last circle with share price gap up and huge volume happened due to the company has been awarded with 1Malaysia Housing construction contract, which is came with a big value.


流动票分析:(Floating share Analysis)

在9-Jul-13,Lembaga Tabung Haji拥有接近公司10%(大概30mil)的票数。直到15-Nov-13,短短4个月,票数持有已经减少到5%以下(大概15.5mil)的票数。在5%持有率以下票数的股东,过后的买卖都不必再向股票交易所交代。
在这段时期,股价的价位一直在1.24-1.54摆横。我预测,在这段时期,Lembaga Tabung Haji卖出的平均价属于RM1.3x。对方以这个平均价来在市场买入Lembaga Tabung Haji的票,必须付出的价值是大概RM40mil。
试问,普通的散户有何能力来收买如此龙大的票数?我预测,主要部分的票,都是由基金或大型投资者买入。
试问,以现有的价买入,投资的风险会有多高?这个答案,大家心里有数。

At 9-Jul-13, Lembaga Tabung Haji is holding close to 10% of company share, which is about 30mil shares. As of 15-Nov-13, its share holding has been fallen below 5% (reduced to 15.5mil shares). After that, any buy sell activity is not compulsory to be announced in Bursa Malaysia.
During this period, the share price is fall between 1.24 - 1.54. I guess, its average selling price is about RM1.3x. In order for the counter parties to absorb its share, RM40mil value or more is a must.
Do you think the normal local retails are able to absorb it? I guess most of the part is done by Investment Funds or big cap investors.
How do you think about the risk if buy at current price? I think you should have an answer for it.



未来重点分析:(Prospects Analysis)

1. 拿到政府公寓工程,价值RM578.5mil。24个月必须完成。预测明年头开工。以15%的盈利率来算,大概平均一年有EPS 12sen。现有业务,如果可以维持去年的整年业绩,代表这个贡献有可能会把公司的盈利增倍(EPS 100%成长)。
2. 公司还再谈着收购印尼的一间气油公司。收购还没完成的原因,主要是因为公司要肯定被收购回来的印尼公司,能够延长(多10年)明年将快要到期的10年合约。如果这题收购能达成,在头4年内,将拥有USD55mil的税前保证盈利。如果税率是25%,将会带来每年大概EPS 7-8sen。
3. 拥有De Centrum 100 英亩总值60 亿(估计)的房屋发展计划,有10-15 年的时间发展。以十年来计算,每年可以制作6 亿的营业额(RM600mil)。
4. 其他新的小工程,如果运作费控制的好,预测能带来大概每年EPS 3-5sen的收入。(12年12月到13年9月的新合约)。
5. 利比亚工程重新开工。之前报销的RM20mil,有望可以从利比亚政府得到赔赏(不清楚是部分还是全部)。但是管理层讲到,接下来在那边开工的开销,不用出一分钱。
6. 2014 Malaysia Budget里,公布发出价值RM4.1bil的乡下基础设施建设项目。其中道路的工程大概有RM1.5bil。如果能够得到以上的合约,都可以带来营业额的增长。

》把这题数学算了一下,觉得很不可思议。既然越算越多!如果以保守的方式去算,好像也不少!简单的数学题我不喜欢做。那样就交给你们自己去算吧!

1. Awarded with RM578.5mil contract value to build 1Malaysia housing and to be complete within 24 months. The work is expected to be start by early of next year. Assume net profit margin is 15%, it will contribute about eps 12sen per year. If the existing business can sustain as per last year, this mean the contribution from this contract is possible to double up its eps. (100% growth in eps)
2. Acquisition on an Indonesia O&G company is still in progress. The pending work is mainly due to the confirmation of contract extension for another 10years for the O&G company that they are going to acquire. If succeed, there will be a profit guarantee before tax for about USD55mil. If the tax rate is 25%, it will roughly contribute about eps 7-8sen.
3. Its De Centrum property development which valued at RM6 billion (estimation) is able to sustain for another 10-15years. By taking 10 years as completion target timeframe, it will able to contribute RM600mil revenue per year for the company.
4. By considering other newly awarded contracts (since Dec-12 until Sep-13) and operation cost is under control, another eps 3-5sen will not be a problem.
5. Company is returning to Libya after halting operations there due to a revolution. Company has written off RM20m in provision in the past two years for the halted operations in Libya. According to MD, Libya is promise to pay back on the provision (not sure is in full or partial amount). Thus, there is no extra expense to be taken out to continue the works there.
6. In 2014 Malaysia Budget, RM4.1bil to be provided for basic rural infrastructure projects, including RM980mil to upgrade 437km of rural road networks nationwide and RM500mil for Pan-Borneo Highway project. If the company manage to get some of the contracts, it will definitely increasing its revenue.

》By making calculation on it, it looks unbelievable. It is a big figure! By making conservative estimation, its still looks great! This mathematics question is too simple for me. Pls do it yourself!


风险考虑:(Risk Consideration)

1. 官司案,如果被告成功,必须陪大概RM10mil的赔款。都是一次性,应该算是一个加码的机会。
2. 股市在高点,外围不稳定。看你是买公司的未来,还是买大市造成股价的变化?
3. 汽油业,是一个不知数。未来能够带来更大的盈利,还是侵蚀掉公司的盈利?外行人都不容易明白。唯一的保障就是那个税前保证盈利。如果到时这个东西也有变化,自己要好好思考思考了。

1. Company is under a court case. If lose it, penalty will be RM10mil. But it will be one time deal and should be a opportunity to buy at low price.
2. Share market remains at high side and exposing to unstable macro in worldwide. Just think about whether you are investing in a company with good prospect  or betting for a better offer that MAY arise from market crash or panic sell?
3. O&G sector is not a one plus one equation. There is a lot of unknown especially for outsider. Layman may not able to estimate it will boost up earning for company or an erosion to the earning. The profit guarantee before tax is the only point that can ease my mind in short term. If this can't help, you should think able your next step.

关于汽油业的新闻:(Some news regarding O&G sector)

【2013年10月02日】
富达:待符合条件 稍延收购印尼油气商

【FY13Q3季报】
Source: http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/edmswebh.nsf/all/AEF25E8E697F41E248257C41005D934B/$File/PB%20Q3%202013%20Notes.pdf (page 10)

Sunday, 10 November 2013

[7122] YFG

之前买入YFG【裕丰】纯属是投机。毕竟是投机,所以当时只看2013年里的资料。通过一位网友讲到2012年得到的生物再生能源合约过后,自己也跟着深入研究它。

Basically, I bought in YFG is just for short-term speculation and purely study the details for year 2013. Someone has alerted me about the biomass contract (awarded in Jul-12) in my blog. Due to this, I have made a study on it.


发现这个生物再生能源合约可不简单。瞬间,自己觉得这次的买入不再是投机了。反而是一题很不错的投资。考虑了公司的未来与风险对比,自己再也找不到一个理由不去投资它。
【裕丰】是一个仙股,也是建筑股。对他有兴趣的人应该不多。我就挑战多数人不做的投资来考考个人的眼光。

The biomass contract looks impressive. Feel like I should not treat this buy as speculation, but it is worth to treat as a good investment. After considered the possible of risk vs return, I found no reason why should I avoid it for longer term of investment. YFG is a penny stock and also involve in construction business. This should make most of the investor avoid to invest it. Anyway, I would like to make a challenge by invest on it and to prove my own judgement.

写以下的分析来回答哪位网友的看法:

做建筑生意的公司,不必太在意去预测短期的业绩。需要看的东西是工程几时完成和能影响业绩的数目。然后就拉长来看(一两年后的效果)和耐心的去等。
APSB是从TNB得到这个13MW Biomass Power Generation Plant的工程,合约是21年。建厂的这个责任,APSB给了YFG的子公司做,工程价值是RM110mil。建成后,YFG的子公司也得到五年的管理和保养合约(不包燃烧材料),每年RM4.9mil价值,到时再由APSB决定会不会跟YFG续约(RM4.9mil x 110%
建厂的附带款条件是,部分钱以股份来交换(RM17mil)。其他,是APSB通过Term Loan(RM88mil)的贷款和APSB的股东出小部分钱(RM5mil)来买APSB的股份。APSB会以五个阶段来发出17mil ICPS sharesYFG。整个工程,会在24个月内完成。最新的季报讲,工程会在Q2FY15完成。这代表,2013年尾已经开工了。通常,付款都有credit term的限期,可能是30/60/90天。
其实,Q1FY14最新的季报,Segment Reporting,你可以看到Customer A贡献了RM19,738,452。这个数目,就是第一期Term Loan付款的数目。这个数目,加上股东的付款和部分的ICPS share就是等于24.5mil。
个人看法,这个合约能带给公司一个稳定的收入,毕竟合约是固定的数目。只要公司能够好好控制建筑,管理和保养的费用,赚多少都是在公司的预测范围。公司未来的大方向是要制造一个比较稳定的收入。如果你是老板,这个工程不能达到应有的效应,你会接吗?肯定不会是为了要得到合约而接来做吧?
这个合约值得RM110mil,管理层预测税前盈利率是大概20%。代表,这两年内的收入是RM22mil。比如,扣除25%的税,净盈利是RM16.5mil。这等于每季有RM2.06mil的净盈利(除8)。。。好像很高?不懂是不是还须扣除其他行政开支。如果要保守来算,就给他10-15%税前盈利率好了。要记得,工程完成后,还有每年价值RM4.9mil管理和保养稳定合约。我预测,管理和保养的合约会很好赚。所以,盈利率应该会比较高。
单单讲到这个生物再生能源工程,看来也对公司的贡献也不错。还有其他手上的工程的收入。剩下的分析,就交给大家慢慢去思考思考。。。

My reply (analysis) to Carson88's comment:

For company involve in construction business, I will not predict the business result in short-term, but will look on its contract's value and completion time-frame. Follow by judge the impact from the contracts within 1-2 years. Then, just buy in and wait patiently.

TNB awarded a 21 years contract on 13MW Biomass Power Generation Plant project to APSB. Whereby, APSB awarded the construction, operation and maintenances contract to YFG. Pls see the details below:

"A fully owned subsidiary of YFG has on 10th July 2012 entered into an Operating and Maintenance Agreement (O&M Agreement) with Agni Power Sdn. Bhd. to undertake the operation, maintenance and repair services of the 13MW Biomass Power Generation Plant with 10MV exportable energy to be built, production and supply of electric power to Tenaga Nasional Berhad for a term of Five (5) years  from the date on which APSB shall have certified to YFG under the Engineering, Procurement and Construction Contract (EPC Contract) by means of a Substantial Completion Certificate that APSB has taken over that part of the Proposed Power Plant required to be completed from YFG at an Initial Maintenance Fee amounting to RM4.9 million per annum.

The Initial Maintenance Fee shall include the labour costs, power consumption, water consumption but shall exclude the supply of raw empty fruit bunches of oil palm trees which shall be used as fuel for the Proposed Power Plant and insurances for the Proposed Power Plant.


The parties agree that One (1) year prior to the expiry of the Term, APSB shall have the right to determine whether to further renew the Term and the Maintenance Fee shall be reviewed and increased by a rate of ten per centum (10%) of the Initial Maintenance Fee."

The deal between YFG and APSB is as below, which partial payment (RM17mil) will go through issue of ICPS to YFG. (Represents 19% of the total issued and paid up capital of APSB.)
YFG
YFG - Biomass Contract's Payment Details

The power plant construction has started on Q4FY12 and will complete on Q2FY15. The first payment has been reflected on YFG's balance sheet at Q1FY14 (refer to segment reporting of the quarter report).

The rationale for entering into the O&M Agreement is to fit into YFG’s strategy to diversify its business by providing operation and maintenance services in order to bring in recurring revenue. Once the Proposed Power Plant has been successfully completed and commissioned, the O&M Agreement is expected to bring in recurring revenue which will contribute positively to YFG’s future consolidated earnings and net assets.

The management expects to derive an expected pre-tax margin of approximately 20% arising from EPC contract, representing an estimated pre-tax profit of approximately RM22mil over the 2-year duration of the proposed project. Let's say if the tax is 25%, the total net profit will be RM16.5mil or equivalent to RM2.06mil quarterly (total 8 quarters). It looks a lot? Not sure whether still need to minus off the administration fee. To be conservative, we can give it at 10%-15% discount. To be remind that there will be another RM4.9mil/year arise from maintenance work as recurring income for the company. Normally, maintenance work will come with good profit margin.

Purely look on this biomass contract, it will definitely bring a good impact on initial and recurring income for company. What if by considering other on hand contracts awarded at 2013, valued at more than RM500mil? I will let you all to think about it...

资料来源(Source):
http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/subweb.nsf/all/8B547C11DFFE9A8A48257AC3001A98A1/$File/PJI%20-%20Circular%20(Dated%2027%2011%2012).pdf

之前关于【裕丰】分析(Previous analysis for YFG):基本投机篇:YFG】

Wednesday, 23 October 2013

基本投机篇:YFG

平时除了投资在基本好的股,偶尔也会投机在基本不超烂和看到有一点甜头的股。只要那些甜头能带来比较大的胜算,我还是会买入少许治手痒。这样的股,基本就一眼带过。重点都是做甜头的调查。

YFG的前名为PJI。主要做建筑和房地产的生意。
甜头如下:
1. 手中拥有超过5亿的工程。去年整年的营利才1.35亿。公司也正在投标着7亿多的工程。
2. 咸鱼翻身的效应。
3. 技术面。

风险如下:
1. 公司的现金低,工程收不到钱分分钟会导致公司黄飞鸿收档。
2. 有些工程大,限期又短。不能准时交工,随时中罚钱。
3. 没股息,股价变死水一般,到头来什么都得不到反而错失投资其它好股的机会。

投资在好基本的股,风险都不能避免。所以,投机在基本不稳的股,风险就变得更大。还是老土的再说一句,买卖自负!

Aside from invest in good fundamental stock, I do buy stock for speculation purpose. But it must come with reasonable requirements and the stock must not to be a company with very bad result. For this kind of speculation with FA, just take a brief look on fundamental figure will do. Focus is more on some key-point which is able bring up the share price.

YFG, known as PJI in the past, is mainly doing construction and property business.
Below are the key-points to speculate:
1. On hand contract with more than RM500mil. Last fiscal year's revenue is only RM135mil. Company is still actively tendering for more jobs worth about RM700mil.
2. The effect of salt fish revival.
3. Technical chart looks good.

Below are the risks:
1. Cash level is very low. If receivable unable turn into cash during or after project completion, company may face bankruptcy.
2. Certain on hand contracts come with big value and short completion time-frame. If job fail to meet the timeline, company may be penalised for late delivery.
3. No dividend. If the share price remain flat for long time, you may get nothing and also miss out opportunity to invest in other good stocks.

We have to face risk even invest in strong fundamental stock. Thus, the risk will be greater for speculation. Buy at your own risk!


YFG

YFG to build affordable homes (9-Sep-13)

Friday, 11 October 2013

UMSNGB: 卖掉香港的子公司 (Disposal of fully owned subsidiary in HK)

给一个简单的结论:香港的这个子公司,接下来的未来都不看好。卖掉它,不但可以避免每季的亏损,还可以挤出更多的现金来发展公司的生意。简直是个天大的好消息!

Provide a brief summary: Disposal of this fully owned subsidiary (HK), shall avoid further loss incur to the company as well as rise up the capital for CAPEX purpose. It is definitely a great news to the company!

TRANSACTIONS (CHAPTER 10 OF LISTING REQUIREMENTS): RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS UMS-NEIKEN GROUP BERHAD ("UMS-Neiken" or "the Company") Proposed Disposal by UMS-Neiken of Its Entire Shareholding in High Project Limited, a Wholly-Owned Subsidiary of the Company

UMS-NEIKEN GROUP BERHAD

TypeAnnouncement
SubjectTRANSACTIONS (CHAPTER 10 OF LISTING REQUIREMENTS)
RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS
DescriptionUMS-NEIKEN GROUP BERHAD ("UMS-Neiken" or "the Company")
Proposed Disposal by UMS-Neiken of Its Entire Shareholding in High Project Limited, a Wholly-Owned Subsidiary of the Company

Please refer to the attachment for details of the announcement.
This announcement is dated 11 October 2013.


Announcement Info

Company NameUMS-NEIKEN GROUP BERHAD  
Stock NameUMSNGB    
Date Announced11 Oct 2013  
CategoryGeneral Announcement
Reference NoCA-131011-57450


UMSNGB

Thursday, 10 October 2013

UMSNGB: 噢亿噢 O.E.O.

遵守自己的承诺来做个交代。之前的调整,我还是一直守。也答应适当的时候,把盈利放出来。这将会是我第一次和最后一次的买卖交代。改次跟随买入的人,还是那句,买卖自负。

股票投资的回报,不是一朝一日的事。
买入前,做功课。买入后,耐心等。思想乱,回头想。

恭喜那些有耐心跟我一起守票的战友!大家现在都属于不败之身的地步了。接下来的战场,就由你自己去学习和体会。。。

Just to keep my promise. I still keeping the share during recent market adjustment. As I mentioned, I will post up the profit when the time is right. This will be my first and last announcement. In future, for those who follow to buy in, you shall always trade at your own risk.

Don't be too greedy and hurry to aim for instant profit. You won't able to make it for every time.
Do your homework before buy in. Be patient after you buy in. When get panic, goes back to the starting point and re-think again.

Congratulation to my allies who dare to hold and ride through the panic moment! Your position now is very very safe. Just go ahead to fight and learn the coming battle strategy by your own...

UMSNGB

Wednesday, 28 August 2013

UMSNGB: Q2FY13 业绩检讨 (Q2FY13 result review)

我只简单几句来带过这次的业绩:
管理层把经营开支控制到很好。也成功提高产品的销售利润率,应该开始有销售高利润率的新产品。香港那边没前途了。越南还需要时间起步。新厂也是需要时间。全部事情只是时间的问题。。。
I just provide a simple brief for this quarter result:
Company did very well in control the operating expenses. The profit margin managed to maintain at good level as well. I take a guess... this may due to launch of new product with higher profit margin. For Hong Kong segment, it is not impressive at all. Anyway, it is expected. For Vietnam operation, it is yet reflect any contribution but still in progress to setup the production. Still need more time to utilise the newly acquired factory/land. Just a matter of time for everything get better...

顺便送大家以下的一个图表。慢慢享受它的内涵。
Give an informatics chart for reference. Use your sense to analysis it.
UMSNGB


Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/6/2013

UMS-NEIKEN GROUP BERHAD


Financial Year End31/12/2013
Quarter2
Quarterly report for the financial period ended30/06/2013
The figureshave not been audited
  • Default Currency
  • Other Currency
Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
30/06/2013

INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
30/06/2013
30/06/2012
30/06/2013
30/06/2012
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1Revenue
19,243
21,925
37,729
41,046
2Profit/(loss) before tax
2,836
2,860
5,084
4,640
3Profit/(loss) for the period
1,944
2,015
3,528
3,176
4Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
1,944
2,015
3,528
3,176
5Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
2.47
2.53
4.49
3.98
6Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00


AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
0.7800
0.7400

Sunday, 25 August 2013

VITROX: Q2FY13 业绩检讨 (Q2FY13 result review)

这次的业绩,表面上看来还是令人“失望”。其实,这次公司有不错的表现。
The latest quarter result looks 'disappointing' again. In fact, the company is running on correct path.

VITROX
Source: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1383077

这次的重点,应该放在销售量和经营开支。看了以下的图表,应该能发觉其中的奥秘。我所看得到的是,订单维持和成长的现象。
For this round, the focus should put on revenue and operating expenses. By looking at below table, you may find the answer. From what can I see, the order at least maintain at this level and there is room for further growth.

VITROX

管理层对接下来的评语,还是很积极的一面。如果你是一位有耐性的投资者,以现在的价钱,我还是觉得没问题去守和慢慢累积。
From the prospect highlighted by company, still looking good on its growth and mainly through expansion. Personally, I feel it still worth to hold or accumulate slowly if you are patient enough.

VITROX
Source: http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/edmswebh.nsf/all/15A7C036BBA7C5EF48257BDF005D8593/$File/ViTrox%20-Q2'13.pdf (page 7)

关于公司的盈利率的看法:
其一,为了要抢占市场份额,降低产品的价钱是可理解的。这些都是属于竞争性的付出。产品便宜,打出名堂,往后就以销售量来平衡回公司的盈利。
其二,公司最值钱的资产就是员工。新科技的研究和开发,都是靠他们。新产品必须一直推出,才能继续生存得更好。这些都是细水长流的费用。如果某个产品卖不多,盈利率自然会变低,因为研究和开发产品的必须费用已经是固定了(付出了)。以同样的理论,如果某个产品卖的特别多,盈利率自然会变得比较好。在市场慢慢复苏,消费能力提高,订单自然变的好。一样的花费(R&D),卖得多,盈利率的数目又变得不一样了。

A view on Profit Margin:
First, in order to capture better market share, lower the product price to make it more attractive is consider reasonable. This is a normal counter measure you have to pay off. If your product is consider cheap or reasonable, you will able to create the popularity and customer's confident. The return is to gain more selling volume and push up your earning.
Second, employee is the most important assets for the company. They are the one to make new product through R&D and make the company always stay at the front line in technology world. All this required continuous expenses. If product selling volume is low, the profit will lower by R&D expenses that already spend. At other word, when product selling volume is high, the same expenses will able to generate better revenue and the profit margin will increase accordingly. Profit margin will bounce back significantly when the market is recovering with better orders.

其他关于公司的资料:
1. 本地顾客占了33%的盈利。其余的67%的盈利都是由外地贡献。台湾,墨西哥,还有一个国家(忘了)占了大部分。
2. 主要以美金交易。本地的市场有一半也是以美金交易。
3. 已经开始打入电子业以外的生意。比如:医药,车业,等等。
4. 新厂已经用了一半。(空间放机械,必须品。并不代表产能率。)
5. 重复性的收入,通常都是产品卖给顾客后的三,四年所提供之类的服务。现在贡献很少,四,五年后才会比较明显。

Additional information related to company:
1. Local customers captured about 33% of revenue. Another 67% is from oversea customers. Taiwan, Mexico, (forgotten another one), are the main contributors.
2. Transaction mainly is in USD. Half of the local sales also dealing in USD currency.
3. Product is not only applicable in E&E, but also in other sectors like medical, automotive, etc.
4. The new factory, half of the space already occupied. (Equipment and necessary things, but does not mean to capacity usage).
5. Contribution from recurrent income like after sales service & upgrade feature, is still low. Expect need a longer time, 4-5 years to see a better figure.

Sunday, 21 July 2013

信托基金,可以投资吗?Say YES to Mutual Fund?

其实,在没有办法中的办法,投资信托基金也是一个不错的选择。好过放在所谓无风险又稳赚的。。。(不多讲,自己想)。长期的平均回酬率要多过6%,不难。过去10年的记录里,很多信托基金都到达平均每年10%以上的回酬率。

投资信托基金,很多人都可以做。其实,又有多少人有真正投资的知识呢?买卖某个信托基金,要何如做决定?大部分人只是单单看过去的成绩。真的那么简单?坦白讲,没那么简单。运气和时机对,就可以那样做。不然,还是有风险。

投资信托基金,也必须下点功夫。做了功课,就懂得那个选择会达到比较有把握的效果。再配合一套的策略,就可以把回酬和风险找个平衡点。

曾经看过有人讲,如果信托基金只能多赚1-2%,又必须付销售费,情愿不去动被保护的资本,好过拿去买信托基金来“博”。其实,不要小看这1-2%。如果你会算,扣除销售费后,长期的效果可不小!

详情不方便公开讲解。有兴趣者,可以email我交流。

If you have limited choice to utilize certain capital, mutual fund investment indeed is a good investment, compared to just putting it aside for low risk and stable return way. In long term run, to get a return at above 6% should not be too difficult. According to the past 10 years records, there are many funds achieved CARG at above 10% .

A lot of people can invest in mutual fund. But, how many of them have a good knowledge in investment? What is the method to decide buy/sell a fund? Most of them are purely based on past performance result. Is that simple? To be frank, it should not be that way. If you have the luck and in right timing, I would say yes. Otherwise, you will be in risk.

Same as stock investment, homework must be done in order to invest in mutual fund. Once homework prepared, there will be an indication for us to know which fund can perform better in future. Beside, by equip a good strategy along, it will help to balance up the risk and return of fund investment.

Some people would say, if the return from mutual fund is just 1-2% higher, by considering it have to pay service charge, it is rather to just keep at shielded place. If you pay attention to do the calculation, also after consider the service charge, you will find that the different of the return is not small at all!

Not going to talk in details right here. If interested, pls email me for sharing.

ASW2020 vs 股票(Stock)- 回顾篇(Review)

回顾之前卖掉所谓无风险又稳赚的政府基金来买入股票的决定。19-Jul-13卖了。限期只是大概半年。成绩不错吧?股票vs政府基金,那个才是风险低,回酬高?

Review to the decision on sold out government fund (so called no risk and provide good return) and converted to stock investment. Finally, the stock has been sold on 19-Jul-13. Investment period is about half year. The result is amazing. Stock vs Government fund, which one give low risk and high return?

BJFOOD


写这贴不是要炫耀自己。其实是要让不懂得投资的人看,用基本知识去投资股票的好处。
This post is not to show off but to let those who unaware of the great benefit by using fundamental investment knowledge to invest in stock market.

之前的贴。Previous post.
http://whytoocare-y2k.blogspot.com/2013/03/asw2020-vs-stock.html

Saturday, 6 July 2013

UMSNGB: 公司的结构 (Company Structure)

UMSNGB

http://www.umsneiken.com/index.asp?p=/static/companystructure.html

Thursday, 27 June 2013

[7227] UMSNGB

UMSNGB
UMS-NEIKEN
http://www.umsneiken.com/
http://www.unitedms.com.my/
http://www.neiken.com/index.htm

【UMS集团】[UMS-NEIKEN]

最近两年的收入都属于平平无奇的一间公司,看来没什么特别。其实,公司近两年的净盈利都有明显的增长。主要是净盈利率从3%提高去7-8%。公司的负债很低和现金流也挺不错。是一间非常健康的小资本公司。只有80mil的股数。

部分人都很怕投资在小资本的公司。主要原因是怕公司分分钟会关门大吉。不管什么投资,风险观察都很重要的。一间公司在经济风暴时,将会面临很大的考验,如果公司的净盈利率低,负债高,现金流不好会导致周转不来,等等。以刚刚讲的基本分析,【UMS集团】可以讲是很有能力撑得过这一关。

From the past 2 years' revenue record, it looks nothing special on this company. Basically, the company net profit margin has been improved significantly in past 2 years. Its rose from 3% to 7-8%. Company has a low debt position and its free cash flow is doing great as well. From this, we can see that it is a very healthy small cap company with only 80mil number of shares issued.

Part of the investors are afraid to invest in small cap company. One of the reason is afraid the company unable to overcome economic crisis. During economy crisis, company will fall into bankruptcy position if it come with low net profit margin, high debt, weak FCF, etc. From the FA, [UMSNGB] has shown its capability to overcome this situation.
UMSNGB
Y-Y Fundamental Analysis
以最近业绩的观察,平均一个季的EPS大概有2sen。2011年开始,业绩有比较明显的改变。2012年变得更加客观。

From the recent results, the average quarter eps is about 2sen. Since year 2011, the result is getting better and it become much more obvious during year 2012.
UMSNGB
Q-Q Results
2012年的年报,三十大股东里,KP FELDA占了7.52%。如果大家有留意BURSA公布的信息,KP FELDA所持有的票数,已经少过5%了。反而另一个股东,YEO GUIK HIANG,从原有的2.83%+提高到5%以上。个人预测,主要的变化都是从两者转手。转手后的股价,就节节上升。

In 2012 annual report, in 30 top shareholders list, KP FELDA owns 7.52%. From BURSA announcement, it shown that KP FELDA share holding has been reduced to less than 5%. At the same time, YEO GUIK HIANG has increased her share holding percentage from 2.83%+ to above 5%. Suspect the recent changeover is made by them. Once the share holding changed, the share price has rose up significantly.
UMSNGB
Top 30 Shareholders
从分部报告,可以看到大马的业绩正在成长。香港的业绩从2008年就开始倒退。越南的厂在2010年就开始没有运作。管理层讲到,越南的厂将会在今年的下半部开始从新运作。近期都看到很多新闻和投资者讲在越南投资的公司是好的选择。这个好,那个好。如果是真的,那真的是太好了!

From the segment report, business in Malaysia is increasing while HK business is falling down since year 2008. Vietnam operating has been stopped since year 2010. According to management, Vietnam will re-commence its operation in 2nd half of this year. In recent time, found many news and investors are saying good on investment in Vietnam. If it is truth, then it will be great for the company.
UMSNGB
Segment Report
Q1FY13的业绩报告里讲到,最低薪金已经实行了。业绩还能够保持在EPS 2sen的水平。马币对美金强,对公司不利。最近反而是美金的趋势节节攀升。

Minimum wages policy had been implemented for the company since January 2013. Surprisingly, its Q1FY13 result still able to maintain at EPS 2sen level. The strengthening of RM against USD will add pressure to company profit margin. Anyhow, USD is very strong against RM in recent time. It is a good news for company.
UMSNGB
Source: http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/edmswebh.nsf/all/8BD11EB33147912548257B8B005D7B91/$File/UMS-Neiken%20Group%20Berhad%20-%201Q%20unaudited%20results%2031.03.2013.pdf (Page 13)

从2012的年报里,可以找到净盈利率提升的来源。管理层做了很多功夫在提高生产力,费用管理和库存管理。资产负债表能表现的那么好都是管理层把信贷控制和资金管理做的好的功劳。
管理层透露,最低薪金其实把公司的净盈利率压低了。为了减低成本,公司打算把越南的厂重新开始运作。以我个人的想法,这个举动可不是那么简单。老远跑去越南,当然想再次打入那边的市场吧!毕竟越南的基建和房地产应该还有很大的增长空间。

In 2012 annual report, we can found that the net profit margin improvement is due to improved operational efficiencies, tighter cost control measure and better inventory management. The Group's balance sheet is further strengthened through improved credit control and better funds management. To mitigate the higher labour costs resulting from the imposition of minimum wages, the Group will re-commence manufacturing operations at its existing factory in Vietnam. This is expect to be complete in 2nd half of 2013. I was thinking, this will be not that simple. I expect the company to further explore the Vietnam market with this move since the infrastructure and property sector still has a big room to grow.
UMSNGB
Source: http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/subweb.nsf/all/B5119F104F0F2C4C48257B6700252E37/$File/UMSNGB-AnnualReport2012.pdf (Page 7)

接下来,要进入主要的重点了。
让我们先进入一些关于公司的生产线的资料(源:公司的网页)。

Let's go for the attractive point. Before this, let's have a look on the company operation capacity info. (Source: Company's website).

UMSE started off initially by supplying 2 types of products for the Malaysian market with a production capacity of approximately 400,000 units per annum. As business grew due to increasing demand for its products and to cater for the increase in its products range, UMSE in 1994 moved to a wholly-owned, larger and better-equipped premises in Lot 5, Batu 17 1/2, Jalan Ipoh, Rawang Industrial Estate, Rawang, Selangor Darul Ehsan measuring 49,020 square feet, with a production capacity of approximately 5,000,000 units per annum. In line with this, UMSE increased its number of employees to more than 300 peoples until today.

In 1993, with increasing global demand, UMSE began exporting its products. In its efforts to increase production capacity and meet demands for its products in both the Malaysian and foreign markets, UMSE increased its production facility at its existing main manufacturing premises and set up additional production lines in a rented facility in Batang Kali, Selangor in 2001. Following this, UMSE's production capacity increased to approximately 9,000,000 units per annum.

>> 49,020sqft = 5,000,000 units per annum > 9,000,000 units per annum

On 1 July 2004, UMSE then relocated its production facility in Batang Kali, Selangor, to a new, wholly-owned plant located at Lot 659, Jalan Bukit Rawang, Taman Bukit Rawang Jaya, Batu 20, 48000 Rawang, Selangor Darul Ehsan which measures 21,200 square feet with a production capacity of 7,400,000 units per annum. The total production capacity as at the end of 2005 was 16,000,000 units per annum.

>> 21,200sqft = 7,400,000 units per annum > 16,000,000 units per annum


新闻(1):买厂
News (1) : Buy Factory
UMS-NEIKEN GROUP ACQUISRES FACTORY IN SINGAPORE FOR SGD1.41M (RM343M)
CLASSIFICATION: ACQUISITIONS/DISPOSALS & MERGERS
TYPE: Acq/Disposals/Mergers & Subscriptions/JVCOs/Demergers
10 February 2010
UMS-NEIKEN GROUP reported that 50% owned NEIKEN SWITCHGEAR (S) pl had on Feb 8, 2010 entered into an Agreement to acquire from CHIU-TENG @ TAGORE pl a one-storey factory on Tagore Lane, Singapore for a total consideration of SGD1.41m (RM3.43m), to set up its warehouse and office buildings.

>> 291sqm = 3,133sqft
>> The expected date of delivery of vacant possession of the Property shall be not later than 30 June 2012 and the expected date of completion of the Sale and Purchase Agreement of the Property shall be no later than 30 June 2014.
>> The Acquisition of the Property is used for setting up the Group’s own warehouse and office building in expanding and diversifying more range of products as well as the business operation in Singapore in long term.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/57694

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/58023

新闻(2):又买厂
News (2) : Buy Factory again
 UMS-Neiken unit buys land in Selangor
 by hlk on Mon 01 Aug 2011, 21:02
UMS-Neiken Group Bhd's wholly-owned subsidiary, UMS-Neiken (M) Sdn Bhd (UMSN), is acquiring a leasehold vacant land in Selangor from Federal Poultry Industries Company Sdn Bhd for RM2.036 million.

In a filing to Bursa Malaysia today, UMS-Neiken said the company intended to construct a new warehouse on the land measuring approximately 92,558.49 sq ft for use by the company and/or other subsidiaries.

UMSN is principally engaged in the marketing and trading of electrical products and accessories.

The acquisition will be satisfied entirely in cash, which will be financed through internally generated funds and/or external bank borrowings.

The exercise is expected to be completed by the first quarter of next year. -- Bernama
http://www.bursacommunity.com/t3514-ums-neiken-unit-buys-land-in-selangor

>> 92,558 sqft
>> the Acquisition is expected to be completed by the first quarter of 2012. (注意Q1FY12过后的业绩!)[ATTN: see the result right after Q1FY12!]

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/861564

新闻(3):再买厂
News (3) : Buy Factory again and again
UMS-NEIKEN GROUP ACQUIRES PROPERTY IN SINGAPORE FOR RM7.1M

CLASSIFICATION: ACQUISITIONS/DISPOSALS & MERGERS
TYPE: Acq/Disposals/Mergers & Subscriptions/JVCOs/Demergers
17 January 2013
UMS-NEIKEN GROUP reported that 50%-owned NEIKEN SWITCHGEAR (S) pl had on Jan 8, 2013 entered into an Agreement to acquire from CHUU TENG 8 pl one unit of light industrial factory with ancillary offices on the first floor in Tagore Industrial Avenue for SGD2.8m (RM7.1m). The building is yet to be completed, and the Company expects to be delivered vacant possession no later than end Dec 2015.

>> 319sqm = 3,435sqft
>> UMSN expects to complete the Proposed Acquisition not later than 31 December 2018
or 3 years after the date of delivery of vacant possession of the Property, whichever is
earlier.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1170681

新闻(4):又再买厂
News (4) : Buy Factory again, again and again
UMS-NEIKEN GROUP ACQUIRES FACTORY/OFFICE IN RAWANG FOR RM11.0M

CLASSIFICATION: ACQUISITIONS/DISPOSALS & MERGERS
TYPE: Acq/Disposals/Mergers & Subscriptions/JVCOs/Demergers
07 February 2013
UMS-NEIKEN GROUP reported that 100%-owned UMS-NEIKEN (M) s had on Feb 6, 2013 entered into an Agreement to acquire from KG POWER (M) sb a single-storey factory and 3-storey office building on 12,342 sq m of land in the Rawang Integrated Industrial Park for a cash consideration of RM11.0m.
The acquisition is for the Group's future expansion plans.

>> 12,342 sq m  = 132,923sqft (whole piece land)
>> Factory = 60,767sqft, Office & factory Building = 8,965sqft, Utility = 10,666sqft
>> Expect to complete by FY13Q2
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1193329
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1198037


摘要分析:
1)低估。现在的价PE才5.x。还没考虑未来新厂的贡献。
2)股息稳定。现在的价,少少有4%多的股息率。未来成长会变得更多。
3)公司买很多产业来增产。需要时间见效。现在买入是因为这个价已经很便宜了。未来增长,代表更便宜。
4)最近有基金和股东交易。占了3.x%。平均价应该在36sen范围。这个股的流动票很少。这个数目算很大了。主要是看到KP FELDA基金换手给其他人。(YEO GUIK HIANG)
5)股数少。才80mil。容易炒。(哈哈!)
6)越南的厂将会重新运作。管理层讲是为了减低运作费,因为最低薪金的关系。但是我预测公司也打算在那边发展。毕竟越南的基建和房产还有很大的上升空间。
7)最低薪金已经完全反映在Q1FY13的业绩里了。但是Q1FY13的业绩也很不错。这样证明管理层在管理运作费和生产效益满不错。
8)最近4个季的业绩,平均都有EPS 2sen多。如果经济没有大倒盘,预测业绩至少可以维持或提升。(参考买厂的新闻)
9)个人认为,比起邻居(新国,中国,香港),大马的房地产还算便宜。只要房地产不倒,生意值还有上升的空间。
10)大马的生意占了80%。香港占了20%。大马的业绩有明显提升。香港开始2008年已经到了顶点。接下来,主要是靠大马的贡献。也期待越南能带来正面的消息。

这样低估又有前景的公司,还需等待更便宜的股价吗?如果能做到更低的价位,真的恭喜大家!

Summary:
1) Undervalued. Current share price, it is rating at PE 5.x. This is yet consider of contribution from those acquired factories in the future.
2) Dividend is very consistent. With current share price, its DY will be 4% plus. It will be more when company is growing.
3) Company acquired few factories to increase its capacity. It may need time to get thing done. Current share price is cheap. With capacity increase in future, it mean the current share price is even cheaper.
4) Recent share exchange between KF FELDA and YEO GH is more than 3%. It is a huge traded volume for this company. I guess the average share price will be around 36sen. Something good behind this changeover?
5) Number of share issued is very low. Only 80mil. It is easy to "speculate"!
6) Vietnam factory will re-commence its operation in 2nd half of 2013. According to management, it is to reduce cost due to minimum wages. But I guess the company also trying to explore the market there since infrastructure and property sector still have more room to grow.
7) Minimum wages already reflected in Q1FY13 result but it still looking great on the figure. This proved the management did a good job in cost control and operation efficiency.
8) For the rolling 4 quarters result, averagely each quarter come with EPS 2sen plus. If there is no economy crisis, I expect its result will at least able to maintain or become better. (refer to new factories being acquired.)
9) Personally, I feel that Malaysia property is still very cheap compared with Singapore, China and HK. As long as the property sector still doing good, company revenue should able to grow further.
10) Malaysia business contribution is about 80%. HK captured another 20%. Malaysia result is on uptrend whereby HK segment already reached its peak at 2008. Next, Malaysia segment will play a big role to sustain the company grow. Hopefully, its Vietnam operation will bring a great news in future.

The company is undervalued and also come with good prospect. Thus, I don't expect any more cheaper share price to offer. If yes, then you are so lucky to buy at much cheaper value!